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91.
Martin Weiss Author Vitae Martin Junginger Author VitaeAuthor Vitae Kornelis Blok Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2010,77(3):411-8581
Transitioning towards a sustainable energy system requires the large-scale introduction of novel energy demand and supply technologies. Such novel technologies are often expensive at the point of their market introduction but eventually become cheaper due to technological learning. In order to quantify potentials for price and cost decline, the experience curve approach has been extensively applied to renewable and non-renewable energy supply technologies. However, its application to energy demand technologies is far less frequent. Here, we provide the first comprehensive review of experience curve analyses for energy demand technologies. We find a widespread trend towards declining prices and costs at an average learning rate of 18 ± 9%. This finding is consistent with the results for energy supply technologies and for manufacturing in general. Learning rates for individual energy demand technologies are symmetrically distributed around the arithmetic mean of the data sample. Absolute variation of learning rates within individual technology clusters of 7 ± 4%-points and between technology clusters of 7 ± 5%-points both contribute to the overall variability of learning rates. Our results show that technological learning is as important for energy demand technologies as it is for energy supply technologies. Applying the experience curve approach to forecast technology costs involves, however, unresolved uncertainties, as we demonstrate in a case study for the micro-cogeneration technology. 相似文献
92.
Martin GrenAuthor Vitae 《Annals of Tourism Research》2012,39(1):155-170
Given that tourism is an “earthly business”, why is it that the Earth rarely explicitly appears in tourism studies and tourism theory? In an attempt to grapple with this paradox, this paper seeks to contribute to a conceptual re-cognition of the Earth in tourism theory by probing some theoretical obstacles and possibilities. The paper demonstrates how the Earth has been conceptually erased in tourism theory by a privileging of the mapping of tourism and tourists onto the reference plane of the social. As an alternative the paper seeks to provide a geo-philosophically informed conceptualisation of the Earth as a primary plane of reference of which tourism is a particular form of de/re-territorialisation. 相似文献
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Jared P. Keller Author Vitae Author Vitae Yuan Lin Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2010,77(7):1014-1036
Dismantling dark networks remains a critical goal for the peace and security of our society. Terrorist networks are the most prominent instantiation of dark networks, and they are alive and well. Attempts to preemptively disrupt these networks and their activities have met with both success and failure. In this paper, we examine the impacts of four common strategies for dismantling terrorist networks. The four strategies are: leader-focused, grassroots, geographic, and random. Each of these strategies has associated pros and cons, and each has different impacts on the structure and capabilities of a terrorist network. Employing a computational experimentation methodology, we simulate a terrorist network and test the effects of each strategy on the resiliency of that network. In addition, we test scenarios in which the terrorist network has (or does not have) information about an impending attack. Our work takes a structural perspective to the challenge of addressing terrorist networks. Specifically, we show how various strategies impact the structure of the network in terms of its resiliency and capacity to carry out future attacks. This paper also provides a valuable overview of how to use agent-based modeling for the study of complex problems in the terrorism, conflict studies, and security study domains. 相似文献
94.
Letizia Mortara Simon J. FordAuthor VitaeManuel JaegerAuthor Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2013
Idea Competitions (ICs) are becoming a popular mechanism chosen by firms to perform Open Innovation. They are a way to engage with external sources of knowledge such as individual entrepreneurs and small firms who are asked to submit ideas and compete for a prize. However, little is known about the success of ICs as acquisition mechanisms. The researchers conducted interviews in five multinational companies to evaluate the effects of using ICs as an acquisition mechanism. Although still preliminary, the results of this study show that the success of ICs as an acquisition mechanism remains uncertain because their output (i.e. the number of ideas acquired) is often low compared to the input (i.e. the number of ideas submitted) and effort required to run them (e.g. to vet ideas). Across the cases observed, ICs appear to be more successful at identifying and acquiring early-stage ideas, particularly those outside the current business focus. The study shows that ICs deliver other functional benefits such as improved intelligence and public relations and that these need to be considered as part of the evaluation of the IC's success. The paper concludes by discussing the conditions in which ICs are implemented and the implications for Open Innovation theory. 相似文献
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Yu Sang Chang Author Vitae Seung Jin Baek Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2010,77(5):712-729
The evolution of civilization appears to have primarily resulted from continuous improvement made possible by technological advances. A group of social evolutionists and economists have identified, among others, energy, transport, as well as information and communication to be the three most influential technologies. On the other hand, a number of eminent scholars have cited several forces, natural, physiological, technological, as well as environmental which can place a limit on on-going improvement.The purpose of this paper is to empirically explore the continuous improvement process as well as the limit placed on these three technologies. Using the framework of both connected and disconnected multiple technology S-curves and X-factor, historical improvement data on these three elements have been analyzed. The results of our analysis indicate that improvement in general has continued without limit mainly due to a series of emerging new technologies. These emerging technologies can be either connected or disconnected from the existing mature technologies. Our preliminary analysis shows that much of the past improvement comes from new technologies that on first serious application appear to be substantially superior from earlier technologies. In addition, enormous continuous improvement, which has accompanied both connected and disconnected new technologies appear to have played the critical role in sustaining the evolution of civilization. The paper discusses a number of policy implications and suggests topics for future research. 相似文献
96.
Dharm Kapletia Author Vitae 《Industrial Marketing Management》2010,39(4):582-592
This article explores the acquisition of business solutions in complex systems environments, through insights drawn from current literature and a study of the UK defense industry. We seek to counter-balance the dominance of literature focusing on the supplier perspective, as well as provide richer distinctions between different kinds of system suppliers involved in providing business solutions. We do this through the detailed examination of customer support offerings and business relationships that exist at the system customer-supplier interface. Our findings provide a map of solutions models that exist in the UK defense context. These include: (1) product system support, (2) life cycle product system support, (3) functional system support, and (4) enterprise system support. Using these models, we highlight the continued relevance of a product orientation and the challenges involved in adopting a true customer orientation when delivering business solutions. System suppliers seeking to reposition from the supply of product system support towards more integrated and customer-oriented forms of support require a significant organizational step change. 相似文献
97.
Debbie Harrison Author Vitae Hans Kjellberg Author Vitae 《Industrial Marketing Management》2010,39(5):784-792
This paper takes an empirical starting point in a claim that Biacore, a pioneering Swedish producer of affinity biosensors, was “in the enviable position of creating its own market” (Abelin, 1997). An in-depth case study traces how Biacore undertook segmentation activities while shaping the market for its new product technology, affinity biosensors. This involved stabilising the modes of exchange with customers, the product and the identity of the company. The efforts of Biacore highlight a constructive dimension of market segmentation that hitherto has received little attention. Rather than a process of describing, deciding and taking action, Biacore engaged in the gradual construction of market segments through an interactive and iterative process involving close collaboration with early users. Simultaneously, the market for the new technology gained shaped. Thus, the paper reports a ‘markets from networks’ story illustrating how the practice of segmenting a market may have consequences for that market. 相似文献
98.
Wendy Bodwell Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2010,77(2):193-202
In this article we propose scenario planning as a tool for fostering organizational ambidexterity. The concept of organizational ambidexterity continues to gain attention, however, clear methods for developing this organizational ability are generally not offered. We therefore describe organizational ambidexterity and situate it in the general strategy literature. Key characteristics of organizational ambidexterity are provided, and the logical link to scenario planning is made. As the concept of organizational ambidexterity is relatively novel, our proposal highlights the use of scenario planning as a potential tool for developing this organizational “skill”, and clear next steps are described to examine our proposal as well as leverage the concept of organizational ambidexterity beyond that of a simple metaphor. 相似文献
99.
Paulo N. Figueiredo Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2010,77(7):1090-1108
Most of the studies that describe the building of innovation capability in emerging and developing economies have focused on the ways in which latecomer firms develop continuously towards advanced capability levels along existing technological trajectories, particularly for the assembled products industries, especially in Asia. A slightly different approach is adopted herein by focusing on pathways of discontinuous capability building of firms in natural resource-processing industries. By drawing on evidence from a variety of case studies taken from 13 forestry, pulp, and paper firms in Brazil in the period 1950-2007, it was found that: (1) in contrast with the majority of case studies reported in the literature, the pathways followed by firms in their accumulation of innovation capability involved a qualitative departure from the established technological trajectory at an early stage in the development of their capability; (2) the pathways of firms along the new technological trajectories were nevertheless characterised by a high degree of variability (from intermediate to world leading innovators) in terms of the levels and speeds of the accumulation of innovation capability; (3) firms that have attained progressively higher levels of innovative performance have more rapidly developed a combination of internal and external research-based arrangements in order to undertake increasingly complex, but firm-centred innovation efforts. This paper sheds some light on some of the discussions that relate to the role of natural resources in the patterns of industrial progress and growth in those countries endowed with particular natural resource-based industries. It also provides a methodological contribution to the study of the long-term innovation strategies that make use of the dynamics of capability building, especially within natural resource-processing industries. 相似文献
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