Empirical evidence of the existence of speculative bubbles in the prices of stocks traded on the São Paulo Stock Exchange

Speculative price bubbles are defined as a significant deviation between an asset's intrinsic value and its market value and in this paper it refers to stock values. Literature about the theme has noted the existence of bubbles in various types of markets and their respective assets. A great deal of effort has been directed toward identifying bubbles in stock price indices. However, few research endeavors focus on assets as the unit of analysis. Studies about stocks in Brazil have identified the presence of bubbles in IBOVESPA (São Paulo Stock Exchange Index). Given this context and assuming that the speculative bubbles are present in the Brazilian stock market, this research is focused on the following question: Is there evidence of the existence of speculative bubbles in stock prices traded on the São Paulo Stock Exchange? Econometric tests were performed on twenty-seven stocks, based upon their positions each semester, for the period between the first semesters of 1990 until the first semester of 2010. The nominal values of the selected stocks were adjusted for inflation by the IPCA (Brazilian Consumer Price Index). In order to identify the presence of bubbles, we applied the Johansen non-cointegration test and/or the Granger non-causality test between the intrinsic value, dividends and interest on equity capital, and the market value (semester closing price) of the stocks. The primary findings reveal a presence of bubbles in twenty of the twenty-seven stocks, at a 5% significance level. Of the seven stocks not showing evidence of bubbles, six are financial institutions. In five stocks the tests reveal Granger causality stemming from the market value toward the intrinsic value. The study findings are consistent and contribute with previous research in the literature and, are useful for investors, financial institutions, academics, government agents, and traders.     

COUNSELING AND MONITORING OF UNEMPLOYED WORKERS: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM A CONTROLLED SOCIAL EXPERIMENT*

We investigate the effect of counseling and monitoring on the individual transition rate to employment. We theoretically analyze these policies in a job search model with two search channels and endogenous search effort. In the empirical analysis we use unique administrative and survey data concerning a social experiment with full randomization and compliance. The results do not provide evidence that counseling and monitoring affect the exit rate to work. Monitoring causes a shift from informal to formal job search. We combine our empirical results with the results from our theoretical analysis and the existing empirical literature, to establish a comprehensive analysis of the effectiveness of these policies.     

The effects of business–university alliances on innovative output and financial performance: a study of publicly traded biotechnology companies

Companies in the biotechnology industry face major challenges in developing and commercializing new products. Focusing on publicly traded biotechnology firms that are not members of university incubators or research parks, this paper argues that the links these companies develop with universities can have beneficial effects on a company's operations. Analysis of 2457 alliances undertaken by 147 biotechnology firms shows that companies with university linkages have lower research and development (R&D) expenses while having higher levels of innovative output. However, the results do not support the proposition that companies with university linkages achieve higher financial performance than similar firms without such linkages.     

Regulation, Corporate Social Responsibility and Activism

This paper analyzes the interplay between firms' self-regulation (often denoted as corporate social responsibility) as opposed to the formal regulation of a negative externality. Firms respond to increasing activism in the market (conscious consumers that take into account the external effects of their purchase) by providing more socially responsible goods. However, because regulation is the outcome of a political process, an increase in activism might imply an inefficiently high externality level. This may happen when a majority of non-activist consumers collectively free-ride on conscious consumers. By determining a softer than optimal regulation, they benefit from the behavior of firms, yet they have access to cheaper (although less efficient) goods .     

Worker turnover at the firm level and crowding out of lower educated workers

This paper investigates whether employers exploit cyclical downturns to improve the average skill level of their work force. We use a unique dataset that contains information on workers, jobs as well as firm characteristics. Our findings are that at each job level mainly lower educated workers leave during downturns. Furthermore, at each level of job complexity, workers with a higher education are not more productive than lower educated workers. We find no evidence that higher educated workers crowd out lower educated workers during recessions.     

The role of corruption and risk aversion in entrepreneurial intentions

The literature on entrepreneurship has suggested that an individual’s entrepreneurial intention depends on three types of factor: personal characteristics, the individual’s expertise and professional background, and external factors. Our study investigates how corruption, an external factor, and risk aversion, a personal characteristic, may simultaneously affect individuals’ entrepreneurial intentions. With data on 76 203 individuals in 53 countries, our estimation results indicate that risk aversion decreases the individual’s probability of having an entrepreneurial intention by 6.67 percentage points. In addition, an increase in 1 SD in the perceived level of corruption in a country decreases the individual’s probability of having an entrepreneurial intention by 0.96 percentage points.     

On the level of cooperative behavior in a local-interaction model

We study local interaction within a population located on a connected graph. Subjects engage in several bilateral interactions during each round in a generalized Prisoners' Dilemma (PD). In each round of play one randomly selected player gets the possibility to update the action he plays in this PD. All individuals use the update rule Win Cooperate, Lose Defect, a multi-player variant of Tit-for-Tat. Theoretical results on the set of stable states of the associated dynamics are provided for the cases with and without rare mutations. Simulations provide insight into the probability distribution over these stable states. In both cases a rather high probability is assigned to stable states with a moderate level of cooperation implying that dominated strategies are used. Furthermore, the probability of reaching the stable state with Nash equilibrium play is small.     

Conflicts of interest and China's A-share underpricing

The extremely high A-share underpricing in China's primary market provides us with a very interesting area of empirical research. Previous studies on China's IPO underpricing have been suggestive, but inconclusive. A significant decline in A-share underpricing is found in 2003 relative to previous years (and much less than that recorded in the literature to date). We examine the validity of previous A-share underpricing models, reported in the literature, and find a statistically significant structural break in the data during 2003 when these models are specified. We further explore conflicts of interest in the Chinese IPO market and specify an alternative model to further examine this change in observed market behavior. Our results suggest that a contract with high underwriter's fee leads to less A-share underpricing. Our results also suggest that the asymmetric information hypothesis does not apply in the Chinese IPO market in 2003. Overpricing by the secondary market and the trading activity on the first trading day are the main functions of the A-share underpricing. This study has important implications such as guiding the Chinese government policy regarding the regulations of initial public offering.     

Entry into Insular Domains: A Longitudinal Study of Knowledge Structuration and Innovation in Biotechnology Firms

We focus on the firm's decision to enter insular technology domains and its effect on the impact that its subsequent innovation has on the field. Insular domains are technical domains that rely heavily on prior innovations within the same domain for subsequent innovations. We show that the returns to entering insular domains vary with the firm's depth and breadth of knowledge. By analysing data from 128 biotechnology firms over a 20‐year period, we find that the relationship between depth of technological capabilities and technology impact is nuanced: depth is necessary but not sufficient for high impact innovation. Firms whose knowledge is spread over disparate domains have negative returns from entering insular domains. The implications of these findings for theories of innovation and the discovery of entrepreneurial opportunities are discussed.