产业结构升级背景下流动人口就业结构调整研究——以上海市为例

1990年以来,上海市产业结构战略性调整成果初显。随着产业结构的进一步升级,流动人口就业行业、职业分布相对集中,二、三产业就业人口中以低层次就业为主等问题日益突出。本文在分析上海市产业结构升级对流动人口就业影响的基础上,针对目前流动人口文化素质水平与产业结构升级的人才需求不匹配、就业结构制约产业升级以及劳动力市场不完善的问题提出了积极的应对策略。     

政府在香港发展中的角色与作用

香港殖民地政府将1949年后的香港经济成长和社会发展奇迹解释为政府有效施政的结果.本文表明,港英政府在很长一段时期都没有清晰的社会政策和产业政策,公共支出亦缺乏明确的政策原则和取向.香港经济的自由放任、积极不干预性质都只是政府被动施政的结果,跨境加工贸易体系的发展主要源于外部因素的推动.到20世纪80年代,港英政府实施了取消金融市场管制的消极产业政策,导致了香港经济金融房地产化.由于缺乏积极的工业政策,香港的跨境加工贸易体系很难转型,最终只会剩下金融房地产化的产业和日趋单一的经济结构.     

East—West joint ventures and buyback contracts

Contractual joint ventures (CJVs) and the buyback form of countertrade are popular methods that Socialist countries use to attract foreign investment. In this paper we explore some reasons why this is so and also explain two predominant characteristics of these contracts: the existence of sharing rules and minimum standard requirements on inputs. The model stresses the incentive problems involved when a (Socialist) host country, which does not allow foreign direct investment, uses a CJV to obtain the fruits of some knowledge-based production process from a multinational enterprise.     

How FTAs Affect Income Levels of Member Countries

The purpose of this paper is to analyse whether FTAs cause the income levels of member economies to converge or diverge. Although existing studies predict the possibility of convergence among FTA members to a certain degree, they fail to provide definitive evidence. By using the concept of accelerating convergence, this study aims to estimate the pure convergence effects of FTAs, separate from the conventional notion of income convergence, so‐called β‐convergence. The neoclassical model of economic growth has been extended to incorporate varying steady states for an open‐economy framework. Applying the system GMM method to a dynamic panel of data consisting of major FTAs – comprising the European Union, NAFTA, Mercosur and AFTA, and encompassing the cases of launching an FTA, expanding membership or deepening FTA integration – we find considerable evidence for the income convergence effect of FTAs.     

Risk measures for derivatives with Markov-modulated pure jump processes

We consider a regime-switching HJB approach to evaluate risk measures for derivative securities when the price process of the underlying risky asset is governed by the exponential of a pure jump process with drift and a Markov switching compensator. The pure jump process is flexible enough to incorporate both the infinite, (small), jump activity and the finite, (large), jump activity. The drift and the compensator of the pure jump process switch over time according to the state of a continuous-time hidden Markov chain representing the state of an economy. The market described by our model is incomplete. Hence, there is more than one pricing kernel and there is no perfect hedging strategy for a derivative security. We derive the regime-switching HJB equations for coherent risk measures for the unhedged position of derivative securities, including standard European options and barrier options. For measuring risk inherent in the unhedged option position, we first need to mark the position into the market by valuing the option. We employ a well-known tool in actuarial science, namely, the Esscher transform to select a pricing kernel for valuation of an option and to generate a family of real-world probabilities for risk measurement. We also derive the regime-switching HJB-variational inequalities for coherent risk measures for American-style options.     

老兵消逝

随着省广与昌荣的上市,本土广告公司开始尝试资本运营。固然,资本之间的竞争可以起到“滚雪球“的效应,但也隐藏着许多弊端。近日,国外两家负有盛名的广告公司收到了自己的”悼词”。它们的关张．都与公司的资本运作不无关系,比如创始人出售公司后套现离去,对员工情绪产生负面影响,等等。而金融风暴的存在,则加剧了这种现象发生的速度。     

美国货币政策溢出效应、中国资产价格波动与资本账户管理

本文以2016年美国加息事件为背景,研究美国货币政策对中国资本流动、资产价格和宏观经济的影响。基于小国开放动态随机一般均衡模型,本文梳理了美国货币政策溢出效应的具体传导渠道,发现国外利率升高后,资本流动具有外部性,导致国内资产价格下跌,其通过金融加速器进一步使国内投资下降、资产价格进一步下跌,从而使得国内资产预期回报进一步下降,加剧资本外流。基于政策和福利分析,本文发现资本账户管理可以有效缓解国外利率冲击对经济波动的影响,同时会提高货币政策的独立性,但也会影响国民财富的最优配置。因此,最优的资本账户管理应同时兼顾宏观审慎和效率两个方面。     

What determines mutual fund trading in foreign stocks?

We examine the portfolio rebalancing, measured by the equity churn rate, of mutual funds from 29 countries based on annual stockholdings over the 1999–2006 period. We find that funds more often trade the stocks of companies located in countries with higher degree of information asymmetry and are less familiar to fund managers, after we control for the effects of stock market development and investor protection. Consistent with the behavioral bias, fund managers more often rebalance stocks in foreign markets that perform well. This bias is exacerbated when fund managers are less familiar with and less informed about those markets.