Default contagion and systemic risk in loan guarantee networks

This paper studies systemic risk in the Chinese debt market stemming from inter‐corporate loan guarantees using field data from Zhejiang Province. We apply a weighted and directed network model to analyse the implications for default contagion and systemic risk under different stress testing scenarios. The empirical results indicate that the topology of the loan guarantee network is close to a ‘scale‐free’ structure, which is known to be robust against accidental failures but vulnerable to coordinated attacks. Hence, the network is able to cope with idiosyncratic shocks resulting from single company failures, but can easily suffer from more widespread contagion if a group of systemically important companies are hit by a targeted shock. We further demonstrate that within our sample of small and medium‐sized enterprise (SME) companies, increasing leverage reduces network stability and exacerbates the effects of contagion. More lenient bank lending policies increase the survival rate of sample companies and thereby reduce the losses from default contagion.     

In difficult times: influences of attitudes and expectations on training and redeployment opportunities in a hospital contraction programme

This article explores reasons behind the low take–up of training and redeployment opportunities in a three–year downsizing programme in a National Health Service (NHS) mental health hospital. It examines these from an interpretive paradigm, identifying social–psychological effects on barriers and motivation to training and redeployment. In reporting factors that inhibit the movement of staff from the hospital the findings indicate that the direction of even a well–planned and positively intentioned programme can be confounded by the responses of employees faced with an uncertain future. When drawing up restructuring programmes involving retraining and redeployment, managers need to take into account the anticipated profound reactions of those affected.     

Credit ratings quality: The perceptions of market participants and other interested parties

The global credit crunch of 2008 and related sub-prime mortgage crisis of 2007 have made credit ratings agencies (CRAs) the focus of international attention. In particular, the quality of ratings information and the responsibilities CRAs owe to financial markets have come under intense scrutiny. Specifically, commentators, politicians, and regulators have expressed concern at the involvement CRAs might have had in creating global financial instability. However, the term ratings quality remains largely absent from the academic literature.This paper constructs a measurement instrument to capture ratings quality provided by CRAs, and assesses differences in perceptions of ratings quality amongst four stakeholder groups in public debt markets. Two macro-constructs of ratings quality are identified, labelled Technical Qualities and Relationship Qualities. The two macro-constructs are measured by ten micro-attributes, labelled: Cooperation; Independence; Internal Processes; Issuer Orientation; Methodology; Reputation; Service Quality; Shared Values and Norms; Transparency; and Trust. Each micro-attribute is operationalised into individual items, and then empirically tested using data obtained in the UK from 121 issuers, 75 non-debt issuing financial managers, 90 investors, and 120 other interested parties.The data suggest that ratings quality involves, in order of importance: the CRA's reputation; those values and norms of the CRA shared by users; the methodologies employed by the CRA; the independence of the CRA; and internal processes within the CRA. Multivariate analysis of variance finds no statistically significant variation between the groups for Technical Qualities factors. However, issuers rate Relationship Qualities and its micro-attributes of Trust, Issuer Orientation, and Service Quality higher than other market participants; a finding that reflects the dyadic relationship between the issuer's treasurer and lead analyst of the CRA. The paper concludes with a number of policy-relevant issues.     

The Role of Website Quality on PAD,Attitude and Intentions to Visit and Recommend Island Destination

This study investigates the effect of website stimuli on positive attitude and intentions to visit and recommend, through three emotional responses (pleasure, arousal and dominance). The model was tested regarding three island‐related websites. Findings show the role of emotions as mediators between website quality attitude and intentions. Arousal and dominance are revealed to be more important in the formation of a positive attitude than pleasure. Visual appeal and ease of use, followed by information, seem to be the most important components in forming a perception of the islands' website quality. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Larry Moss and the Struggle Against Racism by the Whately Professors of Political Economy

In this note, we highlight an important consideration of Larry Moss's life's work, the continual struggle within economics against racism. Larry initiated and supported the symposium on eugenics published by the American Journal of Economics and Sociology in July 2005. He edited the volume Social Inequality, Analytical Egalitarianism and the March Toward Eugenic Explanations in the Social Sciences in August 2008. These constitute obvious signs of Larry's concern.
He conjectured that the Trinity College Dublin political economists who held the Whately professorship should be thought of as a school. Such a school was in fact identified in 1850 by an outsider who pointed to their shared opposition to racial explanations within an institutional setting. That shared opposition allowed them to speak against the narrow interests of the rulers of the country. Of course, other political economists of the time, Mill in particular, were also emphatic in their anti-racism. Thus, not only do we need to take up Larry's challenge to describe the Trinity College school but we must also seek its connections with the Scottish-English group of anti-racists.     

A note on the multiple partners assignment game

In the assignment game of Shapley and Shubik [Shapley, L.S., Shubik, M., 1972. The assignment game. I. The core, International Journal of Game Theory 1, 11–130] agents are allowed to form one partnership at most. That paper proves that, in the context of firms and workers, given two stable payoffs for the firms there is a stable payoff which gives each firm the larger of the two amounts and also one which gives each of them the smaller amount. Analogous result applies to the workers. Sotomayor [Sotomayor, M., 1992. The multiple partners game. In: Majumdar, M. (Ed.), Dynamics and Equilibrium: Essays in Honor to D. Gale. Mcmillian, pp. 322–336] extends this analysis to the case where both types of agents may form more than one partnership and an agent's payoff is multi-dimensional. Instead, this note concentrates in the total payoff of the agents. It is then proved the rather unexpected result that again the maximum of any pair of stable payoffs for the firms is stable but the minimum need not be, even if we restrict the multiplicity of partnerships to one of the sides.     

卫生技术评估：澳大利亚的反映

本文分为三部分。第一部分主要是描述性的,列出了在澳大利亚应用卫生技术评估（HTA）的主要机构。首先,讨论了医疗用品管理局（Therapeutic Goods Administration,TGA）对HTA的应用。     

Developing pandemic communication strategies: Preparation without panic

Communication in the media regarding a potential avian influenza epidemic can serve to accurately and effectively inform the public OR misinform and contribute to unnecessary public panic and subsequent undesirable responses. Governments have time to develop communication strategies and specific messages that can effectively convey desired information at different stages of the anticipated pandemic. Effective social marketing incorporates the concepts of formative research, audience segmentation, and consumer focus. Based on the findings from earlier research on public awareness and understanding of bird flu, the collaborators of the project developed evidence-based advertising messages for two primary time-points in pandemic preparation and tested in a series of focus groups; modified them based on the findings; and then re-tested the final campaign. These findings provide important recommendations for the development of future social marketing campaigns in the event of pandemics or other public health crises.     

The Importance of Quality,Satisfaction, Trust,and Image in Relation to Rural Tourist Loyalty

In the past decade, tourism firms have become aware of the great benefits of maintaining a solid base of loyal customers. Because rural tourism is a relatively new phenomenon in some countries, the main antecedent of tourism loyalty remains infrequently studied in rural lodgings. In this work, a structural equations model is explored, with PLS technique, giving relevance to the interrelationships among image, quality, satisfaction, and trust and among these variables and the tourists' behavior variables. Instruments are identified and exploratory research was undertaken among rural tourists of the main rural lodgings in two border regions of Spain and Portugal. The results confirm image as a direct antecedent of perceived quality, satisfaction, trust, and loyalty for rural tourism, too. The analysis also confirmed that quality has a positive influence on satisfaction and loyalty, and trust has a positive influence on loyalty. Image is shown as a key factor to rural lodging managers. This study may help rural tourism managers to develop and implement effective relationship marketing strategies.