Getting the word out: Enforcement information dissemination and compliance behavior

The question for the tax authority is how individuals become aware of enforcement effort. To be an effective tool in reducing tax evasion taxpayers must be aware of the current audit and penalty regime. We use laboratory experiments to examine the compliance impact of types of information dissemination regarding audit frequency and results. The information includes “official” information disseminated by the tax authority, and “unofficial”, or informal, communications among taxpayers. Our results indicate that the effect of the type of post-audit information is conditional on whether the taxpayer is well informed of the audit rate prior to filing. We find that the tax authority would be served by pre-announcing audit rates credibly and by emphasizing the previous period audit frequency in annual reporting of enforcement effort.     

A comparative study of the probability of default for global financial firms

This article presents a modification of Merton’s (1976) ruin option pricing model to estimate the implied probability of default from stock and option market prices. To test the model, we analyze all global financial firms with traded options in the US and focus on the subprime mortgage crisis period. We compare the performance of the implied probability of default from our model to the expected default frequencies based on the Moody’s KMV model and agency credit ratings by constructing cumulative accuracy profiles (CAP) and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC). We find that the probability of default estimates from our model are equal or superior to other credit risk measures studied based on CAP and ROC. In particular, during the subprime crisis our model surpassed credit ratings and matched or exceeded KMV in anticipating the magnitude of the crisis. We have also found some initial evidence that adding off-balance-sheet derivatives exposure improves the performance of the KMV model.     

The timing of exchange rate collapse

Recent episodes of exchange rate collapse have renewed interest in models of speculative attacks. These episodes have been considered by some observers to be inconsistent with “fundamentals” models of attack since there was no prolonged period of policy misalignment and declining reserves, as required by such models. This paper develops a fundamentals model in which collapse is instantaneous at the time of unexpected policy change and/or a change in the expectations of future policy, even for a reserve abundant country.     

Teaching information technology alongside business analytics: Case study

Business analytics can be described as the statistical analysis of data to make decisions and meaningful conclusions. As the demand to advance the curriculum of undergraduate business education increases, courses in business analytics aim to provide students with fundamental skills in critical thinking. Educators have found that spreadsheet applications that include statistical features are easy to use and facilitate student learning. The authors analyzed student performance in an introductory business analytics course that used Microsoft Excel as a statistical tool by comparing scores from this introductory course with those from an information technology course in which only Excel skills were learned.     

Founding Family Firms,CEO Incentive Pay,and Dual Agency Problems

This paper contributes to the literature on agency theory by examining relations between family involvement and CEO compensation. Using a panel of 362 small U.S. listed firms, we analyze how founding families influence firm performance through option portfolio price sensitivity. Consistent with the dual agency framework, we find that family firms have lower CEO incentive pay, which is further reduced by higher executive ownership. Interestingly, such incentive pay offsets the positive impact that families have on firm valuation. Collectively, our results show that, compared with nonfamily firms, lower incentive pay adopted by family firms due to lower agency costs mitigates the direct effect of family involvement on firm performance. Once accounting for CEO incentive pay, we do not observe performance differences between family and nonfamily firms.     

Financial liberalization and banking crises in emerging economies

Financial liberalization often leads to financial crises. This link has usually been attributed to poorly designed banking systems, an explanation that is largely static. In this paper we develop a dynamic explanation, by modelling the evolution of a newly-liberalized bank's opportunities and incentives to take on risk over time. The model reveals that even if a banking system is well-designed, in the sense of having good long-run properties, many countries will enjoy an initial period of rapid, low-risk growth and then enter a period with an elevated risk of banking crisis. This transition emerges because of the way in which the degree of foreign competition, the marginal product of capital, and the bank's own net worth simultaneously evolve.     

The challenge for women expatriates and spouses: some empirical evidence

This is an exploratory study examining issues associated with women expatriates and their spouses. Individuals representing three groups - organizations, women expatriates, male spouses - were interviewed to identify their experiences and concerns. The authors conclude that this issue will pose a dramatic challenge for international organizations in the coming decades, and that it is timely to investigate the issue in more depth.     

Asymmetric Responses of the Underground Economy to Tax Changes: Evidence From New Zealand Data

This paper considers the relationship between taxes and the size of the New Zealand underground economy. Previous studies indicate that a positive relationship exists in this and certain other countries. This paper addresses the question: 'Is the response of the underground economy to an increase in taxes the same as its response to a decrease in taxes?' We find that although the effect on the underground economy of an upward movement in the effective tax rate is numerically greater than that of a downward tax movement, this difference is not statistically significant.