What to Value and How? Ecological Indicator Choices in Stated Preference Valuation

The ecological literature accepts that many policy outcomes cannot be observed directly and must be characterized using indicators. Multiple indicators can often be used to communicate similar ecological outcomes. Previous studies using alternative indicators in stated preference surveys suggest that welfare estimates may be indicator-dependent, casting doubt on whether welfare estimates are sufficiently reliable for cost benefit analysis. We suggest that the reason for such indicator dependence may be that indicators used in these prior studies represented different outcomes valued by respondents. This possibility underscores the need for greater attention to selection of indicators and their properties within stated preference survey design. This paper develops a model introducing the concept of outcome equivalent indicators, defined as indicators that provide alternative representations of identical underlying outcomes. To assess empirically whether welfare estimates are indeed robust to indicator choice when alternative indicators are expected to be outcome equivalent, we analyze data from a choice experiment estimating willingness to pay for migratory fish restoration in Rhode Island, USA. Results demonstrate that welfare estimates are robust to the use of alternative ecological indicators within stated preference scenarios.     

Consumer poaching,brand switching,and price transparency

This paper addresses price transparency on the consumer side in markets with behavioral price discrimination which feature welfare reducing brand switching. When long-term contracts are not available, an increase in transparency intensifies competition, lowers prices and profits, reduces brand switching and benefits consumers and welfare. With long-term contracts, an increase in transparency reduces the use of long-term contracts, leading to more brand switching and a welfare loss. Otherwise, the results are the same as without long-term contracts.     

Measuring the sustainability and economic viability of tropical farming systems: a model from sub-Saharan Africa

New technologies must be developed in sub-Saharan Africa which are sustainable and economically viable. This paper discusses a methodology for measuring the agricultural sustainability and economic viability of tropical farming systems for new technology evaluation. The approach is based on the concept of interspatial and intertemporal total factor productivity, paying particular attention to valuation of natural resource stock and flows. Agriculture is a sector which utilizes natural resources (e.g. soil nutrients) and the stock and flows of these resources affect the production environment. However, in many cases, the stock of these resources is beyond the control of the farmer and must be accounted for in an agricultural sustainability and economic viability measurement. For example, soil nutrients are removed by crops, erosion or leaching beyond the crop root-zone, or other processes such as volatilization of nitrogen. Agricultural production can also contribute to the stock of some nutrients by leguminous plants such as agroforestry systems. Using a data set available at the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, we compute the intertemporal and interspatial total factor productivity indices for four cropping systems in southwestern Nigeria using stock of major soil nutrients as the natural resource stock. Results show that the sustainability and economic viability measures are sensitive to changes in the stock and flow of soil nutrients as well as the material inputs and outputs. Where the contribution of natural resource stock and flows are important (such as in the case of alley cropping), the measures provide markedly different results from conventional TFP approaches. The advantage of this approach is that interspatial and intertemporal total factor productivity measures are computed using only price and quantity data, thus eliminating the need for econometric estimation.     

Modelling of potential food policy interventions in Fiji and Tonga and their impacts on noncommunicable disease mortality

Background

To compare the likely costs and benefits of a range of potential policy interventions in Fiji and Tonga targeted at diet-related noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), in order to support more evidence-based decision-making.

Method

A relatively simple and quick macro-simulation methodology was developed. Logic models were developed by local stakeholders and used to identify costs and dietary impacts of policy changes. Costs were confined to government costs, and excluded cost offsets. The best available evidence was combined with local data to model impacts on deaths from noncommunicable diseases over the lifetime of the target population. Given that the modelling necessarily entailed assumptions to compensate for gaps in data and evidence, use was made of probabilistic uncertainty analysis.

Results

Costs of implementing policy changes were generally low, with the exception of some requiring additional long-term staffing or construction activities. The most effective policy options in Fiji and Tonga targeted access to local produce and high-fat meats respectively, and were estimated to avert approximately 3% of diet-related NCD deaths in each population. Many policies had substantially lower benefits. Cost-effectiveness was higher for the low-cost policies. Similar policies produced markedly different results in the two countries.

Conclusion

Despite the crudeness of the method, the consistent modelling approach used across all the options, allowed reasonable comparisons to be made between the potential policy costs and impacts. This type of modelling can be used to support more evidence-based and informed decision-making about policy interventions and facilitate greater use of policy to achieve a reduction in NCDs.     

Maintaining Legitimacy: Controversies,Orders of Worth,and Public Justifications

We build on Boltanski and Thévenot's theory of justification to account for the ways in which different stakeholder groups actively engage with discourses and objects to maintain the legitimacy of institutions that are relevant to their activity. We use this framework to analyse a controversy emerging from a nuclear accident which involved a large European energy company and sparked public debate on the legitimacy of nuclear power. Based on the findings, we elaborate a process model of institutional repair that explains the role of agents and the structural constraints they face in attempting to maintain legitimacy. The model enhances institutional understandings of legitimacy maintenance in three main respects: it proposes a view of legitimacy maintenance as a controversy‐based process progressing through stakeholders' justifications vis‐à‐vis a public audience; it demonstrates the role of meta‐level ‘orders of worth’ as multiple modalities for agreement which shape stakeholders' public justifications during controversies; and it highlights the capacities that stakeholders deploy in developing robust justifications out of a plurality of forms of agreement.     

Time-varying short-horizon predictability

In the G7 countries, the short-horizon performance of aggregate return predictors such as the dividend yield and the short rate appears non-existent during business cycle expansions but sizable during contractions. This phenomenon appears related to countercyclical risk premiums as well as the time-variation in the dynamics of predictors. Our empirical model outperforms the historical average out-of-sample in the US, but the results throughout the G7 are mixed.     

Relating Consumer Willingness-to-Pay for Food Safety to Risk Tolerance: An Experimental Approach

This study investigates the role of risk tolerance in shaping Canadian consumers' willingness-to-pay for food safety risk reductions. Non-hypothetical experimental auctions were used to elicit consumer valuations of food safety improvement. To identify the relationship between food safety concern and risk-reduction valuations, individual risk-perception scores are constructed based on questionnaire responses. Results show willingness-to-pay for improved food safety tends to decrease as individuals become more risk tolerant. Differences in bids across naïve and informed rounds of bidding tend to become smaller with risk tolerance for individuals who initially overestimated the food safety risk.     

Application and performance impact of stage–gate systems – the role services in the firm’s business focus

Although service innovation is important, knowledge of new product and service development, including the positive effect of stage‐and‐gate‐type systems, has been derived almost exclusively from studies in the manufacturing sector. In the present paper, we address two important questions: How do differences in the firm’s business focus, which describes whether a firm puts more emphasis on products or services in its business activities, influence the usage of such formal innovation processes? Is stage‐and‐gate‐type systems’ impact on innovation program performance contingent on the firm’s business focus? Unlike previous studies, we not only differentiate service and manufacturing by industry classification codes but also apply a continuous measure to take into account the blurring of boundaries between the manufacturing and service businesses. Based on a comprehensive discussion of service‐specific characteristics and their implications for innovation management and using a cross‐industry, multi‐informant sample of innovation programs from 272 firms with 1,985 informants, we find empirical support for firms with a stronger focus on the service business being less likely to use stage‐and‐gate‐type systems. Furthermore, the use of stage‐and‐gate‐type systems fosters innovation program performance, and this effect becomes stronger as the business focus shifts toward services. This result implies that service‐based firms can benefit from stage‐and‐gate‐type systems to a greater extent than product‐based firms. Our research also demonstrates the gap between the desired level of innovation process formalization and its current usage in practice, especially for firms with a dominating service business.