Predicting total health care costs of medicaid recipients: An artificial neural systems approach

Although medical treatment costs have escalated beyond the reach of many Americans, a thorough total cost model is essential before implementing cost containment strategies. This study offers a prediction model of the total treatment cost for a Mississippi Medicaid patient. Artificial neural systems (ANS) are proposed as a methodology for the prediction of health care costs of postmenopausal women who are Medicaid recipients. The results of the neural networks along with traditional regression analysis are presented. Artificial neural systems overcome many of the problems associated with the estimation of this model, such as the identification of the appropriate functional form and dealing with both qualitative and quantitative aspects of these large claims databases. Neural networks are shown to provide superior forecasts. In addition preliminary results for the presentation of significance tests of individual causal variables using neural networks is presented.     

全球旅游研究格局的综合分析(2003-2012)

基于Mill & Morrison的旅游系统理论,文章构建了由6个主类和61个亚类组成的旅游研究系统分类框架(The tourism research system categorization framework),选.取31本国际旅游期刊在2003-2012年期间的10058篇文章,从而提取出13669个关键词(其出现频次为41624)并进行归类,运用演绎分析和统计方法对旅游研究主题进行大数据整理.文章识别出旅游学研究的跨学科特征和各个旅游研究主题的受关注程度:从主类来看,最受关注的是“目的地”领域,其次是“需求”和“营销”领域;从亚类来看,最受关注的是“市场细分”和“吸引物和节庆”领域,而“基础设施”、“交通(旅游目的地内部)”和“旅游客流”等领域受关注度最少.最后,本文试图寻求与旅游学学科树进行理论对话,重新检验了近10年国际旅游研究在国内分类框架的学科特征与演变趋势.     

The effect of prior experience on vacation behavior

This research applied consumer involvement theory to describe, interrelate, and explain the repeat visit phenomenon and empirically tested the effect of past experience on tourists’ vacation behaviors. The results indicated that prior experience influenced current trips in terms of activity participation and expenditure patterns. These changes in behavior invoke different demands and requirements unique to the repeat vacation market. Since the quality of experience is central in destination loyalty management, knowledge about changes in behavior associated with this accumulation can be instrumental for destinations seeking to provide creative, relevant, and meaningful experiences to their different market segments.     

Technology and financial services: Marketing in times of U-commerce

This article revisits and uses the so-called U-Commerce framework to challenge financial services marketing decision makers to consider reformulating marketing objectives in an age of ubiquitous technological networks. It outlines the 4 U’s of U-Commerce – ubiquity, universality, unison and uniqueness, and revisits the original framework used to conceptualize U-Commerce. Then it identifies and describes four broad marketing objectives that financial services marketers can strive for, including amplification, attenuation, contextualization and transcension. Four broad marketing strategies can be used to achieve these objectives, namely nexus marketing, sync marketing, immersion marketing and transcension marketing. Examples specific to financial services marketing are used to illustrate and discuss these strategies.     

“Life Expectancy in the Future: A Summary of a Discussion among Experts”, Robert B. Friedland,October 1998

Abstract

In this paper we present an econometric model of implied volatilities of S&;P500 index options. First, we model the dynamics the CBOE VIX index as a proxy for the general level of implied volatilities. We then describe a parametric model of the implied volatility surface for options with a term of up to two years. We show that almost all of the variation in the implied volatility surface can be explained by the VIX index and one or two other uncorrelated factors. Finally, we present a model of the dynamics of these factors.     

The Endowment Effect and Expected Utility

The endowment effect, which is well documented in the contingent valuation literature, alters people's preferences according to a reference point established in an elicitation question. In particular, the utility that people place on a bundle is both a positive function of the quantities of the goods comprising the bundle, and a negative function of any loss (real or hypothetical) that the elicitation question asks them to incur. Biases such as this have lead some to reject the contingent valuation method as a means of quantifying costs and benefits in favour of other methods of preference elicitation such as standard gambles. But, most preference elicitation methods used by economists require people to express their preferences for one good in terms of their willingness to forego some of another good. Consequently, it is reasonable to expect that, and prudent to check whether, an endowment effect is also evident in other methods of preference elicitation such as von Neumann-Morgenstern's standard gambles. Internal inconsistencies in the standard gamble method from the experimental economics literature and from a study into the value of non-fatal road injuries are shown to be evidence that an endowment effect is also at work in standard gambles.     

Seeing sustainability in business operations: US and British food retailer experiments with accountability

This article compares how food retail industries in Britain and the United States are facing sustainability challenges. The British and US industries are in different stages of maturity in identifying and responding to sustainability. Some UK retailers have begun developing broad‐based accountability systems that may aid them to see sustainability in their business operations. By examining what retailers are doing, how accountability systems can inform retailers and the business case for accountability, this article argues that retailers can gain significant business advantages with strategies to improve accountability. Compared with their American counterparts, British retailers may be better placed to deal with sustainability issues in future. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Consumer Behaviour in a Country in Transition with a Strongly Contracting Economy: The Case of Food Consumption in Bulgaria

This paper presents estimates of demand elasticities in Bulgaria using the Almost Ideal Demand system while using interval priors for the parameters. Expenditure elasticities are found to be considerably higher than unity for food items. These results are interpreted as being due to a substantial divergence between consumption and expenditure on food items. It is concluded that under conditions of falling incomes, policies which focus exclusively on food provision may not be appropriate. In the event of a return to income growth, an initial increase in demand for selected food items could outstrip the potential to increase domestic supply, and lead to an increase in imports, or decrease in exports, of a number of agricultural products.