Forecasting volatility: A reality check based on option pricing, utility function, value-at-risk, and predictive likelihood

We analyze the predictive performance of various volatility models for stock returns. To compare their performance, we choose loss functions for which volatility estimation is of paramount importance. We deal with two economic loss functions (an option pricing function and an utility function) and two statistical loss functions (a goodness-of-fit measure for a value-at-risk (VaR) calculation and a predictive likelihood function). We implement the tests for superior predictive ability of White [Econometrica 68 (5) (2000) 1097] and Hansen [Hansen, P. R. (2001). An unbiased and powerful test for superior predictive ability. Brown University]. We find that, for option pricing, simple models like the Riskmetrics exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) or a simple moving average, which do not require estimation, perform as well as other more sophisticated specifications. For a utility-based loss function, an asymmetric quadratic GARCH seems to dominate, and this result is robust to different degrees of risk aversion. For a VaR-based loss function, a stochastic volatility model is preferred. Interestingly, the Riskmetrics EWMA model, proposed to calculate VaR, seems to be the worst performer. For the predictive likelihood-based loss function, modeling the conditional standard deviation instead of the variance seems to be a dominant modeling strategy.     

An empirical study of ethical predispositions

Using a two-part instrument consisting of eight vignettes and twenty character traits, the study sampled 141 employees of a mid-west financial firm regarding their predispositions to prefer utilitarian or formalist forms of ethical reasoning. In contrast with earlier studies, we found that these respondents did not prefer utilitarian reasoning. Several other hypotheses were tested involving the relationship between (1) people's preferences for certain types of solutions to issues and (2) the forms of reasoning they use to arrive at those solutions; the nature of the relationship between utilitarian and formalist categories; and the possibility of measuring ethical predispositions using different methods. F. Neil Brady is Professor of Public Management and Associate Director for the Center for the Study of Values in Organizations in the Marriott School of Management at Brigham Young University. He is the author of Ethical Managing: Rules and Resultsand has published numerous articles on business ethics, ethical theory, and moral reasoning.Gloria E. Wheeler is Associate Professor of Public Management and Associate Director of the Institute of Public Management at Brigham Young University. Her primary areas are research methodology and human resource management. She has extensive survey research experience in many substantive fields and has published articles in journals covering such diverse areas as taxation, teaching, marketing, and human behavior in organizations.     

The use of information technology tools in new product development phases: Analysis of effects on new product innovativeness, quality, and market performance

Extant research has largely ignored empirically examining how information technology (IT) affects new product effectiveness. Using the knowledge-based theory as a foundation, this study examines if, and how, particular IT tools used in the discovery, development, and commercialization phases of the new product development (NPD) process influence NPD effectiveness dimensions, namely, market performance, innovativeness, and quality of a new product. Based on data collected from NPD managers in the US and Canada, the findings indicate that specific IT tools contribute to various measures of new product effectiveness differently. Moreover, the results show the positive effect of these IT tools in different phases of the NPD process. This suggests that with regard to NPD, a decompositional approach that examines the role of IT within each phase of the NPD process is best. Based on these findings, the authors discuss theoretical and managerial implications of the study and suggest paths for future research. Managerially, some interesting results of our study are that decision support systems, file transfer protocols, and concept testing tools would significantly improve NPD effectiveness regardless of the phase they are used.     

Impact of AIDS on Family Composition,Welfare, and Investment: Evidence from Uganda*

Although availability of quantitative information on the extent of HIV/AIDS in Africa is improving, the socio‐economic implications of the epidemic remain poorly understood. This paper explores this issue for Uganda focusing on households who received foster children between 1992 and 2000, a phenomenon that affected more than 15% of households. The authors find that addition of a foster child resulted in significant reductions of per capita consumption, income, and household investment which were more pronounced for the poor. Initial disadvantages in foster children's access to education for this group were overcome in the course of UPE implementation, while new inequalities have emerged in access to health services. Foster children's ability to access services will thus be affected by the broader policy environment as well as programs more specifically targeted at this group.     

The Effect of Reimbursement on the Intensity of Hospital Services

We examine how hospital treatment intensity is affected by an exogenous change in average reimbursement for an admission. Theory predicts that treatment intensity would be most affected for highly profitable services but unaffected for unprofitable services. We use Medicare inpatient data from 11 states for 16 disease categories that vary in the generosity of reimbursement to test this prediction. Using the coefficients from quantile regressions, we calculate a difference-in-difference estimate of the effect of the Balanced Budget Act (BBA) of 1998, comparing the pre- and post-BBA change in treatment intensity at high Medicare share hospitals to low Medicare share hospitals. We find that not-for-profit hospitals cut treatment intensity at the 50th, 75th, and 95th quantiles only for generously reimbursed services. Intensity at the 25th percentile was unaffected, regardless of generosity. We did not measure a statistically significant response at for-profit or public hospitals to the BBA.     

Innovation, cycles and growth

The purpose of this paper is to present a model of growth with endogenous fluctuations. The main feature of our model is that it throws light on the relationships between long waves and business cycles in the economy. The driving forces in the model work in this way: endogenous R&D investment creates new cumulative knowledge. When this knowledge reaches a threshold H*, radical innovations occur which generate productivity growth via the substitution of old capital with new capital. These disruptive events appear recurrently, generating long waves and revitalizing the growth process. Short-term cycles in the model come from the interactions between these innovation-driven transformations and certain prey-predator mechanisms that involve the labor market. We find that our model presents excellent properties: the model generates endogenous cyclical growth as a disequilibrium process; persistent and irregular short cycles appear interwoven with the long waves; and there is a strong significant interaction between both kinds of fluctuations.     

Towards a comprehensive model of entry timing in the ICT industry: Direct and indirect effects

We propose and contrast a model that integrates the factors influencing entry timing and the way entry timing influences firm performance, using a sample of firms that carry out international activities from the Information and Communications Technology Industry (ICT) in Spain. We found that capabilities are the main factor influencing firm performance. We also demonstrate that entry timing plays a significant mediator role in this relationship. Furthermore, we found that the utility strategy, which combines efforts in costs and differentiation, is a basic factor that explains and reinforces sustainable competitive advantages for those firms that enter early into the market. Managers need to analyse the implications of entry timing at length. In this sense, managers should evaluate if they have a suitable configuration of capabilities for entering the market successfully. They should also try to consolidate first mover advantages (FMAs), developing hybrid strategies that combine low cost and differentiation.