Stock returns and inflation with supply and demand disturbances

We account for the relation between stock returns and inflationwith two independent disturbances: supply shocks and demandshocks. Supply shocks reflect real output shocks and cause anegative relation between stock returns and inflation, whiledemand shocks are mainly due to monetary shocks and generatea positive relation between stock returns and inflation. Weshow, both theoretically and empirically, that the stock return-inflationrelation varies over time and across countries, depending onthe relative importance of the two types of shocks. Our empiricalevidence is based on pre- and postwar periods in the UnitedStates, as well as the postwar period in the United Kingdom,Japan, Germany.     

Thrill of victory and agony of defeat: Emotional rewards and sales force compensation

When sales territories are imbalanced, how do salespersons’ emotions-pride and disappointment in goal attainment-affect the choice between sales contests and sales quotas? First, profits in a quota system increase when pride in the weaker territory or disappointment in the stronger territory increase. In a sales contest, by contrast, feelings of disappointment reduce profits regardless of territory characteristics. Second, a simultaneous strengthening of pride and disappointment enhances the advantage of quota over contest created by territory imbalance. However, the interpersonal nature of the contest, pitting a salesperson against a known rival, may generate stronger emotions than a quota-system, with its impersonal sales targets. So, third, a contest may overcome the profit advantages of the quota-system. Fourth, if pride and disappointment are strongly felt because of territory imbalance, handicapping either contest or quota is unprofitable, and moreover, if pride and disappointment are greater in interpersonal situations, handicapping may be more detrimental to a contest than to a sales quota-system.     

Music as a Service as an Alternative to Music Piracy?

Despite increasing acceptance of digital channels, total sales in the music business decreased by 31 % from 2004 to 2010. Music piracy is still considered one of the main causes for this. However, several studies found no effects or even positive effects of illegal downloading on record sales. In the past, piracy has been counteracted especially by prosecution and legal offers. Music as a Service (MaaS) represents a new, differing distribution approach in digital music. In contrast to the well-known music platforms for so-called à-la-carte downloads, such as the iTunes Store, MaaS possesses two important characteristics: transmission (streaming instead of downloading) and pricing model (flat rate instead of pay-per-download). Therefore, the consumption of music by means of purchasing and downloading is replaced by a monthly payment service (paid MaaS) and an ad-supported (free MaaS) service. First user surveys suggest that many music pirates are making use of these offers. To find out if MaaS is an attractive distribution channel for music pirates, we developed a model to explain the intention to use MaaS based on the Theory of Planned Behavior. To empirically test this model, we surveyed 132 music pirates. Among others, the outcome shows that the intention to use free MaaS is mainly affected by the attitude towards MaaS, while using paid MaaS is predominantly a result of the influence of users’ closest peers. The attitude towards MaaS is positively influenced by the desire to receive music recommendations, the payment type (in the form of a flat rate model), and the relative advantage of MaaS compared to illegal choices.     

The duration of trade revisited

The recent literature on the duration of trade has predominantly analyzed the determinants of trade flow durations using Cox proportional hazards models. The purpose of this article is to show why it is inappropriate to analyze the duration of trade with continuous-time models such as the Cox model, and to propose alternative discrete-time models which are more suitable for estimation. In brief, the Cox model has three major drawbacks when applied to large trade data sets. First, it faces problems in the presence of many tied duration times, leading to biased coefficient estimates and standard errors. Second, it is difficult to properly control for unobserved heterogeneity, which can lead to parameter bias and bias in the estimated survivor function. Third, the Cox model imposes the restrictive and empirically questionable assumption of proportional hazards. In contrast, with discrete-time models there is no problem handling ties; unobserved heterogeneity can be controlled for without difficulty; and the restrictive proportional hazards assumption can easily be bypassed. By replicating an influential study by Besede? and Prusa (J Int Econ 70:339?C358, 2006b), but employing discrete-time models as well as the original Cox model, we find empirical support for each of these arguments against the Cox model. Moreover, when comparing estimation results obtained from a Cox model and our preferred discrete-time specification, we find significant differences in both the predicted survivor functions and the estimated effects of explanatory variables on the hazard. In other words, the choice between models affects the economic conclusions that can be drawn.     

Accounting for Latent Attitudes in Willingness-to-Pay Studies: The Case of Coastal Water Quality Improvements in Tobago

The study of human behaviour and in particular individual choices is of great interest in the field of environmental economics. Substantial attention has been paid to the way in which preferences vary across individuals, and there is a realisation that such differences are at least in part due to underlying attitudes and convictions. While this has been confirmed in empirical work, the methods typically employed are based on the arguably misguided use of responses to attitudinal questions as direct measures of underlying attitudes. As discussed in other literature, especially in transport research, this potentially leads to measurement error and endogeneity bias, and attitudes should rather be treated as latent variables. In this paper, we illustrate the use of such an Integrated Choice and Latent Variable model in the context of beach visitors?? willingness-to-pay for improvements in water quality. We show how a latent attitudinal variable, which we refer to as a pro-intervention attitude, helps explain both the responses from the stated choice exercise as well as answers to various rating questions related to respondent attitudes. The incorporation of the latent variable leads to important gains in model fit and substantially different willingness-to-pay patterns.     

Business intelligence for the masses

“The strongest trend in Business Intelligence today is still ‘Business Intelligence for the masses,’ (...). This movement is slowly but steadily bringing reporting and analysis capabilities to great numbers of end-users with a broader range of job titles and deeper locations in the corporate org chart than ever before.” (Philip Russom 2002)     

Reliability of Coordinates Obtained by MINISSA Concerning the Order of Presented Stimuli

In this work we study the stability of similarity judgements of sentences in regard to the presentation order of stimuli through MINISSA(Michigan–Israel–Nijmegen Integrated Smallest Space Analysis),which allows a Multidimensional Scaling with a triangular matrixof global similarity indices. Two forms of the same questionnaireby inverting the order of presentation of all possible unidirectionalcomparisons were applied. Results indicate that both forms areequivalent with similar structures and a high correlation coefficientbetween the judgements. We conclude a high stability of the usedprocedure. Furthermore, in comparison with a previous study, itcould be shown that the stability of solutions obtained by MINISSAis equivalent to that obtained by INDSCAL (INdividual DifferencesSCALing) which is not able to handle so many data as MINISSA.     

Controlling product returns in direct marketing

Many direct marketers offer price refunds to unsatisfied consumers, but as a result some consumers order products with no intention of keeping them. We show that such inappropriate returns can be controlled in a profitable way by imposing nonrefundable charges and that these charges increase with the value of the merchandise ordered. Data collected from clothing mail-order catalogs is consistent with our theory. The shipping and handling charges of these catalogs are usually nonrefundable and increase with the value of the merchandise ordered, even when the actual shipping and handling costs are constant.     

Double couponing: Pricing and consumer perspectives

Many supermarkets double manufacturer coupens. Are consumers' grocery bills lowered as a result? Our study of two double coupon supermarkets shows that for every ten cents of double-coupon value redeemed, the corresponding shelf price at a double coupon supermarket is higher by an estimated 3.5 cents compared to the price at other supermarkets. Given the higher shelf prices, the data also suggest that the majority of customers do not save money at double coupon stores, and adjust their shopping to account for the retail promotion.