Assessing the contribution of flagship projects to city image change: a quasi‐experimental technique

The aim of this paper is to identify a simple technique that can be used to indicate whether flagship urban projects contribute to city image change. The quasi‐experiment outlined is grounded in established marketing efficacy measures and involves establishing the relationship between awareness levels of projects and image change. After an explanation of the proposed technique, it is applied to projects in Birmingham, Manchester and Sheffield to demonstrate its potential value. Despite raising some concerns, the paper concludes that the technique provides a useful indicator of the effects of flagship projects, particularly when longitudinal research is not possible. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade

The simple gravity equation explains a great deal about the data on bilateral trade flows and is consistent with several theoretical models of trade. We argue that alternative theories nevertheless predict subtle differences in key parameter values, depending on whether goods are homogeneous or differentiated and whether or not there are barriers to entry. Our empirical work for differentiated goods delivers results consistent with the theoretical predictions of the monopolistic-competition model, or a reciprocal-dumping model with free entry. Homogeneous goods are described by a model with national (Armington) product differentiation or by a reciprocal-dumping model with barriers to entry. JEL Classification: F10, F12
Equation de gravité et différenciation entre diverses théories du commerce international. La simple équation de gravité fournit une bonne part d'explication des flux de commerce bilatéraux et donne des résultats compatibles avec plusieurs modèles de commerce international. Les auteurs suggèrent que les diverses théories prédisent néanmoins des différences subtiles dans les valeurs de paramètres clés, selon que les biens sont homogènes ou différenciés, et qu'il y a barrières ou non à l'entrée. Le travail empirique des auteurs livre des résultats compatibles avec les prévisions théoriques du modèle de concurrence monopolistique ou du modèle de dumping réciproque avec entrée libre. On décrit les flux de biens homogènes à l'aide d'un modèle de différenciation nationale de produit à la Armington ou par un modèle de dumping réciproque avec barrières à l'entrée.     

Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation

Technical analysis, also known as 'charting,' has been a part of financial practice for many decades, but this discipline has not received the same level of academic scrutiny and acceptance as more traditional approaches such as fundamental analysis. One of the main obstacles is the highly subjective nature of technical analysis—the presence of geometric shapes in historical price charts is often in the eyes of the beholder. In this paper, we propose a systematic and automatic approach to technical pattern recognition using nonparametric kernel regression, and we apply this method to a large number of U.S. stocks from 1962 to 1996 to evaluate the effectiveness of technical analysis. By comparing the unconditional empirical distribution of daily stock returns to the conditional distribution—conditioned on specific technical indicators such as head-and-shoulders or double bottoms—we find that over the 31-year sample period, several technical indicators do provide incremental information and may have some practical value.     

The unpopularity of the hearth tax and the social geography of London in 1666

This article presents a new evaluation of the Restoration hearth tax and the social geography of London, first, by comparing the 1666 London hearth tax return with unpublished collectors’ accounts; second, by analysing the huge amount of extraneous data in these records on the social conditions in London; and third, by considering how different forms of tax avoidance and tax evasion operated on the streets of London. The article discusses wealth distribution by location and social status, and shows how privileged groups used diplomatic, ecclesiastical, and military rank to avoid the hearth tax, while ordinary householders turned to doorstep opposition, especially in the outer and poorer suburbs, in expressing their hostility towards the heath tax. The article demonstrates that in Metropolitan London the assessment and collection of the hearth tax depended not only upon the enforcement of the parliamentary legislation, but also upon negotiation and give‐and‐take between tax collectors and tax payers, sometimes in consultation with the Crown. As a result the hearth tax failed to fill the king's purse, was unpopular in the capital and in the country, and created onerous work for both auditors and hearth tax collectors, which contributed to the short life of the hearth tax (1662–89).     

Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) in Construction Schedule Risk Assessment

Construction project scheduling is one of the most critical factors for project success measurement.Not only for the project planning but for construction process management,the scheduling is the basic tool for communication between the owner and the project manager.By developing the schedule before the project starts,the owner knows in advance that the expected timeline of the project.By preparing construction process scheduling,the owner and general contractor can better manage the subcontractors,sub-trades progress,materials storage and deliveries,labors schedule and equipment set up which will eventually save time,money and hassle.Basically,Critical Path Method(CPM) is commonly used in the construction industry.CPM is a deterministic method that assumes that through the network,there is at least one path that determines the project duration and that the path is the critical path.CPM does not consider the uncertainty in the activities;rather it assumes that each activity can be finished in the given situation.Program Evaluation and Review Technique(PERT) is a stochastic technique which is based on the assumption that the duration of a single activity can be described by a probability density function.PERT takes into account the uncertainty during the construction process and has been created out of the need to plan,schedule and control complex projects with many uncertainties.The PERT approach is stated in some books and papers,but there is no deep investigation on the application in the schedule risk assessment.This paper investigates the PERT work process and takes a valuable try on the construction schedule risk assessment by using case studies.The utilization in the estimate the construction liquidated damage with the uncertainties is performed,which also can be used in the insurance company to calculate the insurance premium.     

Did Leaving the Gold Standard Tame the Business Cycle? Evidence from NBER Reference Dates and Real GNP

Cover and Pecorino (2005) claim that the March 1933 departure from the gold standard is the most probable break point ushering in an era of longer U.S. expansions, both absolutely and relative to subsequent recessions. Their analysis is based on cycle durations as defined by National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) reference dates. However, much of macroeconomic analysis is based on (i) growth cycles (i.e., periods when the economy's production is above or below trend) rather than absolute increases or decreases in economic activity; and (ii) aggregate time series' volatility as the prime indicator of macroeconomic stability. In light of this, we reevaluate the March 1933 break point. First, using HP‐filtered quarterly gross national product (GNP), our analysis of growth cycle durations still implies a break point near 1933. Second, we test for structural breaks in the volatility of GNP growth rates and deviations from trends. These tests suggest a structural break considerably later than 1933, perhaps as late as the 1950s.