Market domain and structure in regional manufacturing instability

A decomposition of regional sectoral manufacturing employment variances is used as a basis for allocating instability to the markets in which the instability originates, including national, regional and internal. The effects of such attributes of industry structure as market power and economies of scale upon manufacturing sector instability is also investigated. Using data for Arizona over the years 1965–1985, 43% of Arizona's manufacturing instability is attributable to instability in national markets. The hypothesis that Arizona's instability can be attributed to market power differentials is rejected, but the effect of scale economy differentials is supported.     

The New Accountability? Devolution and Expenditure Politics in Scotland

Devolution is seen to be a means for enhancing democratic control and accountability in the British political system (Scottish Office, 1997). Proponents of such change have presented it as offering the prospect of a more consensual, transparent and inclusive form of governance, in effect a 'new politics', with less executive dominance than at Westminster. This would be delivered in part by proportional representation, by strengthening the role of the legislature, and by adopting a more consultative approach to decision-making (Scottish Constitutional Convention, 1995). This article focuses on expenditure politics in the budget and audit processes of the Scottish Parliament.     

Sequential and multinomial logit: A nested model

A nested model is presented which has both the sequential and the multinomial logit model as special cases. This model provides a simple test to investigate the validity of these specifications. Some theoretical properties of the model are discussed. During the analysis a distribution function is derived, which, to the best of our knowledge, has not been used before. This distribution is shown to be a generalization of the typeI extreme-value distribution. Monte Carlo experiments and empirical applications of the model are presented.     

Relocation Opportunities and Mortgage Default

This paper presents a theoretical model of residential mortgage default when borrowers face beneficial as well as costly relocation opportunities. It amplifies and extends previous work by providing explicit conditions leading to default. The model also establishes when a borrower's relocation decision and default decision are dependent and when they are not.
A central result is that there is a range of book equity wherein the decision to default is not determined solely by the current level of equity or the borrower's ability to continue the mortgage payments. Rather, various costs and benefits, both tangible and intangible, enter into the decision. Specific conditions are identified that lead to relocation without default, default and relocation, and no default or relocation. The effects of changes in the variables upon default probability are presented.
Assuming that the borrower does not wish to retain ownership in the property, the model also predicts whether an individual borrower will choose prepayment or default when a relocation is made. The choice depends on the value of the relocation opportunity faced by the borrower, as well as financial variables such as house value, mortgage balance, and transaction costs. This finding suggests that existing empirical analyses of default may have omitted explanatory variables.     

Comparing forecasts from fixed and variable coefficient models: The case of money demand

In this paper we introduce a class of tentatively plausible, fixed-coefficient models of money demand and evaluate their forecast performance. When these models are reestimated allowing all coefficients to vary over time, the forecasting performance improves dramatically. Aside from offering insights about improved methods of analyzing time series data, the most promising direct use for point estimates derived from time-varying coefficients is as an aid in calibrating proposed models of the kind discussed here.     

Setting people up for success: How the Portman Ritz‐Carlton hotel gets the best from its people

In China, where many multinational companies face a constant shortage of talent and high employee turnover, the Portman Ritz‐Carlton Hotel has been able to attract, develop, and retain high‐quality talent to deliver excellent customer service and ensure profitable growth. Under the leadership of Mark DeCocinis since 1998, the Portman Ritz‐Carlton has not only been named as the “Best Employer in Asia” by Hewitt Associates three consecutive times, but has also rated the highest in employee satisfaction among all of the Ritz‐Carlton's 59 hotels worldwide for five consecutive years. How can DeCocinis and his leadership team achieve such remarkable results? In his interview with Arthur Yeung, Mark DeCocinis, general manager of the Port‐man Ritz‐Carlton and regional vice president, Asia‐Pacific, of the Ritz‐Carlton Hotel Company, shares his philosophy and practices on talent management in China and elsewhere. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The recession of 1990: An Austrian explanation

Conclusion Deficit spending and money-supply expansion do not eliminate recessions. Theycause recessions. This fact will never be understood unless economists and government policymakers stop trying to micro-manage the economy, and start studying what their actions are doing to the structure of production. Heavy inflation of the money supply followed by sharp cutbacks change the rules right in the middle of the game for millions of businesses in the economy. For the last 40 years, government expansionary policies have stimulated industries to create false and untenable investments. These policies are followed by government corrective actions that destroy those same projects—waste the billions of dollars invested in them, and throw millions out of work. Business cycles are not an essential feature of market capitalism. They are the result of government interference with the market. In the misdirection of labor and the distortion of the structure of production during past business cycles, it was fairly easy to point to the places where the excessive expansion had occurred because it was, on the whole, confined to the capital goods industries... In contrast, the present expansion of money, which has been brought about partly by means of bank credit expansion and partly through budget deficits, has been the result of a deliberate policy, and has gone through somewhat different channels... I do not doubt that in a sense we have today the same kind of phenomenon, but the over-expansion, the undue increase of labor employed in particular occupations, is not confined to a single, clearly defined block such as the capital-goods industries. It is now spread much more widely, and the distribution is much more difficult to describe. It is a field I would wish some statistically minded economist would investigate in order to show how the process operated in particular countries. Friedrich A. Hayek     

让小人物进入董事会

为什么公司真正的主人--股东--不能有提名董事会成员的权力呢?当董事会的管理能力与公司业绩受到广泛的质疑时,投资人有权提名新的董事候选人。