Forecasting technology diffusion: a new generalisation of the logistic model

The present research proposes a new generalisation of the logistic model aiming at technology diffusion forecasting. Regarding criticisms and failures reported in the literature to apply logistic function for long-term forecasting, in our work we focused on short-term accuracy of forecast. To formulate the model, based on mathematical approximation, at first the differential equation governing the diffusion process is found and then by solving the derived differential equation, the forecast function is obtained. In all steps, mathematical tools from numerical analysis are used. We compared the New Generalized Logistic Model with eight of the most renowned models in the literature. The model led to more accurate fits and forecasts than those obtained from other models we applied for comparison.     

Estimating the gravity model when zero trade flows are frequent and economically determined

ABSTRACT

Since the 1950s, we have known that the presence of zero-valued dependent variables can seriously bias econometric estimates whether the zeros are included or excluded. Yet the widely-used gravity model is frequently estimated on samples that include large fractions of zeros. An influential paper by Santos Silva and Tenreyro – based on simulations that include no economically-determined zeros – concludes that the bias problems resulting from zeros and those resulting from heteroscedasticity and nonlinearity can be solved using the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood (PPML) model including the zero values. This paper begins by adapting the Santos Silva and Tenreyro experimental design to include economically-determined zeros to see whether this conclusion continues to hold. With this design, it finds that alternative estimators have lower bias than PPML. Changing to a Monte Carlo design that replicates the much-higher real-world frequency of predicted values near zero restores the finding of lower bias with the PPML estimator. The results highlight the need for very careful design of Monte Carlo experiments when evaluating alternative estimators of the gravity model.     

The making of a fiscal state in Song China, 960–1279

In light of the Schumpeterian paradigm, this article explores the rise of the tax state in eleventh‐century China and its further transition towards a fiscal state until the Mongol conquest in 1279. By the late eleventh century in the Song dynasty, two‐thirds of state revenues came from taxing non‐agricultural sectors, especially from the collection of excise. The Song state became the first sustainable tax state in global history, as manifested in three major aspects: monetization; indirect taxation; and centralization and professionalization in the tax administration. The boundary of the Song tax state was largely confined to urban settlements. In rural areas, the state gave up the collection of commercial taxes by farming out this right to local elites. In the twelfth century, as traditional tax revenues fell far short of supporting military defence, the Song administration utilized credit instruments. Around 1200, the amount of redeemable promissory notes first exceeded that of annual tax revenues. This shift from tax‐based public finance to credit‐based public finance completed the transition towards a fiscal state. Nonetheless, this development in the fiscal state was still at an early stage and proved to be unstable. Toward the end of the Southern Song, hyperinflation caused by the over‐issuance of promissory notes seriously threatened the economy.     

Social Identity Development and the Situation of Scientists and Engineers as New Leaders

The current study examined the retrospective experience of scientists and engineers as they became new unit leaders in science and engineering firms. The goal of the study was to propose a theory that would lead to a better understanding of how scientists and engineers can be successful in their evolution into new leaders. The evolution was considered in the context of Robledo, Peterson, and Mumford's (2012) 3‐Vectors Model to appreciate the situation in which new leaders in scientific and engineering firms find themselves. The evolution was then considered in the perspective of Social Identity Theory to understand the relational development of the scientist or engineer as a new leader. The theory that emerged was that without a sound understanding of both the situation and adaptation of a new sociotechnical identity, achieving success in the leadership role is, at best, uncertain. Identity development and situational understanding are both necessary to facilitate and expedite the transition of scientists and engineers into the new leadership role. The transition from staff‐level scientist to leader can be made more productive through individual and organizational action espoused herein. The implications reveal many aspects of importance for organizations, individuals, researchers, and educators in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) and similar technical disciplines.     

The Visual Representation of Border Tourism: Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) and Dokdo in South Korea

The demilitarized zone (DMZ) and Dokdo mark South Korea borders with North Korea and Japan respectively. Each borderland is a socially constructed symbolic cultural landscape shaped in part by tourism. In this study, a sample of 2202 online images was inspected using content‐semiotic analysis to understand how visual representation of border tourism works. It was found that visitors via social media and government censorship play major roles in constructing representations of (i) alienated borders with iconic war heritage attractions at the DMZ and (ii) an alienated and isolated Dokdo. Both borders highlight patriotic/nationalistic ‘flagging’ and the gaze across. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Facebook posting activity and the selective amplification of earnings disclosures

This study examines the determinants of Facebook activity levels with a particular focus on Facebook activity around earnings announcements. Facebook activity is generally higher for firms with higher levels of analyst following, individual ownership, and trading volume, indicating that it is responsive to investor demand effects. Facebook activity also increases around earnings announcements, with the increase being largely attributable to posts containing earnings news. In general, therefore, firms use Facebook posts to amplify earnings news. Such activity is selective, however; it is lower for firms with high levels of information asymmetry, for firms reporting earnings that exactly meet the consensus analyst forecast amount, and when the earnings news is negative but the accompanying price movement is positive. Hence, firms appear to use Facebook to manage the level of attention paid to earnings news.     

Relative Effects of IFRS Adoption and IFRS Convergence on Financial Statement Comparability

One of the primary objectives of both adoption of IFRS and convergence between IFRS and U.S. GAAP is to increase financial statement comparability. Using a unique setting in Germany, we compare the effectiveness of these two approaches in achieving this desired outcome. Our empirical tests show that both adoption and convergence lead to an increase in comparability after the new enforcement regulation in 2005. However, difference‐in‐differences tests show that adoption does not lead to a significant incremental increase in comparability beyond convergence. The findings of this study should be of interest to regulators and standard setters as they assess alternative methods of aligning domestic standards with IFRS.