Demographics and the long-horizon returns of dividend-yield strategies

This paper investigates the relationship between demographic changes and the long-run returns of dividend-yield investment strategies. We hypothesise that in a world where components of wealth are mentally treated as being non-fungible, the preference for high dividend-paying stocks by older investors means that the excess returns of high dividend-yielding stocks, relative to other stocks, should be positively related to demographic clientele variation. In particular, we find that, consistent with the behavioural life-cycle hypothesis, long-run returns of dividend-yield investment strategies are positively driven by changes in the proportion of the older population. Our results are robust when controlled for the Fama–French factors, inflation rate, consumption growth rate, interest rates, tax clienteles, time trend and alternative definitions of both dividend-yield strategies and demographic variation.     

组织变革认知、转业辅导、生涯发展与人力运用关系之研究——以台糖公司为例

为适应多元环境的变化,公营事业转民营已成为一种市场趋势,而变革亦成为公营企业面对民营化情势的一种手段。当组织进行变革时,除应顾及组织业务发展外,亦应提供转业辅导,协助员工重新规划生涯发展方向,以期能有效运用或开发现有人力素质。本研究以台糖公司参加第二专长转业进修班的员工为研究对象,探讨组织变革认知、转业辅导、员工生涯发展与人力运用之间的关系。共回收有效问卷93份,研究结果发现：1．组织变革认知之“改隶成效”对转业辅导之“新知能学习”有显著影响;组织变革认知之“裁撤标准建立”对转业辅导之“训练课程设计”有显著影响。2．转业辅导之“新知能学习”对员工生涯发展之“生涯路径规划”和“生涯信息提供”有显著影响。3．转业辅导之“新知能学习”对人力运用之“人力重置与报偿”有显著影响;转业辅导之“参训动机”对人力运用之“修正绩效评估方案”有显著影响。4．组织变革认知之“裁撤标准建立”对员工生涯发展之“生涯路径规划”与“生涯信息提供”有显著影响。5．组织变革认知之“改隶成效”对人力运用之“人力重置与报偿”有显著影响;组织变革认知之“裁撤标准建立”对人力运用之“修正绩效评估方案”有显著影响。     

Do Institutionalized Traditions Matter During Crisis? Employee Downsizing in Korean Manufacturing Organizations

This study examines the downfall of the permanent employment tradition in South Korean manufacturing organizations in the aftermath of the 1997 East Asian economic crisis. We explore whether organizations abandon their traditional institutionalized practices under discontinuous environmental change or despite the change continue these time‐honoured practices. We examine both the organizational factors that inhibit lay‐offs and performance indicators that trigger organizations to re‐evaluate their lifetime employment practices under drastic environmental upheaval. We test our hypotheses on 574 Korean manufacturing organizations and find that under discontinuous change: (1) economic and institutional factors simultaneously apply opposite forces on organizational actions; (2) organizational factors such as poor performance on productivity and export create a need for headcount reductions while factors such as size, domestic ownership, government support, and unionization create social and institutional pressures that inhibit downsizing; and (3) prior experience with downsizing moderates the relationship between institutional factors and further downsizing.     

Sole sourcing in EOQ models with Binomial yield

We develop two EOQ-based inventory models in which an inventory manager must determine the order size as well as the supply reliability level in the presence of uncertainty in the quality and/or quantity of supply. The number of acceptable units in the order is captured by the Binomial yield model, and reliability is increased both by increasing the order setup cost and by increasing the unit price. For each developed model, we present an equation of which a solution is the optimal reliability level and a closed form solution for the optimal order size given the optimal reliability level. We then provide a comparison of the two models.     

Expectations Formation and Business Cycle Fluctuations: An Empirical Analysis of Actual and Expected Output in UK Manufacturing, 1975–1996

Direct measures of expectations, derived from survey data, are used in a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model of actual and expected output in eight industries in the UK manufacturing sector. No evidence is found with which to reject rationality in the derived expectations series when measurement error is appropriately taken into account. The VAR analysis illustrates the importance of intersectoral interactions and business confidence in explaining the time profile of industrial outputs, examines the mechanisms by which shocks are propagated across sectors and over time and investigates the relative importance of sectoral and aggregate shocks of different types.