Estimation of Poverty Transition Matrices with Noisy Data

This paper investigates measurement error biases in estimated poverty transition matrices. We compare transition matrices based on survey expenditure data to transition matrices based on measurement‐error‐free simulated expenditure. The simulation model uses estimates that correct for measurement error in expenditure. We find that time‐varying measurement error in expenditure data magnifies economic mobility. Roughly 45% of households initially in poverty at time t ? 1 are found to be out of poverty at time t using data from the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study. When measurement error is removed, this drops to between 26 and 31% of households initially in poverty. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump

Appropriate real‐time forecasting models for the US retail price of gasoline yield substantial reductions in the mean‐squared prediction error (MSPE) at horizons up to 2 years as well as substantial increases in directional accuracy. Even greater MSPE reductions are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most successful forecasting models. Pooled forecasts have lower MSPE than the US Energy Information Administration gasoline price forecasts and the gasoline price expectations in the Michigan Survey of Consumers. We also show that as much as 39% of the decline in gas prices between June and December 2014 was predictable. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Impact of Gender Similarity on Employee Satisfaction at Work: A Review and Re‐Evaluation*

abstract We used data from the British 1998 Workplace Employee Relations Survey (WERS98) to examine key unanswered questions about the impact of gender similarity on employee satisfaction at work. The study sample consisted of 11,848 men and 11,278 women from over 1700 workplaces across Britain. In line with gender‐specific compositional arguments, the effects of gender similarity were found to be asymmetrical for men and women, with similarity tending to have a greater positive impact on men than on women. The effects involved were primarily linear in nature. Net of the potentially confounding influence of other factors, they were also found to be quite weak, weaker than has commonly been suggested in the literature.     

Dynamic and non-neutral productivity effects of foreign ownership: A nonparametric approach

This paper studies two novel productivity characteristics of foreign acquisition on high-tech manufacturing firms: the dynamic and the non-Hicks-neutral effects. A dynamic productivity effect of foreign ownership arises when adoption of foreign technology and management practices takes time to fully realize. Furthermore, these dynamic adjustments may be capital or labor augmenting as adoption of advanced production technologies tends to have non-neutral productivity implications in developed countries. We propose and implement an econometric framework to estimate both effects using firm-level data from China's manufacturing sector. Our framework extends a nonparametric productivity framework, in which identification is achieved using a firm's first-order conditions and timing assumptions. We find strong evidence of dynamic and non-neutral effects from foreign ownership, with significant differences across investment sources. Investment from OECD sources is found to provide a long-term productivity boost for all but the largest recipients, while that from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan does not raise performance. These findings have implications for China's declining labor share and for the rising domestic value-added content of its high-tech exports.     

Social norms, information, and trust among strangers: theory and evidence

Can a social norm of trust and reciprocity emerge among strangers? We investigate this question by examining behavior in an experiment where subjects repeatedly play a two-player binary “trust” game. Players are randomly and anonymously paired with one another in each period. The main questions addressed are whether a social norm of trust and reciprocity emerges under the most extreme information restriction (anonymous community-wide enforcement) or whether trust and reciprocity require additional, individual-specific information about a player’s past history of play and whether that information must be provided freely or at some cost. In the absence of such reputational information, we find that a social norm of trust and reciprocity is difficult to sustain. The provision of reputational information on past individual decisions significantly increases trust and reciprocity, with longer histories yielding the best outcomes. Importantly, we find that making reputational information available at a small cost may also lead to a significant improvement in trust and reciprocity, despite the fact that most subjects do not choose to purchase this information.     

Is per capita real GDP stationary in five southeastern European countries? Fourier unit root test

This study uses the newly developed Fourier unit root test advanced by Enders and Lee (2004, 2009) to investigate the time-series properties of real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for five Southeastern European countries for the period from 1969 to 2009. The empirical results from several conventional unit root tests indicate that the per capita real GDP for all of the countries studied are non-stationary; however, when Enders and Lee (2004, 2009) Fourier unit root tests are conducted, one rejects the unit root hypothesis of real GDP per capita in all countries under study. These results have important policy implications for these five Southeastern European countries under study.     

GMM and 2SLS estimation of mixed regressive,spatial autoregressive models

The GMM method and the classical 2SLS method are considered for the estimation of mixed regressive, spatial autoregressive models. These methods have computational advantage over the conventional maximum likelihood method. The proposed GMM estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. Within certain classes of GMM estimators, best ones are derived. The proposed GMM estimators improve upon the 2SLS estimators and are applicable even if all regressors are irrelevant. A best GMM estimator may have the same limiting distribution as the ML estimator (with normal disturbances).     

Identification and estimation of econometric models with group interactions,contextual factors and fixed effects

This paper considers identification and estimation of structural interaction effects in a social interaction model. The model allows unobservables in the group structure, which may be correlated with included regressors. We show that both the endogenous and exogenous interaction effects can be identified if there are sufficient variations in group sizes. We consider the estimation of the model by the conditional maximum likelihood and instrumental variables methods. For the case with large group sizes, the possible identification can be weak in the sense that the estimates converge in distribution at low rates.     

Endogeneity in quantile regression models: A control function approach

This paper considers a linear triangular simultaneous equations model with conditional quantile restrictions. The paper adjusts for endogeneity by adopting a control function approach and presents a simple two-step estimator that exploits the partially linear structure of the model. The first step consists of estimation of the residuals of the reduced-form equation for the endogenous explanatory variable. The second step is series estimation of the primary equation with the reduced-form residual included nonparametrically as an additional explanatory variable. This paper imposes no functional form restrictions on the stochastic relationship between the reduced-form residual and the disturbance term in the primary equation conditional on observable explanatory variables. The paper presents regularity conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality of the two-step estimator. In addition, the paper provides some discussions on related estimation methods in the literature.     

Boardroom Strategizing in Professional Associations: Processual and Institutional Perspectives*

abstract This study examines strategic decision‐making at the boardroom level of two non‐profit professional associations, penetrating directors' strategic orientations, discourse and decisions in their holistic context. In comparison with the predominantly survey and interview based literature on board level strategy behaviour, this study employs a longitudinal complete member researcher, participant observer methodology. Its findings are analysed from an institutional theory perspective and reveal selective championing of strategies by directors, the evaluation of strategic proposals and progress in predominantly financial resource/outcome terms, and directors' attention to navigating strategic initiatives through organizational politics. Also revealed are private sector philosophies imported into the non‐profit boardroom, the predominantly ceremonial role of formal strategic plans, and an informally enacted strategic discourse. This study offers a unique insider view of strategizing at the highest organizational level.