Exploring technology paths: The development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden 2007-2020

By using socio-technical scenarios, we investigate how present policy choices may affect the development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden. One important choice for policy lies in the balance between general tax exemptions stimulating the market for alternative fuels, and funding of research and development more directly promoting new technology. The implications of this choice are illustrated with four diverging development paths until 2020. In the market-oriented scenarios, we illustrate consequences of breaking the dominance of entrenched technologies and demonstrating a growing market potential for alternatives, but also the risks with a large focus on first generation renewable fuels. In the technology-oriented scenarios, we point out the value of keeping variety among niches in this stage of the transition. In conclusion, if policy is implemented without taking the dynamic forces within the system into account, there is a risk that any measure leads the system into a dead end. But if policy strives to balance the development in different parts of the technological system while making use of various prevailing forces of change, a multitude of different efforts can contribute to the development of a more sustainable transport system.     

Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap

The output gap is a crucial concept in the monetary policy framework, indicating demand pressure that generates inflation. However, its definition and estimation raise a number of theoretical and empirical questions. This paper evaluates a series of univariate and multivariate methods for extracting the output gap in Norway, and compares their value added in predicting inflation. We find that models including the output gap have better predictive power than models based on alternative indicators, and they forecast significantly better than simple benchmark models. Furthermore multivariate measures of the output gap perform better than the univariate gaps. Comments from two anonymous referees, Q. Farooq Akram, Tommy Sveen, Ken West, Fredrik Wulfsberg and seminar participants in Norges Bank are gratefully acknowledged. All mistakes remain our own. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of Norges Bank.     

The Rise of Individual Performance Pay

Existing empirical evidence suggests that individual performance pay is more prevalent in human‐capital‐intensive industries. We introduce a model that can contribute to explain this. In a repeated game model of relational contracting, we analyze the conditions for implementing peer‐dependent incentive regimes when agents possess indispensable human capital. We show that the larger the share of values that the agents can hold up, the lower is the implementable degree of peer‐dependent incentives. In a setting with complementary tasks, we show that although team‐based incentives are optimal if agents are dispensable, it may be costly, and, in fact, suboptimal, to provide team incentives when the agents become indispensable.     

Resource orchestration for team‐based innovation: a case study of the interplay between teams,customers, and top management

The resource orchestration concept has attracted considerable interest in contemporary innovation research. However, resource orchestration is a manager‐centric framework and not all of its components necessarily reflect the value‐creation processes of organizations focusing on team‐based innovation. Drawing on a single‐case study of an innovative Swedish software company, we illustrate the roles of autonomous teams, customers, and top managers in orchestrating resources for team‐based innovation. Moreover, we introduce the concept of resource flocculation to describe how key actors co‐orchestrate various resource orchestration processes. The study contributes to research on resource orchestration by adapting the model to the conditions characterizing team‐based innovation, and to research on team‐based innovation by addressing how innovative teams are related to overall resource orchestration processes and, ultimately, organizational innovation outcomes.     

Voluntary management earnings forecasts and discretionary accruals: evidence from Danish IPOs

This paper seeks to determine whether Danish managers exercise discretionary accruals to reach earnings forecast targets they voluntarily specify in conjunction with initial public offerings (IPOs). Because the Danish accounting and legal environment is more permissive than the US, we use Denmark as a natural laboratory for learning how business would occur without strict rules, enforcement and sanctions. Danish managers often volunteer pro forma financial statements for results that are expected to occur subsequent to the IPO. We examine a sample of 58 Danish firms that issue voluntary management earnings forecasts in connection with IPOs that occur between 1984 and 1996. The evidence we uncover strongly suggests that pre-managed earnings are adjusted toward these targets. In contrast with Kasznik's (1999 Kasznik, R. (1999). On the association between voluntary disclosure and earnings management. Journal of Accounting Research, 37: pp. 57–81 [Google Scholar]) results related to voluntarily forecasting American firms, managers of Danish firms exercise discretionary accruals to mitigate earnings forecast errors regardless of whether pre-managed earnings are less, or greater, than the IPO forecast amount.     

Under the influence of the team? An investigation of the relationships between team autonomy,individual autonomy and social influence within teams

This study contributes to the debate about whether teamwork facilitates or constrains the single team member's autonomy at work. We investigate whether team autonomy can explain employees' individual autonomy, the teams' informal influence on its members and employees' desire for either individual or team influence. Questionnaire data were collected among employees in four Danish companies from different industries with various types of team organization: permanent, project-based and mixed teams. The results of the multiple regression analyses show that team autonomy is positively associated with individual autonomy, which is neither moderated by the team's ability to make the employee feel responsible nor by team support. Team autonomy is positively associated with facilitative social influence, i.e. team reward, team support and we find a negative association between team autonomy and team coercion. Moreover, employees who experienced more team than individual autonomy wanted their teams to control more work issues compared to employees who experienced lower team than individual autonomy.     

A Review on Possible Approaches for Detecting Early Warning Signs in Projects

In this paper, we attempt to provide an overview of the full extent of early warning detection approaches, which are directly or indirectly addressed in the literature. These approaches can aid project managers in taking corrective actions timely enough for preventing failures. The study is based on a review of the current literature within the field of early warning in project management and our own experiences gained from practice. An analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of each approach and their applications in different contexts are also performed. We conclude that the choice of the most effective approach is arguably dependent on the type of project, organizational culture, and the project environment.     

The Economics of Retailing Formats: Competition Versus Bargaining

We set up a merger game between retailing stores to study the incentives of independent stores to form a big store when some consumers have preferences for one‐stop shopping. Such one‐stop shopping creates complementarity between products, leading in turn to lower prices after a big store is formed but may also lead to an improvement in the bargaining position vis‐à‐vis producers through the creation of an inside option that small stores do not have. We find that big stores will not be formed when the stores' ex ante bargaining power vis‐à‐vis producers is high. Otherwise, an asymmetric situation occurs with only one big store created when one‐stop shoppers are abundant.     

A new estimator for trade costs and its small sample properties

This paper discusses the estimation of parameters of a traditional transportation model, as it is typically present in so-called Takayama–Judge type spatial price equilibrium models. In contrast to previously used estimation methods, observations of regional prices as well as of trade costs are used in a direct estimation of the first order conditions. The proposed method uses bi-level programming techniques to minimize a weighted least squares criterion under the restriction that the estimated parameters satisfy the Kuhn–Tucker conditions for an optimal solution of the transport model. A penalty function and a smooth reformulation are used to iteratively approximate the complementary slackness conditions. Monte-Carlo simulations are used to trace out some properties of the estimator and compare it with a traditional calibration method. The analysis shows that the proposed technique estimates prices as well as trade costs more precisely than the traditional calibration method. It is suggested to apply the same method to a range of linear and quadratic models.