Services, growth poles and advanced economies

In the twenty-first century, nearly 70% of new jobs in the US have been in services, matching worldwide expansion of the services sector. This paper discusses the role of services in advanced economies internationally as a vehicle for ongoing growth and prosperity. The discussion will be frames through pole theory. Contributions of private, profit driven service activity is assessed. Services provide stability while contributing to the growth process, and may constitute growth poles on their own as in money markets and insurance. Services facilitate business and business change, both in domestic and international markets.     

A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments*

The difference and system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators are growing in popularity. As implemented in popular software, the estimators easily generate instruments that are numerous and, in system GMM, potentially suspect. A large instrument collection overfits endogenous variables even as it weakens the Hansen test of the instruments’ joint validity. This paper reviews the evidence on the effects of instrument proliferation, and describes and simulates simple ways to control it. It illustrates the dangers by replicating Forbes [American Economic Review (2000) Vol. 90, pp. 869–887] on income inequality and Levine et al. [Journal of Monetary Economics] (2000) Vol. 46, pp. 31–77] on financial sector development. Results in both papers appear driven by previously undetected endogeneity.     

Tourism Policy Making:: The Policymakers’ Perspectives

This research explores tourism policy making, from the perspectives of policy makers using grounded theory. It focuses on Leeds, a city in the North of England, which is characterized by its turbulent environment. The paper identifies themes around policy making, including low status, lack of clarity, uncertainty, lack of consensus and congruence and complexity. Its findings indicate policy making is essentially a social process, involving communication and negotiation between people in the context of wider change. It suggests a social conceptualization, and further research to investigate the communications involved in producing policy rather than the focus on the tangible outputs of the process such as a plan or a physical development.     

Homeownership and Child Welfare

Recent studies have concluded that homeownership is beneficial to children. This result is important because it is used to justify large government subsidies that encourage homeownership. We reexamine the results of two of the most prominent of these studies using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, Public Use Microsample, and National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data. We extend this research by controlling for residential mobility, wealth, dwelling type and vehicle ownership, as well as by using a "differences in differences" methodology to deal with possible treatment effects bias. We find that the beneficial effects of homeownership previously measured are substantially reduced or eliminated by controlling for these factors. We confirm these results using data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study.     

Policy Implications of the Effects of Concentration and Multimarket Contact in China’s Airline Market

Unlike many other mergers in developed countries, which might have been assessed and their effects estimated by antitrust authorities before being granted antitrust immunity, the airline mergers that swept China’s airline industry in 2002 occurred with no antitrust challenge. These mergers provide the opportunity to study important market power issues in China’s airline markets. Given that increased concentration and multimarket contact are the main legacies of an airline merger, the effects of mergers on these variables can raise the potential for the exercise of market power. However, an examination of the period 2002–2004 during which the Chinese airline mergers occurred shows that the resulting increased concentration and enhanced multimarket contact did not have important consequences for airfares in Chinese city-pair markets. The presence of Hainan Airlines appears to have played an important role in suppressing the airfares charged by China Eastern and China Southern.     

Running From a Bear: How Poor Stock Market Performance Affects the Determinants of Mutual Fund Flows

Abstract:  Using a proprietary data set to study how past performance affects the determinants of mutual fund flows for a sample of load fund investors, I provide evidence that the determinants of fund flow depend on market conditions for both redemptions and purchases. Specifically, I show that, for redemptions, relative performance and risk adjusted performance are important determinants during a period of record flows into mutual funds. Conversely, during a period of poor performance, absolute performance becomes much more important and relative performance and risk adjusted performance become less important. For purchases, absolute performance, risk adjusted performance, and most relative performance measures become more important during the bear market.     

Exclusive contracts foster relationship‐specific investment

Exclusive contracts prohibit one or both parties from trading with anyone else. Contrary to earlier findings, we show that investments that are specific to the contracting parties may be encouraged by exclusivity. Results depend on the nature of investments and the bargaining solution. The major part of the analysis shows that exclusivity deals designed to “assure” the supply of essential inputs promote investment. Infinite penalties for breach, even if ex post renegotiable, may result in excessive investment, in which case a positive but finite damage payment yields the first‐best outcome.