Guidelines for Consumer Policy in Central and Eastern Europe

Journal of Consumer Policy -     

Analysis of compensatory financing schemes for export earnings fluctuations in developing countries

Several recent initiatives in the area of compensatory financing have pushed this issue into the forefront of discussion between developed and developing countries. This study performs simulations of various types of compensatory financing schemes assuming they had been in operation during the 1960s and early 1970s and draws some conclusions with respect to the relative costs and benefits of such schemes and with respect to their coutry and regional distribution. The results show that a compensatory financing scheme broadly defined is a flexible financial instrument which can be useful in helping developing countries with export instability problems.     

Stationarity test for the beta binomial model

The beta binomial model has been successfully applied to describe brand switching, television viewing, and magazine readership behavior. However, long-term projections from this model tend to have systematic biases. These biases can be explained by violations of the stationarity assumption of the model. A statistical test for stationarity is presented. A transition matrix upon which the test is based provides a useful diagnostic tool for detecting shifts in preference structures versus equilibrium switching behavior.     

Spatial and supply/demand agglomeration economies: State- and industry-linkages in the U.S. food system

Cost-impacts of spatial and industrial spillovers on economicperformance are evaluated by incorporating activity level measures for nearby states and related industries into a cost function model. We focus on localization and urbanization economies for state level food processing industries, from activity levels of similar industries in neighboring states, agricultural input suppliers, and final product demand. We find significant cost-savings from proximity to other food manufacturing centers, and areas with high purchasing power. Cost savings from locating near an agricultural area are also evident, although it seems costly to be located within a rural agricultural state, implying thin market diseconomies. Marginal production costs instead appear higher in more urban, and lower in more rural, areas. These spillover patterns also have input composition implications; materials demand responses are the most closely tracked by the agglomeration cost effects, and capital and labor impacts vary.     

Selection institutions and war aims

We explore how the sizes of the winning coalition and selectorate influence the war aims of states. Leaders who answer to a small winning coalition are more likely to seek territorial gain as a way to increase state resources. Nonterritorial war aims produce a commitment problem in that after the war the defeated state may not comply with the victor's demands. States with large winning coalitions are more willing to continue the war to remove the enemy leader as a solution to this commitment problem. We test our hypotheses against the Militarized Interstate Dispute data set, and we find some support for our argument. Received: June 2004, Accepted: April 2005, Correspondence to: James D. Morrow     

Measuring the impact of R&;D on Productivity from a Econometric Time Series Perspective

In this paper we argue that the standard sequential reduction approach to modelling dynamic relationships may be sub-optimal when long lag lengths are required and especially when the intermediate lags may be less important. A flexible model search approach is adopted using the insights of Bayesian Model probabilities, and new information criteria based on forecasting performance. This approach is facilitated by exploiting Genetic Algorithms. Using data on U.K. and U.S. agriculture the bivariate time series relationship between R&D expenditure and productivity is analysed. Long lags are found in the relationship between R&D expenditures and productivity in the U.K. and in the U.S. which remain undiscovered when using the orthodox approach. This finding is of particular importance in the debate on the optimal level of public R&D funding.JEL Classification: C22, C51, Q16