Dynamics of CDS spread indexes of US financial sectors

This article examines the Credit Default Swap (CDS) spread index for three sectors, banking, financial services and insurance, in the short and long run. In the long run, the results show that the index of the insurance sector which sells the long term CDS contracts has the highest adjustment, while the banking sector is not error correcting. In the short run, although the insurance sector CDS spread index has general predictive power of all sector CDS spreads, the evidence suggests that the banking sector particularly leads the financial services and this in turn leads the insurance sector, implying a leading sector CDS pricing role for the banking spreads in the short run. The short run sensitivity Generalized Impulse Response Function (GIRF) and Generalized Variance Decomposition (GVDC) analyses also demonstrate that the sectors’ credit risk responds more to credit events in the banking sector than in the other two sectors other than their own over a 50 day horizon. However, the lowest cross sector CDS shock impacts in the short run come from the insurance sector. These results are useful for regulators wishing to embark on new regulations of these financial institutions such as Basel III.     

A model of Chinese central government

Why was the Chinese State able to promote economic growth during the reform era, yet has been unable to do so over the previous 30 years? In this article, we focus on a specific aspect of the question, which will contribute to the development of a more comprehensive explanation: the specific institutional arrangement that may induce the autocratic government to adopt growth‐enhancing policies. We consider a standard political‐agency model (Besley, 2006) where the incumbent leader may or may not be congruent, and where, to maintain power, both leader types need the support of the selectorate, an elite group having a say in selecting the leader, as well as associated access to special privileges. Primarily, we find that in autocracies, without electoral discipline to restrain the opportunistic behaviour of a leader, the size of the selectorate should be intermediate; if it is too small, the selectorate is captured by the leader and has no disciplinary role, but if too big, the leader's incentives are diluted.     

虚拟团队信任影响因素实证研究

虚拟团队的信任是人力资源管理与组织行为学领域的一个重要研究课题。相比较对传统面对面团队信任影响因素的大量研究,虚拟团队信任影响因素的研究尤其是实证方面的研究相对较少。本文在对虚拟团队产生背景、虚拟团队信任及其影响因素研究现状分析的基础上,整合个体、团队及组织三大层面,综合分析影响虚拟团队信任的个体特征（正直、能力、善意、信任倾向）、团队特征（领导有效性、目标明确性、任务依赖性、成员异质性）、组织特征（组织制度保障性、组织愿景）三层面十大因素,构建了虚拟团队信任影响因素的研究框架,进而提出相应的研究假设。通过选取实际企业中的虚拟团队为研究样本,验证这些因素对虚拟团队信任的影响。经实证研究发现,正直、能力、善意、信任倾向、领导有效性、目标明确性、任务依赖性、组织制度保障性、组织愿景均正向影响虚拟团队信任,而成员异质性则并非如先前所假设的那样成为虚拟团队信任的影响因素。     

长江上游地区产业结构演进与经济协调发展分析

文章对长江上游地区1991～2007年三次产业结构的演进特征进行分析,研究了其与经济发展的关系。结果表明,长江上游地区产业结构经历了从一、二、三型向二、一、三型转变,目前维持在二、三、一型的变化过程。产业结构整体水平落后于全国平均水平,但产业结构演进基本与工业化进程保持一致,且产业结构升级速度超过全国乃至东部地区,具有比东部地区更为强大的产业结构演变动力;产业结构转换与经济发展协调程度表现出地区差异,38%的城市产业结构转换超前于经济发展水平,60%的城市产业结构转换与经济发展水平相协调,2%的城市产业结构转换滞后于经济发展水平。     

论工业企业生态工程及其实施途径

生态工程这一概念是由美国著名生态学家HowardT.Odum首先提出来的。工业企业生态工程是把企业作为一个开放式人造系统,根据整体、协调、循环、再生等生态系统控制原理及方法去规划、设计和调控企业生产要素及其结构、工艺流程、技术工程和产品生态设计等,从而促进企业经济、生态、社会三大效益的协调发展。在工业企业中实施生态工程是可持续发展战略的微观举措,是增强工业企业生命力的有效手段。而实施生态工程必须树立现代生态观念,重视企业生态规划,发展生态工业园区,实施清洁生产模式,依法规范企业行为,从根本上增强企业生命力,实现企业经济效益、生态效益、社会效益多目标的协调。     

地方化经济与海岸带城市发展——基于DEA与GMM估计的实证检验

结合Malmquist指数与数据包络分析方法,利用1990-2007年城市统计数据,对我国50个海岸带城市的全要素生产率进行测量的结果表明,我国主要海岸带城市的全要素生产率并不平稳,海岸带城市快速的经济增长并不表现为技术效率的变动。在此基础上,利用测算得到的海岸带城市的全要素生产率TFP及其分解,作为劳动生产率的代理变量,采用广义矩估计方法,考察城市化经济、地方化经济与劳动生产率对海岸带城市产出的影响。研究表明,海岸带城市化经济对地区经济增长具有接近1.7%的带动,地方化经济对地区经济增长的带动则达到了30%,说明产业专业化和产业多样化所形成的经济组织地方集聚的经济效应非常巨大,而劳动生产率对海岸带城市产出的影响不显著。     

基于稳定分布条件的GARCH模型研究

本文应用GARCH模型对1995～2008年的沪深A股指数收益率序列进行分析,对正态分布、学生t分布、广义误差分布以及稳定分布下的GARCH模型进行对比研究,发现基于极大似然准则和AIC信息准则下,新信息服从稳定分布的GARCH模型优于其他模型。     

关于减少诉讼资源消耗的几点思考

诉讼资源的有限性与日益增加的诉讼需求之间的矛盾关系,是司法改革无法回避的问题。如何在利用有限诉讼资源的同时得到最大的诉讼效益是一个需要认真思考的问题。影响诉讼资源消耗的因素主要是诉讼周期、诉讼程序、追求司法公正的观念和司法人员专业素养与水平等。对此,有关部门应从立法上缩短审限,提高司法工作人员素质与专业水平,精简司法机关的人员编制,健全替代性纠纷解决机制,改革与完善简易程序。     

企业“钱荒”问题研究及对策——以内蒙古自治区中小企业为例

目前,“钱荒”是制约中小企业发展的瓶颈。造成这一问题的原因主要是：中小企业金融服务体系存在缺陷,自身规模小、风险大、信用度低,以及政府政策扶持力度比较薄弱等。因此,要改变中小企业的融资困境,应从金融服务体系、政府政策扶持和自身经营管理水平三方面入手。     

Impact Fees and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from 35 Chinese Cities

Local governments often charge developers impact fees to finance local public goods. This has been practiced in Chinese cities for more than two decades; however, no empirical studies have tested the effect of impact fees on real estate prices. Using a panel data set for 35 large- and medium-sized cities from 1998 to 2008, we find that impact fees lead to a significant increase in real estate prices. For a given city, an increase in impact fees by one yuan leads to an increase of about 5 yuan in the price of newly-built housing; a 1% increase in impact fees leads to an increase of 5 percentage points in the housing price index and 7 percentage points in the land price index.