Rational plunging and the option value of sequential investment: The case of petroleum exploration

The potential to invest sequentially in related assets creates a tradeoff between diversification and concentration. Loading a portfolio with correlated assets has the potential to inflate variance, but also creates information spillovers and real options that may augment total return and mitigate variance. We examine this tradeoff in the context of petroleum exploration. Using a simple model of geological dependence, we show that the value of learning options creates incentives for investors to plunge into dependence; i.e., to assemble portfolios of highly correlated exploration prospects. Risk-neutral and risk-averse investors are distinguished not by the plunging phenomenon, but by the threshold level of dependence that triggers such behavior. Aversion to risk does not imply aversion to dependence. Indeed the potential to plunge should be larger for risk-averse investors than for risk-neutral investors. We test the empirical validity of our theory by examining bidding activity in petroleum lease sales. We find significant plunging behavior across a broad sample of oil companies. We also find that privately-held firms pursue even more concentrated (less diversified) prospect portfolios than publicly-held firms—which we attribute to risk aversion rather than size.     

Testing subgame perfection apart from fairness in ultimatum games

We present an experiment designed to separate the two commonplace explanations for behavior in ultimatum games—subjects’ concern for fairness versus the failure of subgame perfection as an equilibrium refinement. We employ a tournament structure of the bargaining interaction to eliminate the potential for fairness to influence behavior. Comparing the results of the tournament game with two control treatments affords us a clean test of subgame perfection as well as a measure fairness-induced play. We find after 10 iterations of play that about half of all non-subgame-perfect demands are due to fairness, and the rest to imperfect learning. However, as suggested by models of learning, we also confirm that the ultimatum game presents an especially difficult environment for learning subgame perfection. Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at . JEL Classification C91, D64, J52     

Financial liberalization,financial sector development and growth: Evidence from Malaysia

The objective of this paper is to examine whether financial development leads to economic growth or vice versa in the small open economy of Malaysia. Using time series data from 1960 to 2001, we conduct cointegration and causality tests to assess the finance-growth link by taking the real interest rate and financial repression into account. The empirical evidence suggests that financial liberalization, through removing the repressionist policies, has a favorable effect in stimulating financial sector development. Financial depth and economic development are positively related; but contrary to the conventional findings, our results support Robinson's view that output growth leads to higher financial depth in the long-run.     

Picking a loser: Strategic surprise in a design and development game

We take a setting in which upstream players produce design ideas and downstream players select among these ideas to develop finished products. Design diversity is valuable at the upstream stage and coordination is valuable at the downstream stage. However, this outcome is not always realized. We show that an intermediary between upstream and downstream can improve on equilibrium outcomes by acting as a coordination and commitment device whose optimal policy must sometimes reward inferior ideas. We apply the model to technology standards, trend‐driven industries, political primaries, and the management of process innovation. We discuss incentives to vertically integrate.     

Do parents,teachers and children use the SDQ in a similar fashion?

Few studies have investigated whether parents’, teachers’ and children’s responses to the strengths and difficulties questionnaire (SDQ) have equivalence. In this study, data from 854 matched questionnaires collected in Malaysia were subjected to tau equivalence confirmatory factor analysis, to assess if all three groups responded to the same target (the child) similarly. We first fitted Goodman’s (Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry, 38, 581–586, (1997a); Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry, 40, 791–801, 1997b) five factor model, but found that this did not fit the model despite attempts to improve and rectify model fit. We thereafter attempted to fit Dickey and Blumberg (Journal of the American Academy of Child Adolescent Psychiatry, 43, 1159–1167, 2004) three factor model, but similarly found a lack of fit. We then undertook an exploratory model with a random half of the data, obtaining a three factor solution, and tested this in a confirmatory tau equivalence model. The Unconstrained Model provided a fit to the data, revealing a similar structure across the three informant groups. As this fit was for the Unconstrained Model, it reveals that groups differ in the value they place on each of the variables but overall that held a similar underlying factor structure. The findings are discussed in relation to the possible cultural issues involved and the use of the SDQ.     

金融中介及关系银行——基于广东外资企业银行融资数据的研究

本文根据外资银行和国有商业银行向在中国境内的外资企业提供的外币贷款和人民币贷款的数据 ,对金融中介及关系银行进行了实证研究。我们的主要结论有两点 :第一 ,企业与银行建立起来的金融业务关系越长久 ,那么其所获得的外币贷款利率就越低。这是对金融中介理论的支持。另外 ,外资控股、第三方担保等因素 ,也具有降低外币贷款利率的效应。第二 ,人民币贷款的利率随着外资企业与更多的银行建立和保持合作关系而降低。人民币贷款主要是由我国商业银行提供。如果商业银行间的竞争仅仅是用来作为信贷定价的主要决定因素 ,而不是用来推进金融创新 ,提供高质量的金融产品和服务 ,那么这将会损害我国商业银行的获利能力并进而影响金融系统的健康发展。     

Testing the effectiveness of regulatory interest rate risk measurement

A depository institution's interest rate risk (IRR) exposure is the sensitivity of its earnings or market value of equity to changes in interest rates. Since the mid-1980's, bank regulators have developed broadly applied, centralized IRR models which are used to help assess individual institutions' capital adequacy. This paper tests the effectiveness of the earliest of these regulatory IRR models: the incomegap estimates calculated by the Federal Home Loan Bank Board (FHLBB) during the latter 1980's. Despite the many problems caused by the broad application of generic assumptions and the presence of embedded options, we find that the FHLBB gap estimates provided a significant measure of IRR exposure. We believe that these results bode well for the success of ongoing, more sophisticated regulatory modeling efforts.     

Playing safe in coordination games:: the roles of risk dominance, payoff dominance, and history of play

This paper presents results from a series of experiments designed to test the impact on subject behavior of changes in the risk dominance and payoff dominance characteristics of two player coordination games. The main finding is that changes in risk dominance significantly affect play of the subjects, whereas changes in the level of payoff dominance do not. Observed history of play also has an important influence on subject behavior, both when subjects are randomly rematched after each game and when they remain matched with the same individual for a sequence of games.     

Compensating Wage Differentials with Unemployment: Evidence from China

We estimate the economic value of mortality risk in China using the compensating-wage-differential method. We find a positive and statistically significant correlation between wages and occupational fatality risk. The estimated effect is largest for unskilled workers. Unemployment reduces compensation for risk, which suggests that some of the assumptions under which compensating wage differentials can be interpreted as measures of workers’ preferences for risk and income are invalid when unemployment is high. Workers may be unwilling to quit high-risk jobs when alternative employment is difficult to obtain, violating the assumption of perfect mobility, or some workers (e.g., new migrants) may be poorly informed about between-job differences in risk, violating the assumption of perfect information. These factors suggest our estimates of the value per statistical life (VSL) in China, which range from approximately US$30,000 to US$100,000, may be biased downward. Alternative estimates adjust for heterogeneity of risk within industry by assuming that risk is concentrated among low-skill workers. These estimates, which are likely to be biased downward, range from US$7,000 to US$20,000.