Imputing continuous data under some non-Gaussian distributions

There has been a growing interest regarding generalized classes of distributions in statistical theory and practice because of their flexibility in model formation. Multiple imputation under such distributions that span a broader area in the symmetry–kurtosis plane appears to have the potential of better capturing real incomplete data trends. In this article, we impute continuous univariate data that exhibit varying characteristics under two well-known distributions, assess the extent to which this procedure works properly, make comparisons with normal imputation models in terms of commonly accepted bias and precision measures, and discuss possible generalizations to the multivariate case and to larger families of distributions.     

Success in soccer and economic performance: Evidence from beŞİktaŞ-Turkey

This paper investigates the connection between Turkish industrial production growth and the success of Beşiktaş, which is a popular Turkish soccer team. The empirical evidence provided in the paper suggests that industrial production growth tends to increase with the success of Beşiktaş in European cups. Moreover, if the winnings are in displacement, the increase in industrial production is higher than if the winnings are in the home field. On the other hand, findings on the effects of domestic games on industrial performance are not statistically significant. All the views expressed in this paper belong to the authors and do not represent the views of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey or its staff. Beşiktaş, established in 1903, is one of the most popular soccer teams in Turkey. Detailed information about the team can be reached at http://www.besiktasjk.com     

Understanding interstate trade patterns

This paper models and estimates bilateral trade patterns of U.S. states in a CES framework and identifies the elasticity of substitution across goods, the elasticities of substitution across varieties of each good, and the good-specific elasticities of distance by using markup values obtained from the production side. Compared to the international trade literature, the elasticity of substitution estimates are lower across both goods and varieties, while the elasticity of distance estimates are higher. Although home-bias effects at the state level are significant, there is evidence for decreasing effects over time.     

Emerging market business cycles: Learning about the trend

Emerging market business cycles feature a higher variability of consumption relative to output and a strongly countercyclical trade balance. An equilibrium business cycle model in which agents learn to distinguish between the permanent and transitory components of total factor productivity shocks using the Kalman filter accounts for these features. Calibrated to Mexico, the model accounts for the behavior of consumption and the trade balance for a wide range of variability and persistence of permanent shocks relative to transitory shocks. Estimation for Mexico and Canada suggests more severe informational frictions in emerging markets than in developed economies.     

Geographical dispersion of consumer search behaviour

This article investigates whether consumer search behaviour differs across zip codes within the U.S. As an application, daily gasoline price data covering virtually all gas stations within the U.S. are employed to estimate the distribution of search costs in each zip code. The results show that there are significant differences across zip codes regarding the expected number of searches achieved before consumers purchase gasoline. In order to have a systematic explanation, such differences are further connected to geographic, demographic, and economic conditions of the zip codes in a secondary analysis. The corresponding results imply several strategies for gas stations in order to maximize profits/markups; suggestions follow for policy makers and regulators to reduce redistributive effects of information barriers across locations.     

Risk Management Strategies in Transportation Capacity Decisions: An Analytical Approach

In recent years, access to freight transportation capacity has become a constant issue in the minds of logistics managers due to capacity shortages. In a buyer–seller relationship, reliable, timely, and cost‐effective access to transportation is critical to the success of such partnerships. Given this, guaranteed capacity contracts with third‐party logistics providers (3PLs) may be appealing to shippers to increase their access to capacity and respond effectively to customer requirements. With this new opportunity, 3PLs must focus on approaches that can assist them in analyzing their options as they promise guaranteed capacity to shippers when faced with uncertain demand and related risks in transportation. In this paper, we analytically analyze three capacity‐based risk mitigation strategies and the mixed use of these individual strategies using industry‐based data to provide insights on which strategy is preferable to the 3PL and under what conditions. We posit that the selection of a strategy is contingent on several conditions faced by both the shipper and the carrier. Although our approach is analytical in nature, it has a high degree of practical utility in that a 3PL can utilize our decision models to effectively analyze and visualize the trade‐offs between the different strategies by considering appropriate cost and demand data.     

Identifying the Liquidity Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks for a Small Open Economy: Turkey

This paper proposes a new liquidity measure for a small open economy. The new measure includes the net liquidity provided to the system by a central bank after accounting for the central bank’s involvement in the foreign exchange market. Empirical evidence gathered from Turkey suggests that a positive innovation in liquidity increases output temporarily and that its effect on prices, exchange rate and money are permanently higher.     

Comparing Alternative Service Quality Scales: An Investigation Using Confirmatory Factor Analysis in a Health Care Setting

Despite the availability of several domain-specific instruments and its obvious drawbacks, it is interesting that the SERVQUAL scale is still used in health care settings. For this reason, the main aim of this study was to compare two different service quality scales in a health care setting. We compared the fit of the SERVQUAL model with a domain-specific model through confirmatory factor analysis using AMOS. The results showed that the domain-specific scale was superior to SERVQUAL within the context of a health care environment. We believe that using/modifying a generalized scale is not a good approach when we have domain-specific alternatives available.     

Government consumption,government debt and economic growth

This paper compares the effects of government consumption and government debt on economic growth using data from 83 countries, including both developed and developing markets, over the period from 1960 to 2014. Linear regressions reveal that the negative effects of government consumption are relatively higher than the negative effects of government debt. A nonlinear investigation further suggests that the restrictions on government expenditure to prevent negative growth are more important for countries with lower trade openness, lower inflation, or greater financial depth, whereas the restrictions on government debt are shown to be more important for countries with higher trade openness, lower inflation or greater financial depth.     

The regional trade dynamics of Turkey: a panel data gravity model

This paper analyzes the Turkish export and import flows with regard to regional clusters (RCs) and bilateral trade costs (BTCs) by using a panel data gravity model. We study the role of RCs and BTCs in two complementary parts: in the first part, we use an unbalanced panel data for 180 countries over the period 1960–2012, compiled from the DOTS database. We extend these estimations by running the data at four different time intervals, each representing different economic or political regimes in Turkey. In the second part, we repeat the same exercise at sectoral level for 176 countries over the period 1994–2010, using the BACI database. Aggregate estimates show that the gravity model is very effective in explaining the export and import flows of Turkey and that all close-by regions, including EU27, have a significant impact on trade flows of Turkey. We also find that the EU Customs Union has a negative effect on Turkish exports and a positive effect on imports. Estimates at selected time intervals reinforce aggregate estimates and sectoral level analyses indicate that while some regions contribute positively in all or the majority of sectors, others contribute negatively or produce mixed results.