PROBLEMS,POLICIES AND DATA NEEDS IN CANADIAN AGRICULTURE*

This study maintains that the development of Canadian agriculture requires a reassessment of the values, constraints and goals relating to the sector, with a view to conceive and implement a goals-means-targets structure more amenable to progress. The solution of the economic, socio-psychological and organizational problems which beset Canadian agriculture is presently hindered by a paucity of adequate, timely data in crucial areas. The performance of the policy-maker and the agricultural producer have been generally suboptimal, as exemplified by extemporization in the case of the former and secular inefficiencies and forgone opportunities in the case of the latter. Cette étude maintienl que le développement de ?agriculture canadienne impose un réajustment des valeurs, des conlrainles et des objectifs agricoles. afin de concevoir et ?aménager des structures évolutives englobant les fins et les moyens. Le manque de données valables et opportuns dans les domaines cruciaux nous empêche d.apporter une solution aux problémes économiques, socio-psychologiques el structured auxquels ?agriculture canadienne se heurle aujourd'hui. Ni les responsables de la politique agricole ni les producteurs n'ont atteint un optimum ?efficacité, c'esl ce que démontre ?improvisation qui règne dans la politique agricole et ?inefficacité séculaire et les occasions manquées dans le cas des producteurs.     

The Competitive Effects of Advertising in the US Automobile Industry, 1970‐94

Is advertising anticompetitive? One school of thought in industrial economics holds that advertising increases profits and reduces consumer welfare by creating spurious product differentiation and barriers to entry. Another school focuses on the informative character of advertising, claiming that advertising makes markets more competitive and reduces profits by supplying consumers with information about price and quality. We distinguish these views by examining the effect of advertising on competition in the US automobile industry. Our data include advertising, sales, profit, and market-share figures for General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler over a 25-year period from 1970 to 1994.We ask if advertising increases or decreases profitability, controlling for market structure and other factors affecting demand.Wefind that these firms cannot increase their profits above normal levels by increasing their advertising expenditures. This evidence supports the view that advertising serves primarily to transmit information, not to create entry barriers.     

Through a glass clearly: management practice on the Bowes family estates c.1700-70 as revealed by the accounts

Through the accounts, the article examines the management practices employed on the Bowes estates in order to ascertain whether they were managed as profit centres to be exploited, and whether accounting aided managerial activity at this early stage of industrial development. The majority of the estate accounts were designed to keep track of rights and obligations. The survival of cost analysis, profit statements and planning data indicates that the estates were not treated simply as units of consumption and that the accounts played an important facilitating role. There are indications that a knowledge-power mechanism also existed within the estates, casting doubt both on the mutual exclusivity of Economic-rationalist and Foucauldian explanations of accounting activities and on the notion that a relevant distinction exists between modern and pre-modern business organization.     

Using Leading Indicators to Forecast U.S. Home Sales in a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Framework

This article uses Bayesian vector autoregressive models to examine the usefulness of leading indicators in predicting U.S. home sales. The benchmark Bayesian model includes home sales, price of homes, mortgage rate, real personal disposable income, and unemployment rate. We evaluate the forecasting performance of six alternative leading indicators by adding each, in turn, to the benchmark model. Out-of-sample forecast performance over three periods shows that the model that includes building permits authorized consistently produces the most accurate forecasts. Thus, the intention to build in the future provides good information with which to predict U.S. home sales. Another finding suggests that leading indicators with longer leads outperform the short-leading indicators.