A random walk through the Gibson paradox

Evidence to support the Gibson paradox is often given in the form of a simple correlation between the nominal interest rate and the log of price level, or in the form of a simple linear regression between these two variables. Authors then show, using standard procedures of statistical inference, that the price level possesses a significant coefficient. We argue that this class of evidence is spurious since the nominal interest rate and the price level (both integrated variables) do not form a cointegrated system.     

Futures in global space//www.models.gis.media : [BBR]1[/BBR]

Geographers deal with global and local space and their interrelationships and thus bring new insights, perspectives, and methods to global questions. This is appealing to futurists since the principle of ‘think globally-act locally’ has been an inspiration for many years. In this paper I explore how old and new approaches in geography, as well as new information technologies such as the World Wide Web (WWW) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), might contribute to global modeling. I briefly review also the history of global economy models to discover lessons for future attempts to construct global models, not least how prevailing paradigms and institutional expediency determine the intellectual effort, and its impact. I then describe some of the new directions being undertaken by global modelers, quantitative geographers and regional scientists in the 1990s, and the possibilities and challenges for the next few years, and their contribution to the knowledge building process and its context.     

Firm Responses to Income Inequality and the Cost of Time

The full cost of shopping includes the cost of the shopper's time.When that cost increases, stores have incentives to respond in waysthat economize on shopper time. One response is to substitute in-storelabor for shopper time. Pooled cross-sectional tests using data fromsuburban and city food stores show that various labor intensitymeasures are higher where the opportunity cost of shopper time ishigher. We distinguish between income and cost of time effects byshowing that store labor intensity depends on the composition ofincome between male and female members of the family, and notonly on the level of family income. We obtain similar results for twoother ways that food stores can economize on shopper time – locatingcloser to the customer and offering more check out stations withina store. We also use a unique shopping time survey to showthat shoppers from higher income households make fewer visitsto food stores, spend less time per visit in the check out line andare more likely to shop at stores with longer hours.     

Development,distribution and the future

The distribution of world output between countries, and between social groups within countries, is central to long-term development prospects. Unequal shares mean unequal influence over the future direction of world affairs. The level and structure of demand are conditioned by the distribution of financial resources; while the power to influence the course of development is itself tied to the resources that can be marshalled in support of one's objectives. Two forecasting techniques, scenario construction and global modelling, are used to assess these relationships and explore the consequences of one possible ‘future history’ in which distribution worldwide does eventually begin to improve. Striking limitations to most development strategies are identified; without a wide-ranging set of changes, the prospects for improved distribution—and relief of poverty—are bleak.     

A model of technology, domestic distribution, and North-South relations

This article describes the macroeconomic model used in an ongoing study of technology policies and North-South relations. Other aspects of the study have been described elsewhere [1,2]. We examine here the rationale for the theoretical structure used in the model, the details of the equations, and a computation of solutions. To illustrate the dynamics of the model, a brief discussion is also given of the preliminary results that indicate critical relationships between domestic technology and income distributions and the North-South terms of trade. The results are based on a calibration of the model using data for Brazil and the United Kingdom.     

Economic Implications of WTO Negotiations on Non‐agricultural Market Access

The economic implications of current WTO negotiations are likely to be far reaching. The World Bank and UNCTAD estimate annual global gains in agriculture and non‐agricultural products (including fish) of about $70−150 billion each under various scenarios and technical assumptions. Liberalising trade in services could be even more important, especially if agreement were reached to facilitate the temporary movement of labour (Mode 4 under the General Agreement on Trade in Services, GATS). Some qualifications, however, are in order. First, gains are likely to be spread unevenly across countries and across sectors; and, second, short‐term adjustment costs might precede long‐term gains. Much depends on how ambitious liberalisation is and on policies to facilitate adjustment. This paper examines the Doha mandate in non‐agricultural market access (NAMA) and the current state of the WTO negotiations, in particular some key proposals being considered at the December 2005 Ministerial Meeting in Hong Kong. We analyse various scenarios and their implications for trade, welfare, output, employment, revenues and preferences, as well as the distributional effects across countries and sectors. We note possible adjustment problems related to balance of payments and structural adjustment, as well as revenue and preference losses. These suggest the need for ‘aid for trade’ to help developing countries realise gains possible from WTO negotiations.     

Models of world food supply,demand and nutrition

Computer simulation of the world problematique offers a policy maker an interesting opportunity to see the dynamics of relationships within and between the global subsystems of which food and agriculture is one. The four major modelling studies reviewed in this article make assumptions about the possible level of food supply, technological and economic impacts on production, ecological consequences, and social and political factors influencing demand. Following their analysis of agricultural data inputs in all these areas, the authors discuss the type of policy measures likely to be recommended on the basis of global modelling.