Analysis of the probability of deletion of S&P 500 companies: Survival analysis and neural networks approach

We examine the probability of deletion of a firm from the S&P 500 index due to a decision of the index committee because the firm did not satisfy the index committee criteria. We study the probability of deletion with survival analysis and neural networks methods. We document that deletion might be predictable, which is contrary to the findings of most studies that the market cannot predict the timing of a company deletion from the S&P 500 index. It might also be beneficial to know ahead of time which company might be deleted from an index, to supplement the arbitrage opportunities that exist already in the announcement-effective date event window.     

Belief adjustment: a double hurdle model and experimental evidence

Experimental Economics - We present an experiment where subjects sequentially receive signals about the true state of the world and need to form beliefs about which one is true, with payoffs...     

Remote data analysis,visualization and problem solving environment (PSE) based on wavelets in the geosciences

We discuss here the issues faced by earth scientists in analyzing and visualizing large datasets over a GRID-like setup from a client-server perspective. We approach this problem by using a remote, web-based visualization and data analysis framework, called WEB-IS, and by employing second-generation wavelets as a means for reducing the amount of data transferred and for extracting coherent features in complex geophysical flows and surface faulting patterns. As an example, we describe how onboard processors on satellites can function as a server for beaming down extracted information to the client computer on the ground, thus exemplifying WEB-IS as a viable middleware on a GRID network for geosciences.     

Macroeconomic Linkages and Regional Monetary Cooperation: Steps Ahead*

There is a growing appetite for economic cooperation in East Asia. Although the region has forums to facilitate this, economic cooperation has focussed largely on discussion of issues and policies ? cooperative action is confined to functional cooperation in finance. There is scope for further cooperation in strengthening markets and institutions, with a view to accelerating convergence and stability in the region and deepening shared preferences about policy objectives, including on monetary and exchange rate issues. Although monetary policy in East Asia is generally focussed on controlling inflation, differences remain in economic structure and preferences about policy trade‐offs, markets, and institutions.     

An invariance property of generalized classical linear estimators

When coefficients of endogenous variables are known, it is demonstrated that two-stage least squares and instrumental variable estimators are invariant to the form in which these variables enter computations, as raw data or estimates. Exclusion of instruments and knowledge of coefficients are related to identifiability testing, and a test presented.     

On the consistent specification of asset markets in macroeconomic models

The standard IS LM model has been criticized in recent years for an alleged neglect of portfolio balance and government financing constraints. Examination of the structure of the bond market implicit in a simple IS LM model shows that these criticisms are misdirected. We find that portfolio adding-up restrictions do not provide additional comparative static information in an IS LM context and may be harmful if imposed on the model. In addition, the IS LM framework is seen to be complete and logically consistent even in the absence of explicit financing constraints.     

Institutional sustainability: ‘community’ and waste management in Zimbabwe

This article addresses sustainability as a social process. In doing so it extends beyond the Brundtland notion of present and ‘future generations’ to grapple with the divergent social worlds in which the term is constructed by different actors. It is thus concerned with how learning can take place within development interventions to enable actors to build new norms and behaviours which cut across social divides. A framework has been developed to (i) explore and make explicit the assumptions held by stakeholders; (ii) develop an awareness of the nature and practices of accountability; (iii) build an understanding of cause and effect (attribution) in relation to action. It is suggested that structured participation in these processes can help to build inter-organizational and inter-associational learning which can provide the basis for new norms and behaviours stretching beyond the formal life of any intervention (institutional sustainability). The article draws on research from Zimbabwe, however it is suggested that the framework can have applicability in many situations.