Do dynamics and heterogeneity in panel data models matter?

This article investigates empirically the determinants of central banks’ reserve holdings for a large panel data set of developing and transition countries covering the period from 1975 to 2003. It estimates both a static and a dynamic relationship and applies estimators for homogeneous and heterogeneous panel data. Thereby, it examines the extent to which conclusions of panel data studies on the determinants of international reserve holdings are robust to the inclusion of dynamics as well as to the consideration of heterogeneity across countries. The results show that the neglect of dynamics and heterogeneity in country behaviour may lead to misleading inferences. Independently of the chosen estimation method, the findings suggest that trade openness and external debt are robust determinants of the level of reserves. Central banks take precautionary measures against the downside of the increasing international economic integration.     

中、德循环经济发展的比较研究

本文通过对比中、德发展循环经济的背景、模式和基础等条件差异,总结德国循环经济的特点。中国发展循环经济应借鉴德国经验,立足国情,走清洁生产与综合治理相结合、强制性实施与义务性实施相结合、原始创新与引进吸收相结合、绿色税收与绿色行政管理相结合的道路。     

Strategic Information Acquisition in Capital Markets*

A simple model of an asset market is presented, where agents are asymmetrically informed and hence information is transmitted through the price system. Prior to the trading period, a group of traders is given the opportunity to decide in a collusive arrangement whether they want to undertake a (costless) analysis which yields information about the future dividends of a risky asset. It will be shown that the fully rational and risk-averse insiders can do better without the information, if the dividend volatility of the risky asset is sufficiently low.
JEL Classification Numbers: D82, G14.     

Assessing the contribution of public capital to private production: Evidence from the German manufacturing sector

Using time-series cross-section data from the manufacturing sector of the 11 West German 'Bundesländer' (Federal States) from 1970 to 1996, I examine the impact of public capital on private production. My econometric analysis explicitly takes into account four of the most frequent specification issues in the context of time-series crosssection data analysis: serial correlation, groupwise heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional correlation and non-stationarity of data. For all approaches and tested specifications, I find that public capital is a significant input for production in the manufacturing sector. Moreover, I find that differences in public capital endowment can explain long-term differences in productivity across the Bundesländer. One tentative conclusion that can be drawn from this finding is that differences in public capital endowment might also explain a part of the still-existing productivity gap between manufacturing in East and West Germany. However, I emphasise that the existence of positive effects of public capital on private production is a necessary, but not a sufficient condition for concluding that public investments should be boosted in the future.     

关于责任核算的进一步研究

在前文"关于责任核算的辨析"(价值工程,2011.1)基础上,运用比较分析法,着重探索责任会计中责任成本的核算,最后以确认、计量、记录和报告等会计循环为依据,对一个实例进行了具体的计算和记录。文章的创新在于对责任中心的经济责任,只有通过计算并剔除不可控费用,将可控部分作为责任成本进行分解、计算和考核,才能落实分清责任,体现可控性原则。     

以阳光财务遏制贪腐丑行

面对信息不对称带来的种种困扰,信息虚假造成的各种恶果,信息屏蔽引发的官员贪腐,笔者越发认为实现信息对称对重塑公司治理结构,实现社会公平正义,遏制官员贪腐贿赂具有重要的实现意义。论文以官员贪腐为研究起点,分析成因,谋划措施,采用比较研究法,明确提出让财政晒晒太阳,实行阳光财务,是治理贪腐和贿赂的强力措施。     

Combining forecasts: An application to elections

We summarize the literature on the effectiveness of combining forecasts by assessing the conditions under which combining is most valuable. Using data on the six US presidential elections from 1992 to 2012, we report the reductions in error obtained by averaging forecasts within and across four election forecasting methods: poll projections, expert judgment, quantitative models, and the Iowa Electronic Markets. Across the six elections, the resulting combined forecasts were more accurate than any individual component method, on average. The gains in accuracy from combining increased with the numbers of forecasts used, especially when these forecasts were based on different methods and different data, and in situations involving high levels of uncertainty. Such combining yielded error reductions of between 16% and 59%, compared to the average errors of the individual forecasts. This improvement is substantially greater than the 12% reduction in error that had been reported previously for combining forecasts.     

对非公经济业主征交个税的探索

论文运用综评论三段式研究法,对非公经济公司所得税和个人所得税征交中存在问题、形成原因和治理对策进行了创新性研究,提出了倒逼思路、倒算方法和税转股等创新见解,以期影响立法机构修订税法。     

Accounting als Teil der Management Forschung

PRAXIS | Magazin

Accounting als Teil der Management Forschung Konferenz-Review