Remarks on Engineering Economy Studies from the Viewpoint of Statistical Decision Theory

Lack of credit during periods of financial stress can reduce sales in an entire supply chain. To reduce the reliance on external credit, we introduce a new financing framework in which key supply chain stakeholders accept delayed payment for a pre-agreed portion of their product or service. By doing so throughout the supply chain, each stakeholder must self-finance only their in-house activities—but not the cost of purchased components and services because those are in turn financed by their suppliers. Intended to account for only a small fraction of sales, this framework is limited to supplying customers who do not qualify for external financing. The payments from these customers are distributed among the value chain stakeholders according to an agreed-upon policy. These additional sales would otherwise be lost for lack of consumer credit. This approach increases sales and profitability for the entire supply chain and is especially advantageous during credit crunches. In addition to describing this new financing framework, this article places it in the context of other financing arrangements, provides an example with cash flow and net present value calculations, and identifies implementation challenges and characteristics of supply chains that are good candidates.     

VALUING REAL OPTIONS: CAN RISK‐ADJUSTED DISCOUNTING BE MADE TO WORK?

This paper examines three alternative approaches to valuing real options: (1) the standard option pricing technique using "risk-neutral" probabilities; (2) the use of risk-adjusted discount rates; and (3) discounting certainty-equivalent values with a riskless discount rate. As suggested by the title, a question of particular interest is whether an approach based on risk-adjusted discount rates can be "made to work" for valuing options. The answer is yes. Indeed, the authors show that any of the three approaches will provide a correct valuation if properly employed.
Nevertheless, there are important differences in the information requirements associated with each of the three methods. Another important issue is the relative degree of difficulty in calculating the correct option value. When these two considerations are taken into account, the risk-neutral option pricing procedure generally proves to be the preferred method. It tends to be computationally more convenient—often much more convenient—and to require less information than either the risk-adjusted discounting or certainty-equivalent procedures.     

The Poverty of Politics: How Income Redistribution Hurts the Poor

In spite of the significant research literature identifying a tradeoff between income redistribution and economic growth, massive public programs have been implemented to help the poor by transferring income to them. Since Lyndon Johnson's war on poverty began in 1964, over 3.5 trillion dollars have been transferred. However, the possibility that everyone, including the poor, may in fact be made worse off by the transfer has largely been ignored. With a simple algebraic model, the authors demonstrate that, over time, both high and low-income groups are harmed by redistribution. In addition, social mobility, as well as political concerns with relative poverty and international income redistribution increases the damage to all income groups produced by redistribution.     

LIFE EXPECTANCY AND ECONOMIC WELFARE: THE EXAMPLE OF AFRICA IN THE 1990s

A formulation for incorporating Life expectancy information into empirical economic welfare calculations is presented. In an application analyzing the economic progress of the African continent during the 1990s due consideration of life expectancy factors substantially modifies the conclusions drawn from standard welfare calculations.     

INTRODUCTION: MINING HISTORY IN CONTEXT

This article introduces the theme and the articles in this special issue of the Australian Economic History Review on mining history. It puts the subject of the articles in the context of current changes in the global mining industry and notes the themes that may be explored in further research.