Common trends and common cycles among interest rates of the G7-countries

Both, from a macroeconomic modeling perspective, as well as for a policy point of view, there has recently been a renewed interest in the cyclical and long-run comovement of interest rates. In this paper we re-investigate the long- and short-run comovements in the G7-countries by conducting tests for cointegration, common serial correlation and codependence with nominal and real interest rates, using quarterly data from 1975 to 2010. Overall, we find only little evidence of comovements. Common trends are occasionally observed, but the majority of interest rates are not cointegrated. Although some evidence for codependence of higher order is found in the pre-Euro area sample, common cycles appear to exist only in rare cases. We argue that some earlier, more positive findings are difficult to reconcile due to differing assumptions about the underlying stochastic properties of interest rates. We conclude that they cannot be generalized for all interest rates, time periods, and reasonable alternative estimation procedures.     

Linking material and energy flow analyses and social theory

The paper explores the potential of Habermas' theory of communicative action to alter the social reflexivity of material and energy flow analysis. With his social macro theory Habermas has provided an alternative, critical justification for social theory that can be distinguished from economic libertarianism and from political liberalism. Implicitly, most flow approaches draw from these theoretical traditions rather than from discourse theory. There are several types of material and energy flow analyses. While these concepts basically share a system theoretical view, they lack a specific interdisciplinary perspective that ties the fundamental insight of flows to disciplinary scientific development. Instead of simply expanding micro-models to the social macro-dimension social theory suggests infusing the very notion of flows to the progress of disciplines. With regard to the functional integration of society, material and energy flow analyses can rely on the paradigm of ecological economics and at the same time progress the debate between strong and weak sustainability within the paradigm. However, placing economics at the centre of their functional analyses may still ignore the broader social integration of society, depending on their pre-analytic outline of research and the methods used.     

An Epistemic Analysis of (Un)Sustainable Business

Michel Foucault famously analysed orders of knowledge, ‘epistemes’, in past European ages. In this study, his analytical method is fruitfully applied to gaining a better understanding of business sustainability within and beyond the Modern episteme. After an introduction to the contextual background for the study, this article provides (i) a justification for the use of a Foucauldian epistemic analytical method, (ii) an outline of the method, (iii) an application of the method to identify four sets of questions (morality, specialisation, anthropologization and mathematicization) that are both direct derivatives of the Modern episteme and problematic for sustainable development, and finally (iv) an application of the method to consider evidence for the emergence of a new episteme. Conclusions are also provided.     

Evaluating DSGE model forecasts of comovements

This paper develops and applies tools to assess multivariate aspects of Bayesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model forecasts and their ability to predict comovements among key macroeconomic variables. We construct posterior predictive checks to evaluate conditional and unconditional density forecasts, in addition to checks for root-mean-squared errors and event probabilities associated with these forecasts. The checks are implemented on a three-equation DSGE model as well as the Smets and Wouters (2007) model using real-time data. We find that the additional features incorporated into the Smets–Wouters model do not lead to a uniform improvement in the quality of density forecasts and prediction of comovements of output, inflation, and interest rates.     

A cross-cultural study of the persuasive effect of fear appeal messages in cigarette advertising: China and Canada

This exploratory study investigated the moderating influence of culture on the persuasive power of fear appeal advertisements differing on type of fear. The conceptual framework for the study was based on Rogers' Protection Motivation model and incorporated type of fear, physical and social, as an independent variable and culture as a moderating variable. An experiment was conducted on a sample of 173 Anglo-Canadian and 180 Chinese subjects. The findings revealed that the physical threat ads had a much greater effect on the Anglo subjects than on the Chinese. Most importantly, these ads brought about an attitude change for the Anglos, but not for the Chinese. For the social fear ads, contrary to predictions, only the Anglos reacted to the ads. They tended to score higher than the Chinese on attitude towards smoking as well as on behavioural intentions.     

The Retailer's Perspective on the Link Between Logistical Resources and Perceived Customer Loyalty to Manufacturer Brands

The objective of this study was to investigate the relationships between logistics and brand‐related resources, and assess their impact on the retailer's perceptions of customer loyalty to manufacturer brands. On the basis of theoretical underpinnings of the resource‐based view, this study explores the relationships among four main variables: (1) variety of collaborative logistics technologies shared between retailers and manufacturers, (2) manufacturer's logistics operations quality provided to retailers, (3) retailer's brand differentiation orientation, and (4) retailer's perceptions of customers loyalty to manufacturer brands. An online survey was conducted on 313 senior marketing and supply chain managers from retailer firms. The results of the structural equation analysis support a mediated relationship between logistical resources and perceived loyalty to manufacturer brands. The retailers believe that shared logistics technologies enable manufacturers and retailers to offer higher levels of availability and visibility of preferred brands to their end‐user customers. In turn, the end‐users become more confident with their decisions to repurchase the same brand offerings.