Finding Pareto Optimal Insurance Contracts

This paper deals with on-line computation—or step-wise learning—of Pareto optimal insurance contracts. Our approach tolerates that the loss distribution might be unknown, intractable, or not well specified. Thus we accommodate fairly inexperienced parties. Losses are here simulated or observed, one at a time, and they cause iterated revisions of the premium. The mechanical and global nature of probability calculus thereby yields to more tentative, myopic procedures, possibly closer to how humans operate or reason in face of risk. Sequential revisions may also reduce the expense of insurers' time and money in seeking sufficient statistics. Emphasized below is the remarkable simplicity and stability of the resulting adaptive procedures. Special attention goes to catastrophic risks, and to subsidized or competitive insurance.     

Another view on optimal design for estimating the point of extremum in quadratic regression

In this paper we illustrate how certain design problems can be simplified by reparametrization of the response function. This alternative viewpoint provides further insights than the more traditional approaches, like minimax, Bayesian or sequential techniques. It will also improve a practitioner’s understanding of more general situations and their “classical” treatment.     

Money growth volatility and the demand for money in Germany: Friedman’s volatility hypothesis revisited

Money Growth Volatility and the Demand for Money in Germany: Friedman’s Volatility Hypothesis Revisited. — Recently, the Bundesbank claimed that monetary targeting has become considerably more difficult by the increased volatility of short-term money growth. The present paper investigates the impact of German money growth volatility on income velocity and money demand in view of Friedman’s money growth volatility hypothesis. Granger-causality tests provide some evidence for a velocity/volatility linkage. However, the estimation of volatility-augmented money demand functions reveals that — in contrast to Friedman’s hypothesis — increased money growth volatility lowered the demand for money.     

Global economy gathering strength

Encouraged by a highly expansionary economic policy, the global economy is enjoying a rapid upturn. Utilisation of capacity is high in many sectors, particularly in the growth centres of the USA and East Asia, where China leads the field. With inflationary risks on the increase, most countries are now shifting the focus of economic policy. Fiscal policy in particular can be expected to provide little in the way of further stimulus. In addition, there has been a turnaround in interest rates in many countries. Yet how quickly can the monetary reins be tightened without jeopardising growth or endangering price stability?     

Fragmentation, Engel's Law, and Learning

This paper outlines the conditions under which trade is beneficial for a developing country's growth. A developing country suffers from two disadvantages: low income and a comparative disadvantage in the production of modern manufactured goods—goods which allow a high rate of human capital accumulation through learning by doing. Low income together with Engel's law imply that developing countries consume and produce very few modern goods in autarky and hence grow slowly. With international fragmentation of production, a developing country may find comparative advantage in the production of some stages of modern goods despite an absence of comparative advantage in the production of modern goods under “100% local content.” More resources can then be allocated to the modern goods sector leading to greater learning externalities and hence growth under free trade than in autarky.     

基于消费者运动的社会营销学研究综述

20世纪美国消费者运动风起云涌。推动了政府的立法活动和营销学研究。本文回顾美国消费者运动的进程，评述基于消费者运动的社会营销学研究，并对中国的消费者权益保护及其社会营销学研究提出建议。     

Analysing Materials and Energy Flows in an Industrial District using an Enterprise Input–Output Model

Recent approaches to sustainable development leave much room for policies at a local level. In fact, it is becoming evident that targets such as increasing resource productivity, preserving natural cycles, or extending the present level of welfare, are best pursued within the confines of a local area. In particular, environmental changes are best brought about by considering local systems of firms as cornerstones of cooperative strategies and using data on materials and energy use in physical terms. In this paper, an enterprise input–output model is developed for an industrial district, i.e. a local group of firms specialized in the production of a single final output. The model allows for a detailed quantitative analysis of materials and energy flows and the consequent generation of waste and pollution. As a planning tool, the model may be used to evaluate alternative scenarios, such as the possibility of re- using waste taking account of sustainability requirements. An empirical case study applies the model to an industrial district in Southern Italy producing leather sofas.