Imaginable surprise in global change science

Decisionmakers at all scales (individuals, firms, and local, national, and international governmental organizations) are concerned about reducing their vulnerability to (or the likelihood of) unexpected events, 'surprises.' After briefly and selectively reviewing the literature on uncertainty and surprise, we adopt a definition of 'surprise' that does not include the strict requirement that it apply to a wholly unexpected outcome, but rather recognizes that many events are often anticipated by some, even if not most observers. Thus, we define 'imaginable surprise' as events or processes that depart from the expectations of some definable community. Therefore, what gets labelled as 'surprise' depends on the extent to which what happens departs from community expectations and on the salience of the problem. We offer a typology of surprise that distinguishes imaginable surprises from risk and uncertainty, and develops several kinds of impediments to overcoming ignorances. These range from the need for more 'normal science' to phenomenological impediments (e.g., inherentunpredictability in some chaotic systems) to epistemological ignorance (e.g., ideological blocks to reducing ignorance). Based on the input of some two dozen scholars at an Aspen Global Change Institute Summer Workshop in 1994 *, we construct two tables in which participants offer many possible 'imaginable surprises' in the global change context, as well as their potential salience for creating unexpectedly high or low carbon dioxide emissions. Improving the anticipation of surprises is an interdisciplinary enterprise that should offer a sceptical welcoming of outlier ideas and methods.     

Feminism and the Physical Cultural Studies Assemblage: Revisiting Debates and Imagining New Directions

Abstract

The relationship between feminism and PCS is complex and an exemplar of the politics of knowledge production. We begin this paper by detailing the evolving relationship between feminism and PCS, and identify two key ways that feminist sport scholars have responded to PCS. Whereas one group has rejected PCS outright, another is reappropriating PCS for their own purposes. Aligning with the latter, in the remainder of the paper we offer one of many possible imaginings of a feminist interpretation of the PCS assemblage. More specifically, we briefly outline how a feminist engagement with some of the key tenets of PCS facilitated new understandings of New Zealand women’s embodied experiences of netball, includingMāori women.In so doing, we reveal what a FPCS approach might look like in practice and highlight ways that feminist scholars have, and can continue to, contribute to the PCS agenda through embodied, theoretical, reflexive, political, contextual and culturally-specific research.     

Determinants of racial differentials in allowance rates for social security disability benefits

Conclusion The results of these models suggest that there may be discrimination in the award process.We find that the award rate for black applicants is relatively lower than that of white applicants with similar characteristics. A significant race and sex effect remains in the variation of the award rate after all eligibility-related factors and other factors have been controlled for.The second model is more interesting, in that the race and sex effects are significant even after looking only at eligible applicants.However, we do not know how much of these effects are caused by our imputation of the eligibility criterion from the survey data instead of the explicit criterion from the program data.     

Preventing wildlife crime with a focus on orangutans: Applying social influence techniques to public education efforts

Orangutans are projected to become critically endangered or extinct this century if humans continue to destroy their habitat. Threats include legal and illegal clearcutting of rain forests to establish palm oil plantations, climate change, and transnational organized crime. This study examines how self-benefit and other benefit appeals, knowledge of threats, concern about habitat loss, and liking orangutans are associated with (a) intent to protect habitat due to licit threats and crimes against wildlife, and (b) seeking information to save habitat. Upon entry to a zoo, 251 (118 men, 128 women, and 5 unknown) persons viewed posters highlighting the benefits of habitat conservation to self or others and completed a survey. Concern, threat knowledge, liking, and self-benefit and other benefit appeals accounted for 28% of the variance associated with intent to take action to protect the habitat. Integrating social influence principles into zoo displays and addressing barriers that prevent conservation behavior are discussed. The ideas in this paper are relevant to many primates and endangered species.     

Chinese FDI in the French and Australian Wine Industries: Liabilities of Foreignness and Country of Origin Effects

This paper explores the recent evolution of Chinese investment in the wine industries in the Bordeaux region of France and Western Australia (WA). The study identifies variations in the nature of the investments undertaken, which are not always consistent with existing theory. We explore how these differences impact on the liability of foreignness (LOF) experienced (Eden and Miller, 2004; Zaheer, 1995). We find evidence of all three of the categories of hazards identified by Eden and Miller (2004), with unfamiliarity being particularly significant, especially for wholly owned investments. We postulate that differences in context between home and host countries are a key factor explaining both the observed difficulties and the differences in experiences. The findings of our work on LOF, in terms of its nature and mitigating strategies, resonate well with existing theory, although we also find evidence of a Country of Origin (COO) effect, both in terms of Liability of Origin (LOR) and Assets of Foreignness (AOF). The variations in entry mode and LOF, however, are less consistent with existing research and pose questions in relation to the interaction between the home and host contexts, company strategy and LOF.     

A Conceptual Model of Strategic Considerations for International Retail Expansion

Expansion into global markets is a dominant issue influencing most retailers' plans for strategic growth. However,internationalisation is not a viable alternative for every retailer. This paper discusses four independent elements that areconsidered as preconditions that should take precedence in the global expansion decision-making process. These elementscomprise the PLIN Model.     

Operational planning and competitive strategies of male and female retailers

Interest in the managerial practices of females in business has increased over the past decade due to women's increased representation in business. Anecdotal evidence has suggested that women approach decision making differently from men. The purpose of this study is to determine if gender differences regarding managerial strategies exist in the retail setting. Targeted managerial strategies focused on short-term planning processes (personnel, financial, inventory and market planning) and competitive strategies in operation (differentiation, cost leadership and focus). In a sample of 459 retailers from a twelve-state region, MANOVA was used to determine if significant differences in managerial strategies existed between genders. The data on retail competitive strategies suggest that men and women more likely than male business owners to recognize in the importance of differentiation and focus as retail competitive strategies in their business operations. Gender differences were also found in the operational planning areas of market and inventory planning.     

Effect of Message Interactivity on Product Attitudes and Purchase Intentions

ABSTRACT

Social media increasingly allows consumers to interact with businesses, although the effects of this novel technology in the context of public relations are under-examined. Consistent with the ideas proposed by the Elaboration Likelihood Model, the present study conducted a 2 × 3 online experiment with a sample of 131 participants to examine the effect of message interactivity and source authority on consumers' ad attitudes, brand attitudes, and purchase intentions. Message interactivity had a positive effect on ad effectiveness via the indirect pathway of perceived informativeness. These findings relate to the ELM in that they suggest that users processed information more centrally than peripherally, or that interactivity had a larger effect on consumer attitudes than authority. Theoretical and practical implications of study results are discussed.     

Aquaculture imports from Asia: an analysis of U.S. consumer demand for select food quality attributes

The increasing share of imported food in the United States, coupled with highly publicized incidents of food contamination and adulteration in Asia, particularly China, is posing new challenges for consumers and food safety regulators. In this study, we focus on imported shrimp and tilapia, to evaluate consumer willingness‐to‐pay (WTP) for enhanced food safety, use of antibiotics, and eco‐friendly environmental practices. Results show that U.S. consumers were willing‐to‐pay more for enhanced food safety, followed by the use of no antibiotics and environmental friendly production practices. American consumers in our sample were found to have a higher WTP for domestic products and placed more trust on U.S. government verification of product attributes followed by third‐party certification.     

"Marie Howland—19th‐Century Leader for Women's Economic Independence

Marie Howland (1836–1921) was an important working‐class figure in the early U.S. women's movement who mounted an inspired challenge to separate spheres and the prevailing domestic ideology. Well before Edward Bellamy and Charlotte Perkins Gilman, she called for domestic work to be respected, paid, and collectively organized. Howland made it her life's work to remove barriers to economic independence for women through the overhaul of social and economic institutions that posited the home as the center of female existence and exploited workers. She wanted women to have the economic freedom to marry for love, not economic necessity, leave a bad marriage, survive widowhood, or not marry at all. By delving into Howland's early years in rural New Hampshire and the Lowell textile mills, her close association with radical bohemians in New York City, and her later participation in experimental communities, the following treatise provides a long overdue, comprehensive account of her life and work. My inquiry reveals how Marie Howland promoted women's freedom within a class analysis, rejecting Marxism and embracing the utopian socialist theory of Charles Fourier. It also offers an in‐depth look at her popular utopian novel, Papa's Own Girl, where a cooperative community of economically independent women and enlightened men replace the patriarchy and individual competitiveness of the emerging, but by no means entrenched, industrial order. In addition, my treatise focuses on Howland's efforts to put ideas into practice. Unwilling to limit her activism to intellectual discussions, she lived in a Fourierist household in New York City, a cooperative settlement in western Mexico, and the single‐tax community of Fairhope, Alabama. She pushed the Grange and the International Workingman's Association to focus on women's issues. She also made sure that her personal relationships with men were based on free love and mutual respect, not economic necessity and legal contract. I also examine how Howland dedicated her life to changing gender and class relations, but made little effort to improve conditions for African Americans. Like many white reformers, she drew on popular scientific theories of biological difference to justify the unequal treatment of African Americans. Besides shedding light on important intellectual and social developments, like phrenology, free love, Fourierism, the Grange, and theosophy, this examination of Marie Howland reveals the complexities, possibilities, and limitations of the women's rights movement before the passage of the 19^th Amendment.