A Comparison of PIM Estimates with Direct Stock Information for Dwellings

One of the major sources of uncertainty in capital stock estimates stems from the use of the perpetual inventory method (PIM) in all the cases where direct stock information is not available. In the Danish capital stock estimates, it has been possible to dispense with the PIM as far as buildings are concerned. Instead, an administrative register of buildings is used together with a property register and the business register to produce an exhaustive enumeration of practically all buildings in the economy broken down by industry and sector. For the most important type of buildings, namely dwellings, the paper compares direct stock estimates derived by multiplying physical quantities (square meters) by the replacement prices per square meter with those that would result from applying the PIM to historical investment series. Dwellings are by far the most important non-financial assets in most developed economies.     

Information technologies, embodiment and growth

This paper studies the conditions under which an IT revolution may occur and have permanent effects on long-term growth. To this end, we construct a multi-sectoral growth model with endogenous embodied technical progress. The R&D sector expands the range of softwares. The capital sector produces efficient capital combining hardware with available softwares. Technological progress is therefore embodied: New softwares can only be run on the most recent generations of hardware. The new softwares are copyrighted during a fixed period of time. First, we analytically characterize the balanced growth paths of the model. Then we focus on the dynamic response of the economy to technological shocks. Substitution effects favorable to the IT sectors are shown to arise when positive supply shocks affect the production of efficient capital and/or the creation of new softwares. Positive shocks specific to the capital sector are unable to produce effects on long-term growth, in contrast to the shocks specific to the R&D sector.     

Determinants of Teenage Birth Rates as an Unpooled Sample

ABSTRACT Illinois teenage birth rates are estimated both as a pooled sample and also as an unpooled sample (under eighteen years old and eighteen to nineteen years old). The younger teens'are statistically significantly affected by the number of two-parent families in the county. The older teens'birth rates have statistically significant coefficients for three additional predictors–county education and income levels and the percent of children living in poverty. Variables that do not have a statistically significant relationship with either group's birth rates are population density and the unemployment rate. The proportion of white population was a statistically significant determinant for the younger teens'birth rate.     

The zip (postal) code difference: methods to improve identification of rural subgroups

Over the past decade national policymakers have grappled with the increasingly difficult issue of implementing programs which sustain the viability of the rural health care system. The set of problems that are of major concern to these decisionmakers include: (1) the shifts in the utilization patterns away from the rural health care delivery system; (2) the impact of modification in the health care reimbursement system which disproportionately favors urban health systems; and, (3) the continuing difficulty in affecting the disproportionate supply of health providers in urban areas compared to rural settings. The complex nature of health services research demands a multidisciplinary approach especially on sociocultural problems such as rural health delivery. Effective analysis in health care crosses many disciplinary boundaries such as medicine, nutrition, economics, sociology, and public health among others disciplines. A major concern to many of these rural health research analysts is the ad hoc treatment of the rural populace in federal and state health policy decisionmaking. The key to understanding the variance in treatment of rural health can be appreciated by reviewing the accuracy of rural definitions. In the present study, a refined rural definition is proposed which will assist research analysts in providing greater information on the distribution of rural health care services. A preliminary analysis of the proposed definitions indicates that a more precise measurement of rural provides greater accuracy in determining the medical needs of rural areas. Adaptation of the concept will benefit the decisionmaking process through improvements in the methodological approach to rural health research. State legislators, regional and state planning agencies, federal funding agencies, foundations, and other programs involved in support of rural life program will be better able to assess the impact of programs through use of the new definition. Finally, a refined typology for rural will also effect other research endeavors and appears to be generalizable to research on other pertinent rural delivery issues such as transportation, education, and regional planning.     

Building for the future: housing-related sectors and the welsh economy

Since the establishment of the Welsh Assembly Government there has been more emphasis on indigenous enterprises in relation to economic development policy. However, the housing-related sector has received little attention. This paper¹ presents the results of research that has investigated this sector and its significance to the local economy. Whilst acknowledging the considerable data-related difficulties in this exercise, analysis of housing and housing-related functions (including construction, finance, legal services, management of housing stock) showed that the sector accounted for around 4.5% of Welsh employment, and had considerable potential for assisting in the future development of the regional economy.     

Income growth in the 21st century: Forecasts with an overlapping generations model

We forecast income growth over the period 2000–2050 in the US, Canada, and France. To ground the forecasts on relationships that are as robust as possible to changes in the environment, we use a quantitative theoretical approach which involves calibrating and simulating a general equilibrium model. Compared to existing studies, we allow for life uncertainty and migrations, use generational accounting studies to link taxes and public expenditures to demographic changes, and take into account the interaction between education and work experience. Forecasts show that growth will be weaker over the period 2010–2040. The gap between the US and the two other countries is increasing over time. France will catch-up and overtake Canada in 2020. Investigating alternative policy scenarios, we show that increasing the effective retirement age to 63 would be most profitable for France, reducing the gap between it and the US by one third. A decrease in social security benefits would slightly stimulate growth but would have no real impact on the gap between the countries.     

构建全国性市场体系的承诺

SEC(美国证券交易委员会)正在考虑关于市场架构的问题,我很高兴能够在这里与大家分享自己对这些重要问题的看法.如往常一样,我的发言仅仅代表个人观点,并不必然反映SEC或我的其他同事的意见.     

Ranking sectors using fuzzy output multipliers

Using input–output analysis to model the effects of changes in industry final demands is fraught with problems, many of which relate to the fundamental limitations of the concomitant linear framework. A further issue concerns the accuracy of the results, a consequence of the uncertainty surrounding the values of multipliers. Such uncertainty can create problems where the values of output multipliers are used to inform resource directions. This paper utilizes (and develops) a fuzzy input–output model and investigates the ranking of industries based on fuzzy output multipliers. The non-triviality of the fuzzy model is exposited in a general problem, where imprecision is defined by a proportional level of imprecision (fuzziness) in the technical coefficients. Through a nascent method for ranking fuzzy numbers, comparisons are made between the fuzzy and more traditional (non-fuzzy) analysis.     

Reshaping internal labour markets in the National Health Service: new prospects for pay and training for lower skilled service workers?

This article considers how two new strategies for improving pay and skills development have been used in the UK National Health Service (NHS) to develop labour capacity and capability by stimulating the development of relatively coherent internal labour markets for workers at the lower end of the occupational hierarchy. Drawing on data from 13 NHS trusts, we scrutinise the implications of the new national pay system, Agenda for Change, for healthcare assistants and cleaners and find substantial one‐off improvements in pay for these groups as a direct result of the new national pay framework. However, the detailed case‐study data reveal there is considerable uncertainty regarding the extent, depth and durability of pay improvements. In particular, opportunities for pay progression in reward for acquisition of new skills and qualifications were more variable as a result of the stronger role of management choice and strategy at the organisational level in implementing the new national strategy for skills development, the Skills Escalator. Moreover, management strategy shaped the demand for, and distribution of, intermediate‐level skills (through new job design, for example), which was critical to the effectiveness of trusts in pulling lower grade employees up through an internal career trajectory.     

Clothes without an Emperor: Analysis of the preferential tariffs in ASEAN

This paper examines the current state of intra-ASEAN trade under the preferential regime of the AFTA. It partly addresses some data problems and employs a gravity model to arrive at alternative ways of gauging the importance of preferences in the absence of data on the actual utilisation of AFTA preferential tariffs. Our results show that although the range of products where AFTA might have an influence is limited, preferences seem to matter when the differential margin between the MFN and preferential tariff rates reaches a critical amount, allowing regional exporters to cover the costs of requesting preferences. However, at very high differential margins, the significance of AFTA preferences seems to wane. This indicates either the presence of non-tariff measures which prevent traders from exploiting the huge tariff discounts offered by the AFTA, and or, the propensity of ASEAN to extend high preferences on products where little or no intra-ASEAN trade takes place.