THE RESPONSE OF FORWARD EXCHANGE RATES TO INTEREST RATE FORECASTING ERRORS

This paper examines the effects of interest rate news on changes in forward foreign exchange rates. Virtually none of the errors in forecasting forward exchange rates are explained by interest rate forecasting errors. The results are consistent with a conjecture that the forward exchange rate is not an estimate of the expected spot exchange rate.     

Containership routing with time deadlines and simultaneous deliveries and pick-ups

In this paper we seek to determine optimal routes for a containership fleet performing pick-ups and deliveries between a hub and several spoke ports. A capacitated vehicle routing problem with pick-ups, deliveries and time deadlines is formulated and solved using a hybrid genetic algorithm for establishing routes for a dedicated containership fleet. Results on the performance of the algorithm and the feasibility of the approach show that a relatively small fleet of containerships could provide efficient services within deadlines. Moreover, through sensitivity analysis we discuss performance robustness and consistency of the developed algorithm under a variety of problem settings and parameters values.     

Foreign Debt and Economic Development

This paper characterizes the optimal path of foreign public debt that can support politically unanimous (Pareto welfare improving) economic growth under uncertainty. The feasibility of the plan depends on whether the maintenance of political consensus in the debtor country requires additional loans that are high relative to the country's outstanding debt. If a program is feasible, then the creditors will have an incentive to preserve political support for the plan, in case of adverse developments, by offering debt relief. Unlike the certainty case, where only total debt matters, uncertainty makes also the timing of debt repayments critical for economic development.     

Real money balances as a productive input: Further evidence

Using a translog production function and data from the United States private sector over the period 1929–1972, this paper clarifies the theoretical debate which has occured on whether real money balances are an original factor input or a catalyst with a role similar to technological innovation. Real money balances are found to be an important factor input that cannot be treated as separable from the primary factor inputs capital and labor. Furthermore, the results indicate that real money balances are substitutes for capital but complements with labor while capital and labor are, in a relative sense complements.     

The impact on Greek agriculture from membership in the European economic community

This paper estimates empirically the impact of Greek membership in the European Economic Community (EEC) on production, consumption, and trade of 18 major agricultural products of Greece. The model used combines the limited available data into a multiproduct supply and demand framework and quantifies the effect of transferring the EEC agricultural price structure on Greece. The basic results indicate that Greek farmers would lose substantially and their agricultural balance of trade seriously deteriorate, while Greek consumers would not be seriously affected as a consequence of EEC membership in 1986. Sensitivity analysis on several key assumptions and consideration of structural effects seem to support these conclusions.     

Investigating the accuracy of cross-learning time series forecasting methods

The M4 competition identified innovative forecasting methods, advancing the theory and practice of forecasting. One of the most promising innovations of M4 was the utilization of cross-learning approaches that allow models to learn from multiple series how to accurately predict individual ones. In this paper, we investigate the potential of cross-learning by developing various neural network models that adopt such an approach, and we compare their accuracy to that of traditional models that are trained in a series-by-series fashion. Our empirical evaluation, which is based on the M4 monthly data, confirms that cross-learning is a promising alternative to traditional forecasting, at least when appropriate strategies for extracting information from large, diverse time series data sets are considered. Ways of combining traditional with cross-learning methods are also examined in order to initiate further research in the field.     

Strategic Corporate Social Responsibility Activities and Corporate Governance in Imperfectly Competitive Markets

We investigate the incentives of firms' owners to commit voluntarily to corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities in an oligopolistic market. The socially responsible attributes attached to products are considered as credence goods, with consumers forming expectations about their existence and level. We show that hiring an ‘individually’ socially responsible CEO and delegating to him the CSR effort and market decisions acts as a commitment device for the firm's owners and credibly signals to consumers that the firm will undertake the ‘missioned’ CSR activities. We also find that CSR activities are welfare enhancing for consumers and firms and thus, they should be encouraged. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Convergence in Income Inequality: Further Evidence from the Club Clustering Methodology across States in the U.S.

This paper contributes to the sparse literature on inequality convergence by empirically testing convergence across states in the U.S. This sample period encompasses a series of different periods that the existing literature discusses -- the Great Depression (1929–1944), the Great Compression (1945–1979), the Great Divergence (1980-present), the Great Moderation (1982–2007), and the Great Recession (2007–2009). This paper implements the relatively new method of panel convergence testing, recommended by Phillips and Sul (2007). This method examines the club convergence hypothesis, which argues that certain countries, states, sectors, or regions belong to a club that moves from disequilibrium positions to their club-specific steady-state positions. We find strong support for convergence through the late 1970s and early 1980s, and then evidence of divergence. The divergence, however, moves the dispersion of inequality measures across states only a fraction of the way back to their levels in the early part of the twentieth century.     

Diffusion of steam-powered firefighting equipment in the United States: innovation adoption at the municipal level

To date, econometrics-based diffusion studies have focused almost exclusively on the timing of adoption of new technology by firms and individuals. While there are detailed case studies on the evolution of firefighting for some of the largest U.S. cities in the nineteenth century, ours is the first formal econometric diffusion study of the timing of adoption of steam-powered, firefighting engines, whose first adoption was an important initial step in the evolution from independent volunteer fire departments to centralized control at the municipal level. We find evidence that the amount of manufacturing capital at risk of fire loss played a crucial role in influencing the timing of initial adoptions of this technology. This is consistent with the argument that increased industrialization in large cities was conducive to the growth in capital-intensive firefighting and centralized control of fire departments in urban America during this period.     

The ecosystem as helix: an exploratory theory-building study of regional co-opetitive entrepreneurial ecosystems as Quadruple/Quintuple Helix Innovation Models

Regions are increasingly being viewed as eco-systemic agglomerations of organizational and institutional entities or stakeholders with socio-technical, socio-economic, and socio-political conflicting as well as converging (co-opetitive) goals, priorities, expectations, and behaviors that they pursue via entrepreneurial development, exploration, exploitation, and deployment actions, reactions and interactions. In this context, our paper aims to explore and profile the nature and dynamics of the Quadruple/Quintuple Helix Innovation System Model or Framework (government, university, industry, civil society, environment) as an enabler and enactor of regional co-opetitive entrepreneurial ecosystems which we conceptualize as fractal, multi-level, multi-modal, multi-nodal, and multi-lateral configurations of dynamic tangible and intangible assets within the resource-based view and the new theory of the growth of the firm. Co-opetitive fractal innovation and entrepreneurship ecosystems are defined and discussed, and examples of regional innovation policies and programs are presented. Furthermore, the concept of multi-level innovation systems is analyzed, taking into account the existence of knowledge clusters and innovation networks, while alternative aggregations of multi-level innovation systems are proposed based on their spatial (geographical) and non-spatial (research-based) functional properties.