Growth, Technological Change, and ICT Diffusion: Recent Evidence from OECD Countries

In this paper we present an overview of GDP and productivitygrowth patterns in OECD countries over the past decade, on thebasis of harmonized data. Our evidence suggests that fast-growingcountries generally shared three characteristics: improvementsin labour utilization; a generalized enhancement in human capital;and rapid shifts in the composition of physical capital towardsinformation and communication technology (ICT) equipment. Particularly,we show that technological change embodied in new ICT capitalgoods has been a primary source of output and productivity growthin ICT-using sectors. The international comparison allows relatinggrowth patterns to institutional and policy indicators, therebyoffering some preliminary insights into the potential sourcesof growth disparities. Cross-country evidence yields some tentativesupport to the idea that institutional factors affecting competitionin the product market are likely to affect productivity patterns,especially in a period of rapid diffusion of a general-purposetechnology (such as ICT).     

Daily short interest,idiosyncratic risk,and stock returns

This paper examines the relation between short selling and returns and the impact of arbitrage costs on short sellers’ behavior. Using daily UK short selling data, we find that stocks with low short interest levels experience significant positive returns on both an equal- and value-weighted basis. Economic theory predicts that short sellers avoid establishing positions in stocks with high idiosyncratic risk. Our results indicate a negative relation between short interest and returns among high idiosyncratic risk stocks and that short selling activity is mostly concentrated in low idiosyncratic risk stocks where it is less costly to arbitrage fundamental risk.     

How useful are no-arbitrage restrictions for forecasting the term structure of interest rates?

We develop a general framework for analyzing the usefulness of imposing parameter restrictions on a forecasting model. We propose a measure of the usefulness of the restrictions that depends on the forecaster’s loss function and that could be time varying. We show how to conduct inference about this measure. The application of our methodology to analyzing the usefulness of no-arbitrage restrictions for forecasting the term structure of interest rates reveals that: (1) the restrictions have become less useful over time; (2) when using a statistical measure of accuracy, the restrictions are a useful way to reduce parameter estimation uncertainty, but are dominated by restrictions that do the same without using any theory; (3) when using an economic measure of accuracy, the no-arbitrage restrictions are no longer dominated by atheoretical restrictions, but for this to be true it is important that the restrictions incorporate a time-varying risk premium.     

The Effect Of Statistical Discrimination On Black–White Wage Inequality: Estimating A Model With Multiple Equilibria*

This article presents the structural estimation of the parameters of a statistical discrimination model. Although the model is capable of displaying multiple equilibria, an estimation strategy that identifies both the model parameters and the equilibrium selected by the economic agents is developed and empirically implemented. A comparison between the selected equilibria and the other potential equilibria reveals that the decline in wage inequality experienced in the U.S. economy cannot be attributed to changes in the equilibrium selection. Nonetheless, a counterfactual experiment shows that in a color‐blind society blacks' wage would have been on average more than 20% higher.     

Fictitious Play, Shapley Polygons, and the Replicator Equation

For many normal form games, the limiting behavior of fictitious play and the time-averaged replicator dynamics coincide. In particular, we show this for three examples, where this limit is not a Nash equilibrium, but a Shapley polygon. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, C73.     

SERVCON: development and validation of a multidimensional service convenience scale

As customers have demanded greater convenience in service exchanges, researchers have responded by incorporating the convenience construct into their conceptual models and empirical studies, but a comprehensive, formally validated measure of convenience remains lacking. This study conceptualizes service convenience as a second-order, five-dimensional construct that reflects consumers’ perceived time and effort in purchasing or using a service. Service convenience dimensions are salient at different stages of the purchase decision process. Given this conceptualization, the study presents the development and validation of the SERVCON scale, a comprehensive instrument for measuring service convenience. The five dimensions are independent within a nomological network that illustrates distinct antecedent and consequent effects, and the results reinforce the multidimensional representation, offering insight into the distinctive relationships between each service convenience dimension and its antecedents, such as competitive intensity, and consequences, such as repurchase behavior. The findings help researchers and managers understand a fully conceptualized convenience construct and facilitate the measurement of convenience in future empirical studies.     

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Discretionary accounting choices and the predictive ability of accruals with respect to future cash flows

Using a sample of restatement firms and a meet-or-beat model to classify firms as making discretionary accounting choices for opportunistic meet-or-beat (OP-MB) reasons, we show that originally reported earnings and accrual components are less predictive of future cash flows relative to the restated numbers. We find the opposite is true for firms classified as making discretionary accounting choices for non-OP-MB reasons. We consider a number of competing explanations for these latter results. Our findings are most consistent with the informational hypothesis, weakly consistent with conservative-motivated efficient contracting hypotheses, but inconsistent with opportunistic contracting and misapplication/errors of GAAP explanations.