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61.
This paper estimates Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) models, both spatial and non-spatial (univariate and multivariate),
for the twenty largest states of the US economy, using quarterly data over the period 1976:Q1–1994:Q4; and then forecasts
one-to-four quarters-ahead real house price growth over the out-of-sample horizon of 1995:Q1–2006:Q4. The forecasts are evaluated
by comparing them with those from an unrestricted classical Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and the corresponding univariate
variant of the same. Finally, the models that produce the minimum average Root Mean Square Errors (RMSEs), are used to predict
the downturns in the real house price growth over the recent period of 2007:Q1–2008:Q1. The results show that the BVARs, in
whatever form they might be, are the best performing models in 19 of the 20 states. Moreover, these models do a fair job in
predicting the downturn in 18 of the 19 states. 相似文献
62.
This paper provides an empirical analysis of the impact of ESA 2010 on EU member states, looking at countries both individually and as a whole and analysing the global impact of the adjustments and the partial impacts of each category. Changing the system of national accounts has introduced conceptual and methodological changes, but there has not been any significant variation in the convergence/divergence between government financial statistics and budgetary accounting in reporting deficits. The effect on the deficits reported by individual member states was quite marked however. 相似文献
63.
ABSTRACTUnderstanding the antecedents and implications of “service convenience” has acquired added importance with consumers' growing desire for ease during product or service exchange. Although the effects of service convenience, as a first-order construct, on post-purchase behavior have been studied in different business contexts, not much has been done in the case of a second-order construct which has been attempted here. The present study seeks to examine the mediating role of consumers' satisfaction as well as the moderating role of organizational and consumer personal factors that have not been sufficiently explored in the marketing literature. Structural equation analysis is adopted to test the hypothesized relationships using responses from 424 consumers who have purchased health insurance from six leading insurers in India. The findings validated that the service convenience affects consumer satisfaction, which, in turn, plays both a direct and mediating role in influencing consumers' repurchase intention. However, the role of organizational and consumer personal factors as moderators between service convenience and consumers' satisfaction could only be established indirectly through post-hoc analysis, which calls for further research. The results have important implications for planning, designing, and managing the health insurance business. 相似文献
64.
Dilip K. Das 《Global Economic Review》2013,42(3):363-378
Abstract The biennial Ministerial Conferences are the most important event of the WTO regime. The Hong Kong Ministerial Conference was the sixth biennial conference of the WTO, which aimed at a low-level equilibrium and achieved it. While it successfully eschewed another Cancún-like disappointing failure, the Hong Kong Ministerial did not achieve much of substance. If success is defined as not failing, the Hong Kong Ministerial Conference could be adjudged a success. Few bold decisions were attempted and important outstanding decisions were put off for the future. Liberalization of multilateral trade in agriculture was the most important as well as the most contentious issue in Hong Kong. A good number of significant secondary areas were also under negotiations. Core modalities that were to be determined on these issues in Hong Kong were not. A reasonably successful Hong Kong Ministerial Conference would have helped in advancing the Doha Round, which in turn would have meant welfare gains to the global economy, and its different regions and sub-regions. This opportunity was evidently missed. 相似文献
65.
Praveen K. Das 《Managerial and Decision Economics》2011,32(7):425-437
This paper examines the influence of geographical proximity on mutual fund proxy voting decisions. Using mutual fund proxy voting data for the sample period July 1, 2003 to June 30, 2004, we find that fund managers vote more in favor of management of locally headquartered firms. The results are strong for proposals related to executive compensation, anti‐takeover provisions, social and political issues. We provide evidence to show that bias in proxy voting is not being driven by informational advantage; voting bias is prevalent in small as well as large size companies. Additionally, the voting pattern suggests that geographical proximity does not facilitate in better corporate monitoring as revealed in their voting decisions. We find that local fund managers vote more favorably in those proposals which do not increase shareholders' wealth and rights. Our results suggest that familiarity and social interaction between fund managers and firm executives located in the same geographic area might explain the local bias in mutual fund proxy voting behavior. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
66.
Sanmay Das 《Quantitative Finance》2013,13(2):169-180
This paper develops a model of a learning market-maker by extending the Glosten–Milgrom model of dealer markets. The market-maker tracks the changing true value of a stock in settings with informed traders (with noisy signals) and liquidity traders, and sets bid and ask prices based on its estimate of the true value. We empirically evaluate the performance of the market-maker in markets with different parameter values to demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm, and then use the algorithm to derive properties of price processes in simulated markets. When the true value is governed by a jump process, there is a two regime behaviour marked by significant heterogeneity of information and large spreads immediately following a price jump, which is quickly resolved by the market-maker, leading to a rapid return to homogeneity of information and small spreads. We also discuss the similarities and differences between our model and real stock market data in terms of distributional and time series properties of returns. 相似文献
67.
The main objectives of the paper are to decompose Atkinson's measure into within-group and between-group inequality and to compare it with decompositions of inequality measures, like the Gini coefficient, variance of logarithms, Theil's entropy index and the square of the coefficient of variation. Atkinson's inequality index is given an interpretation of mean order β and then it is decomposed for population subgroups. Various other measures are considered for decompositions and a variety of decomposition schemes for Gini coefficient and other measures in the literature is reviewed and commented upon. Empirical analysis using U.S.A. and U.K. data are performed on the basis of income distribution data classified by family size. For various decomposition schemes, contribution to between size-group and within size-group inequalities are compared in percentage terms. Comparisons are also made over time for the years 1964 and 1974 both for U.S.A. and U.K. and the result indicates that within size-group income inequality has declined while between size group and total income inequality shows an increase. Three important properties of Atkinson's inequality index are proved in the appendix. 相似文献
68.
For paired choice experiments, two new construction methods of designs are proposed for the estimation of the main effects. In many cases, these designs require about 30–50% fewer choice pairs than the existing designs and at the same time have reasonably high D-efficiencies for the estimation of the main effects. Furthermore, as against the existing efficient designs, our designs have higher D-efficiencies for the same number of choice pairs. 相似文献
69.
Although good logos are essential for creating brand awareness and brand equity, the effects of logo design features have not been tested empirically. Extending previous findings regarding the effects of design complexity and exposure in advertising to the field of brand logos, two experiments tested the effects of logo complexity and exposure on brand recognition and brand attitude. It was hypothesized that logo complexity moderates the effects of exposure on logo recognition and brand attitudes, such that exposure increases recognition and positively impacts brand attitudes in particular for complex logos. Experiment 1 (N = 68) tested the effects of six unfamiliar logos on recognition (in milliseconds) in a 2 (logo design complexity: simple vs complex) × 2 (logo exposure: one vs four) mixed design. Experiment 2 (N = 164) tested the effects of eight familiar logos on logo recognition and brand attitudes in a 2 (complexity: simple vs complex) × 2 (logo exposure: well-established vs recently established) within-subjects design. Findings showed that increases in exposure led to an increase in brand recognition and to more positive attitudes in particular for complex brand logos, suggesting short-term benefits for simple brand logos, and long-term benefits for complex logos. 相似文献
70.