Macroeconomic Influences and the Variability of the Commodity Futures Basis

We provide evidence that the spread between commodity spot and futures prices (the basis) reflects the macroeconomic risks common to all asset markets. The basis of many commodities is correlated with the stock index dividend yield and corporate bond quality spread. Explanatory power is related to exposure to macroeconomic fluctuations: about 40 percent of the variation in the basis of a portfolio of commodities with high business cycle sensitivity is explained by the stock and bond yields. Further diagnostics indicate that these associations are largely due to the presence of risk premiums, rather than spot price forecasts, in the basis.     

CONSISTENT ESTIMATION OF RESIDUAL VARIANCE IN REGULATORY EVENT STUDIES

This study presents new evidence on alternative methods used to test for abnormal returns in regulatory event studies where cross-sectional correlation in residuals is significant. Results contradict earlier studies that find no advantages to using joint generalized least squares (JGLS) methods over ordinary least squares (OLS). We find that in an actual regulatory event study cross-correlation is significant, and that failing to correct for this correlation results in substantially higher calculated F-statistics. In Monte Carlo simulations we find that OLS test statistics are not well specified when residuals exhibit cross-sectional correlation at levels that are reasonable to expect in daily return data, while JGLS test statistics are well specified. The study includes tests of the effective power of the OLS and JGLS statistics.     

MUTUAL FUND MORTALITY, 12B‐1 FEES,AND THE NET EXPENSE RATIO

The Securities and Exchange Commission is currently reviewing Rule 12b‐1, which governs how fund advisors may pay for the distribution of fund shares. We provide evidence that even after adjusting for economies of scale, funds with 12b‐1 fees have higher expense ratios net of the 12b‐1 fees than do funds without such fees. This finding suggests that 12b‐1 fees are more than just a deadweight cost. We also demonstrate that 12b‐1 fees are highest for funds that ultimately fail, that the proportion of funds with 12b‐1 fees is increasing over time, and that the level of those fees is also increasing over time.     

Indices for Working Land Conservation: Form Affects Function

Using environmental indices (EIs) to rank applications for enrollment in conservation programs is becoming common practice. However, there is little guidance on how it should be done. The indices adopted by existing programs have often been linear, using weighted averages of environmental parameters without explicit consideration of whether they represent a reliable preference ordering on environmental states. Our article investigates society's weights for addressing multiple resource concerns and how functional forms of EIs can influence program outcomes. We propose a means by which preference weights are observed from policymaker actions. Weights for multiple resource concerns are determined and combined with biophysical crop simulation data to create an environmental index (EI) for crop rotations. This index is developed using alternative function forms to score conservation efforts on working cropland and to measure their effect on program outcomes.     

The impact of leniency and whistle-blowing programs on cartels

Antitrust authorities have set up leniency programs for cartel members that denounce their collusive agreements. These programs help prosecute participants and can thereby deter collusion. We compare the impact of reduced fines and positive rewards and argue that rewarding individuals, including firm employees, can deter collusion in a more effective way.We discuss possible adverse effects of whistle-blowing programs on firms' behavior, and particularly on turnover, incentives to innovate and cooperation. We also explore explanations for the puzzling fact that managers keep incriminating evidence and argue reward programs actually provide additional incentives for keeping such evidence.     

Results on the bias and inconsistency of ordinary least squares for the linear probability model

This note formalizes bias and inconsistency results for ordinary least squares (OLS) on the linear probability model and provides sufficient conditions for unbiasedness and consistency to hold. The conditions suggest that a “trimming estimator” may reduce OLS bias.     

Market Integration and Price Execution for NYSE-Listed Securities

For New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) listed securities, the price execution of seemingly comparable orders differs systematically by location. In general, executions at the Cincinnati, Midwest, and New York stock exchanges are most favorable to trade initiators, while executions at the National Association of Security Dealers (NASD) are least favorable. These intermarket price differences depend on trade size, with the smallest trades exhibiting the biggest per share price difference. Collectively, these results raise questions about the adequacy of the existing intermarket quote system (ITS), the broker's fiduciary responsibility for “best execution,” and the propriety of order flow inducements.     

Matching Supply and Demand: The Value of a Second Chance in Producing Seed Corn

This paper analyzes the supply chain for hybrid seed corn in which there are two sequential production periods with random yields before demand occurs. We show that the problem of managing the supply chain can be viewed as a multiperiod optimization model that is easily solved. By examining data that represents actual costs, prices, and yields encountered in the seed corn industry, we gain some insight into the value that the second production period provides. Using a representative sample of hybrids from a major seed corn producer, we show that margins could be enhanced considerably by using the model.     

An Experimental Assessment of the Effects of Two Alcoholic Beverage Health Warnings Across Countries and Binge-Drinking Status

In recent years, alcohol-related problems on college campuses have been well documented. This research examines how two different alcoholic beverage health warnings placed on the label of a fictitious brand of beer influence alcohol-related risk perceptions, attitudes and intentions, and characterizations of problem-drinking behaviors of binge and non-binge drinkers in Australia and the United States. The consumer welfare implications of our findings, which show that the dependent measures are influenced by both main and interaction effects, are discussed.