Resampling a time-series process: A method of estimating the probabilities associated with alternative plans for protecting pensions against inflation

Any pension protection formula that falls short of complete compensation for inflation has associated with it a time-series of probability distributions of future purchasing power losses. A method of estimating those distributions is proposed and applied. The method is based on the idea of representing inflation as a multivariate time-series process and using a model fitted to historical data to generate a large artificial sample of ‘realized’ inflation sequences by means of a bootstrapping procedure. The purchasing power losses under a given protection plan can then be simulated for each inflation sequence and the sample distributions calculated.     

Health and schooling investments in Africa.

This paper first outlines an organizing framework for considering how health and schooling affect labor productivity and growth, and how household and community factors can in turn affect the demand for these human capital investments. Both cross-country growth models and various aspects of microeconomic studies of individual productivity as related to education and health are discussed. The conclusion offers some tentative leads for policy in this area based on existing research, and an agenda for future research.     

Analysis of the intertemporal behaviour of parameter estimates from a model of the United States economy

Zusammenfassung Untersuchungen der Veranderungen von Parametersch?tzungen im Zeitablauf an einem Modell der Volkswirtschaft der Vereinigten Staaten. — Prognosen aufgrund ?konometrischer Modelle erfordern eine standige Revision, um die neuesten Daten einfügen zu k?nnen. Ein etwas vernachl?ssigtes Ergebnis besteht darin, da\ dabei die Sch?tzungen der zugrunde liegenden Parameter beeinflu\t werden. Es ist das Ziel der vorliegenden Abhandlung, die zeitlichen Ver?nderungen der Parameterschatzungen eines makro-?konomischen Modells, die aufgrund verschiedener Methoden gewonnen wurden, zu untersuchen. Die Studie kommt zu dem Ergebnis, da\ die Sch?tzwerte, die aufgrund einer Sequenzanalyse erzielt wurden, ausgepr?gten Trends folgen und da\ darüber hinaus die zeitlichen Perioden, die aufgrund alternativer Sch?tzmethoden bestimmt wurden, oft erheblich voneinander abweichen.

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Résumé Analyse des changements successifs dans l’estimation des paramètres d’un modèle de l’économie des Etats-Unis. — Le pronostic à l’aide de modèles économétriques exige une révision continuelle en vue d’incorporer les données les plus récentes. Le résultat, quelque peu négligé, en est que les estimations des param\ `etres de base en sont affectées. Cet article cherche à analyser les changements successifs des paramètres d’un modèle macro-économique — estimations qui furent trouvées par de différentes méthodes. L’étude arrive à la conclusion que les estimations trouvées par une analyse séquentielle suivent des tendances prononcées et, en outre, que les périodes trouvées par de différentes méthodes diffèrent souvent sensiblement l’une de l’autre.

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Resumen Análisis de las variaciones de paráetres estimados en el tiempo, utilizando un modelo de la economía de los Estados Unidos. — Proyecciones hechas con la ayuda de modelos econométricos requieren un revisión permanente con el fin de poder introducir los datos más recientes. El problems que entonces surge, y que nos recibe siempre la debida atenci?n, consiste en que las estimaciones de los paramé-tras reaccionen de alguna mariera. El objetivo del presente trabajo es analizar la variación de estas estimaciones en el tiempo; para ello se emplea un modelo macroecon?mico estimado por diversos métodos. El resultado del anàlisis es que las estimaciones conseguidas por medio de un análisis de secuencia muestran claramente un trend; ademas se puede ver que los resultados obtenidos a través de métodos de estimaci?n alternatives difieren a menudo de modo sustancial los unos de los otros.

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Riassunto Esami delle modificazioni di stime di parametro nel decorso del tempo in un modello dell’economia degli Stati Uniti. — Prognosi in base a modelli econometrici richiedono una revisione costante per poter inserire i dati più recenti. Un risultato un po’ trascurato consiste nel fatto che con ci? sono influenzate le stime dei parametri che sono alla base. E obiettivo del presente studio di esaminare le modificazioni temporali delle stime dei parametri di un modello macroeconomico che fu ottenuto in base a metodi diversi. Lo studio perviene al risultato che i valori di stima che furono raggiunti in base ad un’analisi di sequenza seguono ?trend? marcati e che oltre a ciò i periodi temporali che furono determinati in base a metodi di stima alternativi spesso differiscono in maniera rilevante.

     

Irish consumer perceptions of meat hazards and use of extrinsic information cues

The purpose of this research was to examine the factors that underpin risk perceptions for meat hazards and assess the degree to which these perceptions reflect overall concern. It also sought to identify any differences that exist in information use. A total of 238 meat customers were surveyed in Cork, Ireland. An analysis of consumer perceptions revealed a two-factor structure, 'dread' and 'unknown', similar to Slovic (1992). A perceptual map of the various hazards associated with meat clearly highlighted different groups of hazards and the differing perceptions associated with them. There were groupings between BSE, E-coli and Salmonella, antibiotics, growth hormones and genetic modifications, and saturated fats and cholesterol. Cluster analysis highlighted the differences in attitudes towards meat hazards across the sample population. However, an analysis of the demographic and behavioural variables found no distinguishable features across the identified segments, except in their use of written information. The butcher, quality assurance (QA) marks, country of origin and labelling were identified as the most helpful risk relievers. However, no significant differences were identified between perceived helpfulness and level of perceived 'dread' and 'unknown'. Use of written information by consumers (labels, quality marks and information brochures) was significantly related to their overall concern about hazards.     

A moving target: The geographic evolution of Silicon Valley, 1953–1990

This article provides an empirical examination of high-tech firm location data from 1953 to 1990 to show a dramatic shift in geographic centre of what is now called Silicon Valley. Universities (most notably Stanford), venture capital and law firms acted as magnets for divisions of established firms and local start-ups. These institutions combined with the Santa Clara County’s available land to pull the high-tech region’s epicentre south-eastwards from San Francisco, an early source of investment capital and legal expertise. These findings add another element (spatial change) for consideration in explaining the evolution of industry clusters.     

The Feminist Competition/Cooperation Dichotomy

Feminist literature sometimes posits that competition and cooperation are opposites. This dichotomy is important in that it is often invoked in order to explain why mainstream economics has focused on market activity to the exclusion of non-market activity, and why this fascination or focus is sexist. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that the competition/cooperation dichotomy is false. Once the dichotomy is dissolved, those activities which are seen as competitive (masculine) and those which are seen as cooperative (feminine) are no longer mutually exclusive but are, in fact, dependent upon one another. It is shown that the outcome of competition (more and better knowledge) enhances, and in some cases makes possible, cooperation. The function of battle is destruction; of competition, construction. Ludwig von Mises