A welfare analysis of Canadian chartered bank mergers

An econometric model of Canada's five largest banks is estimated using time series data from 1976 to 1996. The principal findings are that chartered bank technology is characterized by increasing returns to scale. Scale efficiency is sufficiently large to offset the consequences of reduced competition that might have arisen from a merger between Bank of Montreal and Royal Bank of Canada, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and Toronto Dominion Bank, or both. The estimated model predicts that all the mergers proposed in 1998 would have led to slightly lower prices and, consequently, to an increase in consumer welfare.
Une analyse de bien–être des fusions des banques à charte canadiennes . L'auteur calibre un modèle économétrique des cinq plus grandes banques à charte au Canada à l'aide de séries chronologiques de 1976 à 1996. Les principaux résultats montrent que la technologie des banques à charte a des rendements croissants à l'échelle. Ces rendements à l'échelle sont suffisamment importants pour compenser les effets de réduction de la concurrence qui auraient pu se produire en conséquence de la fusion de la Banque de Montréal et la Banque Royale, de la Banque Impériale de Commerce et de la Banque Toronto–Dominion, ou des deux. Le modèle suggère que toutes les fusions proposées en 1998 auraient entraîné des prix légèrement plus bas, et en conséquence un accroissement dans le niveau de bien–être des consommateurs.     

A simulation of moral behavior within marketing exchange relationships

This investigation uses a simulated business-to-business sales context to examine five individual moral philosophies (true altruists, true egoists, realistic altruists, tit-for-tats, and realistic egoists). The simulation is based on the Iterative Prisoner’s Dilemma and its associated payoffs, employing computer-generated sales agents that represent different companies and industries. The agents were selected randomly across 1,000 rounds, and interacted with exchange partners according to the moral philosophies noted. In some cases, various corporate cultures were added to determine their impact on the evolution and final mix of philosophical orientations of agents within firms. Simulation results indicate the importance of ethical behavior on the long-term financial success of companies as well as the larger industries in which they participate.     

The Liverpool macroeconomic model of the United Kingdom

The paper describes the Liverpool Model, a rational expectations model of the UK economy used for forecasting since March 1980. The model is of the ‘new classical’ type, in that all markets clear; in the labour market, there is a union sector with one-year nominal wage contracts but the non-union sector clears excess demands. Equilibrium (or ‘natural rate’) values of output, employment, real wages, etc are endogenously determined. In- and out-of-sample errors, a full set of simulations, and a complete listing are included. The interim experience of the model as a test bed for rational expectations methods is ‘far from discouraging’.     

Evaluating alternative price expectation models for multiproduct supply analysis

Neoclassical economic theory provides an important conceptual framework for the analysis of agricultural production. Theory provides little guidance, however, in the actual specification of empirical models. This paper applies an integrated approach for choosing between price expectation mechanisms in a multiple-equation model when the alternatives are non-nested. Nine alternative specifications of market price and policy information are developed. Price forecasting accuracy, non-nested tests of hypotheses, and out-of-sample predictive accuracy are examined for agricultural production in Iowa. The results call into question the reliability of using forecasting accuracy as the sole guide to selecting a price expectation proxy.     

Can Human Capital Theory Explain why Nurses are so Poorly Paid?

This paper uses Australian Census data to examine the earnings of female professionals. Comparisons are made between Registered Nurses (RNs), Teachers, Social Professionals, Health Professionals and Business Professionals. Wage decompositions show that RNs earn significantly less than other female Professionals and that the observed differentials can not be explained by differences in human capital endowments. The evidence presented is strongly suggestive of monopsonist or oligopsonist power in the setting of nurse wages – with a manifestation being persistent labour market disequilibrium. Changing the relative reward structure for nurses may help address the on-going nursing 'shortage' in Australia, although further research in this area is called for.     

Women's producer groups in rural KwaZulu: Limits and possibilities

Non‐agricultural ‘self‐help’ initiatives tend to be synonomous with handicraft activities. This paper addresses the potential of such initiatives in terms of income generation and developmental impact.

An outline of the context within which these initiatives may be understood is followed by an analysis of how rural producers respond to their conditions in an organizational sense. The paper's conclusions are derived from a discussion of the relative advantages and disadvantages of various organizational forms which includes the perceptions of the producers.     

Training and Labour Market Flexibility: Is There a Trade-off?

This paper explores the nexus between work-related training and labour market 'flexibility' (which we proxy by contract type, part-time employment and lack of union coverage), using the first five waves of the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) conducted over the period 1991–5. Our results show that workers on short-term employment contracts, who are working part-time or are not covered by a union collective agreement, are significantly less likely to be involved in any work-related training to improve or increase their skills. These findings suggest that there is a trade-off between expanding the more marginal forms of employment and expanding the proportion of the work-force getting work-related training.     

Machine‐independent audit trail analysis—a tool for continuous audit assurance

This paper reports the results of a research project which examines the feasibility of developing a machine‐independent audit trail analyser (MIATA). MIATA is a knowledge‐based system which performs intelligent analysis of operating system audit trails. Such a system is proposed as a decision support tool for auditors when assessing the risk of unauthorized user activity in multi‐user computer systems. It is also relevant to the provision of a continuous assurance service to clients by internal and external auditors. Monitoring user activity in system audit trails manually is impractical because of the vast quantity of events recorded in those audit trails. However, if done manually, an expert security auditor would be needed to look for two main types of events—user activity rejected by the system's security settings (failed actions) and users behaving abnormally (e.g. unexpected changes in activity such as the purchasing clerk attempting to modify payroll data). A knowledge‐based system is suited to applications that require expertise to perform well‐de?ned, yet complex, monitoring activities (e.g. controlling nuclear reactors and detecting intrusions in computer systems). To permit machine‐independent intelligent audit trail analysis, an anomaly‐detection approach is adopted. Time series forecasting methods are used to develop and maintain the user pro?le database (knowledge base) that allows identi?cation of users with rejected behaviour as well as abnormal behaviour. The knowledge‐based system maintains this knowledge base and permits reporting on the potential intruder threats (summarized in Table I). The intelligence of the MIATA system is its ability to handle audit trails from any system, its knowledge base capturing rejected user activity and detecting anomalous activity, and its reporting capabilities focusing on known methods of intrusion. MIATA also updates user pro?les and forecasts of behaviour on a daily basis. As such, it also ‘learns’ from changes in user behaviour. The feasibility of generating machine‐independent audit trail records, and the applicability of the anomaly‐detection approach and time series forecasting methods, are demonstrated using three case studies. These results support the proposal that developing a machine‐independent audit trail analyser is feasible. Such a system will be an invaluable aid to an auditor in detecting potential computer intrusions and monitoring user activity. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.