创新始于同理心

几年前，出版商邀我写一木关于创新的书。这些年他们读了一些我这方面的文章，希望我再写一些文章集结成书。我很感荣幸，但我很难从命。因为关于创新的书已经比比皆足，再多一本也无益处。我向他们提了另外一个建议：或许一本关于同理心的书更能契合社会所需。     

Cooperative strategies for the availability service of repairable aircraft components

This paper specifies cooperative strategies for the availability service of repairable aircraft components and finds out which factors contribute to the emergence of a particular cooperative strategy. The strategies ad hoc cooperation, cooperative pooling and commercial pooling were specified and compared to the alternative of acting alone, i.e. solo strategy. A simulation model based on fair assumptions of the cost structure was constructed and the cooperative strategies were tested in a game theoretic setting both from the viewpoint of total efficiency and from the perspective of each participant. Despite the explicit focus on aircraft components, the findings should be relevant to any industry using a closed-loop maintenance process with repairable spare parts.     

Securities laws in the host countries and the capital structure of US multinationals

We examine whether securities laws in the host countries influence the capital structure choice of United States (US) multinational corporations. We develop firm-level global indices to classify each corporation in terms of its exposure to the security laws that govern the rights of security holders in the countries where it has subsidiaries. The results show that the use of long-term debt is positively related to the firm's global standing in terms of common law legal origin, burden of proof, investor protection, disclosure requirements, and public enforcement. The securities laws in a country affect the capital structure of multinational corporations that has subsidiaries in that country.     

Does Output Gap,Labour's Share or Unemployment Rate Drive Inflation?

We propose a new methodology for ranking in probability the commonly proposed drivers of inflation in the new Keynesian model. The approach is based on Bayesian model selection among restricted vector autoregressive (VAR) models, each of which embodies only one or none of the candidate variables as the driver. Simulation experiments suggest that our procedure is superior to the previously used conventional pairwise Granger causality tests in detecting the true driver. Empirical results lend little support to labour share, output gap or unemployment rate as the driver of US inflation.     

Does corporate social responsibility affect the cost of capital?

We examine the effect of corporate social responsibility (CSR) on the cost of equity capital for a large sample of US firms. Using several approaches to estimate firms’ ex ante cost of equity, we find that firms with better CSR scores exhibit cheaper equity financing. In particular, our findings suggest that investment in improving responsible employee relations, environmental policies, and product strategies contributes substantially to reducing firms’ cost of equity. Our results also show that participation in two “sin” industries, namely, tobacco and nuclear power, increases firms’ cost of equity. These findings support arguments in the literature that firms with socially responsible practices have higher valuation and lower risk.     

The Capital Structure of Swiss Companies: an Empirical Analysis Using Dynamic Panel Data

In this paper, we analyse the determinants of the capital structure for a panel of 104 Swiss companies listed in the Swiss stock exchange. Dynamic tests are performed for the period 1991–2000. It is found that the size of companies and the importance of tangible assets are positively related to leverage, while growth and profitability are negatively associated with leverage. The sign of these relations suggest that both the pecking order and trade‐off theories are at work in explaining the capital structure of Swiss companies, although more evidence exists to validate the latter theory. Our analysis also shows that Swiss firms adjust toward a target debt ratio, but the adjustment process is much slower than in most other countries. It is argued that reasons for this can be found in the institutional context.     

Noncausal Bayesian Vector Autoregression

We consider Bayesian analysis of the noncausal vector autoregressive model that is capable of capturing nonlinearities and effects of missing variables. Specifically, we devise a fast and reliable posterior simulator that yields the predictive distribution as a by‐product. We apply the methods to postwar US inflation and GDP growth. The noncausal model is found superior in terms of both in‐sample fit and out‐of‐sample forecasting performance over its conventional causal counterpart. Economic shocks based on the noncausal model turn out to be highly anticipated in advance. We also find the GDP growth to have predictive power for future inflation, but not vice versa. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Are government-linked IPOs underpriced? A three country privatization effort comparison

Underpricing in the case of the initial public offerings of private (non-government) firms has been well documented. However, there does not appear to be any systematic study of the price performance of “government-linked” companies or GLCs, which have been “privatized” through public offerings in the stock market. This study examines the hypothesis that the initial public offerings (IPOs) of such companies in the United Kingdom, Singapore, and Malaysia will not only be underpriced, but their degree of underpricing will be relatively greater when compared to firms with no governmental links. The results provide strong support for this hypothesis.     

Analyst recommendations and the implied cost of equity

We investigate the relation between analyst recommendations and the cost of equity implied by current stock price and earnings forecasts. Contrary to expectations, previous-year recommendation upgrades are associated with increases in the current cost of equity; and past increases in the cost of equity are associated with current recommendation downgrades. Furthermore, changes in the implied cost of equity and changes in analyst recommendations jointly explain as much as 31% of the variation in 1-year holding period returns, where most of the variation (28%) is explained by the implied cost of equity alone. We document that when forming recommendations, analysts underestimate the role of the cost of equity.     

Charitable inclination and the chief executive officer's pay package

Using chief executive officers’ (CEOs’) lifetime nonemployment experience in prominent charitable organizations to create a proxy for CEO charitable inclination, I find that charitably inclined CEOs receive a significant pay premium. The pay premium sensitivity to CEO charitable inclination is particularly pronounced for male, external, and specialist CEOs who are employed at firms that are undiversified, larger, less debt reliant, poor performing, facing high product‐market competition, and that keep nonmanipulative financial statements and demonstrate high inclination to social responsibility in the area of diversity, employee relations, and internal governance. This research contributes to the broader debate on labor market pricing of CEO characteristics.