Forecasting banking crises with dynamic panel probit models

Banking crises are rare events, but when they occur, their consequences are often dramatic. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the toolkit of early warning models that is available to policy makers by exploring the dynamics and exuberances embedded in a panel dataset that covers 22 European countries over four decades (from 1970Q1 to 2012Q4). The in- and out-of-sample forecast performances of several (dynamic) probit models are evaluated, with the objective of developing common vulnerability indicators with early warning properties. The results obtained show that adding dynamic components and exuberance indicators to the models improves the performances of early warning models significantly.     

The mediating effect of satisfaction on consumers' switching intention

Most previous research on consumers' switching intention has focused on individual variables that have immediate effects on consumers' intentions or behaviors, rather than analyzing it as a complex phenomenon. This article provides evidence that some service provider behaviors precipitate relationship dissolution, whereas other behaviors create a predisposition to switch. This different effect is observed through the mediating effect of customer satisfaction. While poor service quality and low firm commitment undermine consumer satisfaction and have only an indirect effect on switching intentions, price unfairness and anger incidents have a strong effect on switching, both directly and indirectly through satisfaction. Implications are discussed for customer relationship management. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Portugal: a Bayesian SVAR analysis

With a new quarterly dataset we estimate a Bayesian Structural Autoregression model and a Fully Simultaneous System approach to analyze the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. Results show that positive government spending shocks, in general, have a negative effect on real GDP; lead to “crowding-out” effects of private consumption and investment; have a persistent and positive effect on the price level and a mixed impact on the average financing cost of government debt. Explicitly considering the government debt dynamics in the model is also important. A VAR counter-factual exercise confirms that unexpected positive spending shocks create relevant “crowding-out” effects.     

The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy

We investigate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy using a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression (B-SVAR) approach. We identify fiscal policy shocks via a partial identification scheme, but also: (i) include the feedback from government debt; (ii) look at the impact on the composition of output; (iii) assess the effects on asset markets; (iv) use quarterly data; and (v) analyse empirical evidence from the US, the UK, Germany and Italy. The results show that government spending shocks, in general, have a small effect on Gross Domestic Product (GDP); lead to important ‘crowding-out’ effects; have a varied impact on housing prices and generate a quick fall in stock prices. Government revenue shocks generate a mixed effect on housing prices and a small and positive effect on stock prices. The empirical evidence also suggests that it is important to explicitly consider the government debt dynamics in the model.     

Short- and long-run behaviour of long-term sovereign bond yields

We assess the short- and long-run behaviour of long-term sovereign bond yields in OECD countries using a dynamic panel approach to reflect financial and economic integration. Given the existence of cross-country dependence regarding sovereign yields and its determinants, we resort to simulation and bootstrap methods. Results based on the Common Correlated Effect estimator of Pesaran and on Panel Error Correction Models to sort out short- and long-run fiscal developments show that in addition to common movements in sovereign yields, investors also consider country differences arising from specific factors (inflation, budgetary and current account imbalances, real effective exchange rates, and liquidity).     

Current account balance cyclicality

We assess the cyclicality of current account balances for the period 2001Q1–2014Q4, focusing on Portugal and using Germany as a benchmark. We find that the cyclical component of the current account was positively explained by 3-month Euribor, but negatively by the financial crisis, systemic stress in Europe, employment and compensation of employees. Moreover, the noncyclical current account was positively affected by the period of the economic and financial adjustment programme and the terms of trade, but negatively influenced by financial integration.     

Fiscal Episodes and Market Power

We assess the effect of fiscal episodes, as determined via alternative approaches, on GDP and on markups in a panel of 14 OECD countries. Our results with narrative action-based data show counter-cyclicality since negative fiscal shocks increase markups. Additional empirical exercises reveal that spending-based consolidation programs have a more counter-cyclical effect on the behaviour of markups over the short and medium term than tax-based ones. Moreover, in times of economic contraction the degree of counter-cyclicality of negative (positive) government spending (tax) shocks is larger than during economic expansions.