Model‐free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets

We examine directional predictability in foreign exchange markets using a model‐free statistical evaluation procedure. Based on a sample of foreign exchange spot rates and futures prices in six major currencies, we document strong evidence that the directions of foreign exchange returns are predictable not only by the past history of foreign exchange returns, but also the past history of interest rate differentials, suggesting that the latter can be a useful predictor of the directions of future foreign exchange rates. This evidence becomes stronger when the direction of larger changes is considered. We further document that despite the weak conditional mean dynamics of foreign exchange returns, directional predictability can be explained by strong dependence derived from higher‐order conditional moments such as the volatility, skewness and kurtosis of past foreign exchange returns. Moreover, the conditional mean dynamics of interest rate differentials contributes significantly to directional predictability. We also examine the co‐movements between two foreign exchange rates, particularly the co‐movements of joint large changes. There exists strong evidence that the directions of joint changes are predictable using past foreign exchange returns and interest rate differentials. Furthermore, both individual currency returns and interest rate differentials are also useful in predicting the directions of joint changes. Several sources can explain this directional predictability of joint changes, including the level and volatility of underlying currency returns. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Protecting cultural heritage tourism sites with the ubiquitous sensor network

Cultural heritage tourism resources are vulnerable to natural and human disasters: once damaged or destroyed, it is hard to restore them to their original condition. This study examines an online and real-time early fire detection system, using advanced information technology and a ubiquitous sensor network to protect cultural heritage tourism resources. It notes the danger of accidental and deliberate fires being started by cultural site visitors, as well as natural fires from lightning strike or nearby forest fires. The system architecture, sensor and network design, and software design of the fire detection system are presented, based on experimental work at the Bulguksa temple in South Korea, a UNESCO World Heritage Site. Lessons learned from building and operating the Ubiquitous(U)-Bulguksa system are presented to provide guidelines for applying ubiquitous sensor networks to protect other cultural heritage tourism resources.     

The Productivity Commission Inquiry Report into Mental Health—A Commentary from a Health Economics Perspective

The Productivity Commission's Inquiry Report into Mental Health makes extensive recommendations to improve population mental health as a means of further enhancing productivity and economic growth. While providing an invaluable high‐level vision for reforming current mental health and social systems at a programmatic level, it lacks supporting evidence that would guide implementation of specific recommendations. We discuss important methodological considerations used to measure the output of the mental health sector and present clinical and cost‐effectiveness evidence, supporting selected recommendations. We suggest the development of a broad‐based health technology assessment process to facilitate consistent decision making across health and other government sectors.     

The Effects of Governance on Classification Shifting and Compensation Shielding

Prior research (e.g., Dechow, Huson, and Sloan 1994 ) documents that, on average, compensation practices appear to shield CEO pay from income‐decreasing special items. In some circumstances, compensation shielding can be efficient. For example, it may encourage CEOs with earnings‐sensitive pay to take an action that reduces current earnings but nevertheless enhances value. Compensation shielding can be inefficient in other circumstances, such as when a board of directors is captured by an overly powerful CEO or the magnitude of negative special items has been overstated (e.g., by shifting core expenses into special items). This paper explores whether strong governance can explain cross‐sectional variation in compensation shielding, and whether stronger governance and auditing are associated with less shifting of expenses. We find that strong corporate governance mechanisms, as captured by board (and committee) independence, the Sarbanes‐Oxley (2002) Act (SOX) and its related governance reforms, and switches to Big 4 auditors, are all associated with less compensation shielding. While our evidence suggests that strong overall governance is associated with a reduction in manipulation of core earnings through classification shifting in the cross‐section, we find inconclusive evidence to suggest that board independence or SOX influence classification shifting.     

Assessing the impact of green supply chain practices on firm performance in the Korean manufacturing industry

As a growing number of customers tend to view corporate social responsibility (CSR) as a key purchase decision criterion, demands for CSR including environmental sustainability have accelerated in today's business world. To meet such demands, many firms consider embracing environment-friendly business practices. However, many firms are still hesitant to implement those practices due to sceptical views about their real managerial benefits. Although the previous literature confirms the positive link between a firm's commitment to environmental sustainability and its performance, the varying degree of impact of different kinds of environment-friendly supply chain practices on the firm's operational performance is still unknown. To fill the void left by prior research, this paper aims to classify various types of green supply chain management (GSCM) practices and then assess the impact of each of these distinct types on the firm's operational performances (especially manufacturing and marketing performance). Also, this paper examines how the firm's organisational profiles such as firm size affect the particular firm's choice of GSCM practices. Our experimental results reveal that the chosen type of GSCM practices influences the firm's performance differently.     

The dual analytic hierarchy process to prioritize emerging technologies

Recently, an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been frequently used as a proper tool for a wide variety of decision-making situations in fields such as government, business, industry, healthcare, and education. In this article, we will mainly focus on the use of the AHP to select proper emerging technologies for future R&D at a country level. For successful completion of our project, we propose to use the dual AHP (DAHP) which consists of the regular AHP and the Bayesian type AHP. This DAHP performs useful features when decomposition of the main criteria is desirable but is not technically feasible via the conventional AHP. As an empirical application, appropriate electronic device technologies for future R&D in Korea are found by the DAHP, which reveals that DAHP-led technologies selection (or DAHP-led resources allocation) at a country level is a many-faceted problem.     

Tourists' perceived value and behavioral intentions based on the choice attributes of wellness tourism

This study was carried out to examine the wellness that tourists wanted to fulfill through wellness tourism and identify the relationship between tourists' perceived value and their future behavioral intentions. To perform this study, residents aged 20 or older living in Seoul who are interested in wellness tourism were surveyed, and a total of 401 valid responses were used for analyses. The findings suggest that particular attributes of wellness tourism had a positive relationship with ‘emotional value’ except ‘physical wellness’. Also, a positive relationship was observed between utilitarian value, epistemic value, and all particular attributes of wellness tourism.     

The complementary effect of intellectual property protection mechanisms on product innovation performance

This study assessed the effect of simultaneous implementations of different intellectual property (IP) protection mechanisms on a firm's product innovation performance (PIP). The study categorized seven widely-used IP protection mechanisms (IPPMs) into two groups: formal and informal. Complementarity was then tested within and between the formal and informal groups of IPPMs. The result showed that there existed complementarity when multiple IPPMs were implemented from the same groups. Throughout an additional analysis on the moderating effect of the industrial complexity in technology, it was found that the ‘between groups' combination effect was also existed but varied from even negative to positive concluding that industrial complexity of technology moderates the effects of combinations of IPPMs on a firm's PIP. These results imply that the use of multiple IPPMs is effective but the effect varies by the technological complexity of industry.     

Antecedents of customer participation in business ecosystems: evidence of customers’ psychological ownership in Facebook

Customers can influence the health of business ecosystem through their participation. What are the determinants of customer participation at the business ecosystem level? This study addresses this question by proposing a research model integrating the organizational socialization of customers, customer participation, and psychological ownership. It proposes customers’ psychological ownership as an antecedent of their participation in the business ecosystem. No study to date has empirically examined customer participation in business ecosystems. This study tests the hypotheses based on online survey data from 397 Facebook users. The results show that psychological ownership is a significant determinant of customer participation in the business ecosystem via word-of-mouth (WOM) and boycott intention. The result of our study also indicates that customer socialization significantly affects customer participation in the individual firm, which in turn leads to an increased psychological ownership. This study (a) broadens the concept of customer participation by examining it via the business ecosystem lens and (b) highlights WOM and boycott activities as examples of customer participation at the business ecosystem level.