Speculative hyperinflations and currency substitution

We propose a rational expectations framework for understanding speculative hyperinflations that end in response to ‘orthodox’ stabilization programs. Motivated by a strong degree of hysteresis in the stock of real balances after the end of hyperinflations, we provide a cash-and-credit model in which the money demand exhibits persistence because individuals can establish long-lasting credit relationships. We use the model to show that if hysteresis in real balances is possible then a fiscal–monetary reform that successfully stops a speculative hyperinflation may fail to prevent it. We argue that speculative hyperinflationary equilibria are consistent with some key stylized facts observed in extreme hyperinflations.     

THIS IS NOT A CREDIT CRISIS – IT IS A DEBT CRISIS

Using an analogy with ancient Babylonia as its leading theme, this viewpoint argues that the credit crisis is the symptom of an underlying problem. Fuelled by government policies, unprecedented debt levels were run up in industrialised countries over the last quarter century. Present policies of financial sector bailouts are not only an unwise use of taxpayers' money; they maintain economic structures opposed to what classical liberals such as J. S. Mill envisaged as a free-market economy.     

Preference for equivalent random variables: A price for unbounded utilities

Savage's expected utility theory orders acts by the expectation of the utility function for outcomes over states. Therefore, preference between acts depends only on the utilities for outcomes and the probability distribution of states. When acts have more than finitely many possible outcomes, then utility is bounded in Savage's theory. This paper explores consequences of allowing preferences over acts with unbounded utility. Under certain regularity assumptions about indifference, and in order to respect (uniform) strict dominance between acts, there will be a strict preference between some pairs of acts that have the same distribution of outcomes. Consequently in these cases, preference is not a function of utility and probability alone.     

An automatic Portmanteau test for serial correlation

This article introduces a data-driven Box–Pierce test for serial correlation. The proposed test is very attractive compared to the existing ones. In particular, implementation of this test is extremely simple for two reasons: first, the researcher does not need to specify the order of the autocorrelation tested, since the test automatically chooses this number; second, its asymptotic null distribution is chi-square with one degree of freedom, so there is no need of using a bootstrap procedure to estimate the critical values. In addition, the test is robust to the presence of conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form. Finally, the proposed test presents higher power in simulations than the existing ones for models commonly employed in empirical finance.     

Monetary Policy in the Greenspan Era: A Time Series Analysis of Rules vs. Discretion*

Relationships between the Federal funds rate, unemployment, inflation and the long‐term bond rate are investigated with cointegration techniques. We find a stable long‐term relationship between the Federal funds rate, unemployment and the bond rate. This relationship is interpretable as a policy target because deviations are corrected via the Federal funds rate. Deviations of the actual Federal funds rate from the estimated target give simple indications of discretionary monetary policy, and the larger deviations relate to special episodes outside the current information set. A more traditional Taylor‐type target, where inflation appears instead of the bond rate, does not seem congruent with the data.