Regret aversion and opportunity dependence

This paper provides an axiomatic model of decision making under uncertainty in which the decision maker is driven by anticipated ex post regrets. Our model allows both regret aversion and likelihood judgement over states to coexist. Also, we characterize two special cases, minimax regret with multiple priors that generalizes Savage's minimax regret, and a smooth model of regret aversion.     

Information infrastructure: Who builds broadband networks?

This paper examines the essential difference between the U.S. and Japan, when one considers information infrastructure. There are seven perception gaps between the U.S. and Japan concerning Information Infrastructure policies. These gaps must be understood in order to compare the countries' governmental policies in this area. In looking at the present circumstances, the essential question to answer concerns who is to build, own and operate the network(s) of the infrastructure. Liberalization is certain to be a central factor in the ongoing telecommunications debates. Now that customers have had a taste of the liberalized market-place, the movement toward more open markets will be difficult to stop. When considering options, it is necessary to pay close attention to standardized network access and the increasingly important role software plays. These issues are causing us to take a new approach to the traditional role played by regulators. They also force a closer look at the appropriate structure of utility companies. This paper addresses the above issues in hopes of stimulating dialog on the new telecommunications infrastructure paradigm.     

Quasi-stationary cardinal utility and present bias

This note gives an axiomatic foundation for utility exhibiting quasi-geometric discounting. In addition, it introduces a wider class of utility functions satisfying weakened stationarity, called quasi-stationary utility. Both are established as von Neumann-Morgenstern utility indices in a model of risk preference.     

EVALUATING HEDGING ERRORS: AN ASYMPTOTIC APPROACH

We propose a methodology for evaluating the hedging errors of derivative securities due to the discreteness of trading times or the observation times of market prices, or both. Utilizing a weak convergence approach, we derive the asymptotic distributions of the hedging errors as the discreteness disappears in several situations. First, we examine the hedging error due to discrete-time trading when the true strategy is known, which generalizes the result of Bertsimas, Kogan, and Lo (2000) to continuous Itô processes. Then we consider a data-driven strategy, when the true strategy is unknown. This strategy is free of parametric model assumptions, therefore it is expected to serve as a benchmark for the evaluation of parametric strategies. Finally, we consider a case study of the Black-Scholes delta-hedging strategy when the volatility is unknown in the proposed framework. The results obtained give us a prospect for further developments of the framework under which various parametric strategies could be compared in a unified manner.     

A duscrete-time model of high-frequency stock returns

A model of intraday financial time series is developed. The model is a dynamic factor model consisting of two equations. First, a rate of return of a ‘stock’ in a single day is assumed to be generated by serveral common factors plus some additive erros (‘intraday equation’). Secondly, the joint distribution of those common factors is assumed to depend on the hidden state of the day, which fluctuates according to a Markov chain (‘day-by-day equation’). Together the equations compose a hidden Markov model.

We investigate properties of the model. Among them is a central limit theorem for cumulative returns, which agrees with the well-known empirical phenomenon in the stock markets that the distributions of longer-horizon returns are closer to the normal. We propose a two-step procedure consisting of the method of principal components and the EM algorithm to estimate the model parameters as well as the unboservable states. In addition, we propose a procedure for predicting intraday returns. Finally, the model is fitted to empirical data, the Standard&Poors 500 Index 5 min return data, to see if the model is capable of describing intraday movements of the index.     

Information sharing,neighborhood demarcation,and yardstick competition: an empirical analysis of intergovernmental expenditure interaction in Japan

The Japanese government provides information on local fiscal performance through the Fiscal Index Tables for Similar Municipalities (FITS-M). The FITS-M categorize municipalities into groups of “similar localities” and provide them with the fiscal indices of their group members, enabling municipalities to use the tables to identify their “neighbors” (i.e., those in the same FITS-M group) and refer to their fiscal information as a “yardstick” for fiscal planning. We take advantage of this system to estimate municipal spending function. In particular, we examine whether the FITS-M help identify a defensible spatial weights matrix that properly describes municipal spending interactions. Our analysis shows that they do. In particular, geographical proximity is significant only between a pair of municipalities within a given FITS-M group, and it does not affect competition between pairs belonging to different groups even if they are located close to each other. This would suggest that the FITS-M work as intended, indicating that spending interaction among Japanese municipalities originates from yardstick competition and not from other types of fiscal competition.     

The Impact of Host Community on Destination (re)branding: A Case Study of Hiroshima

This paper investigates local groups’ opinions on interpreting a dark heritage site for the promotion of tourism and analyzes their roles in tourism activities, through a case study of Hiroshima, Japan. As the first city suffered nuclear bombing, Hiroshima is a primary tourism destination in Japan but faced the challenge of revitalization. Fieldwork investigation methods, including semi‐structured interviews, were applied. The results suggest that local people hold favorable attitudes toward tourism development. They conduct an alternative approach to rejuvenating Hiroshima by identifying the essence of the place – a cheerful and peaceful city – and incorporating it into tourism events. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Peril of the Inflation Exit Condition

Recent empirical evidence on monetary policy in Japan suggests that exits from the zero‐interest‐rate policy triggered by policy shocks can be expansionary. This paper provides theoretical examples of such expansionary policy‐induced exits. The examples suggest that the exit condition (the Bank of Japan’s stated commitment of not exiting from the zero‐rate regime unless the inflation rate rises above a certain threshold) may have made it difficult for the economy to escape from the liquidity trap.