Exchange rate determination: a theory of the decisive role of central bank cooperation and conflict

Economists’ faith that variable exchange rates benevolently equilibrate has been empirically disconfirmed. That faith is here tackled at its theoretical core with an exchange rate model that although ultra abstract, includes the undeniable fundamentals of market power and differential goals of central bankers and large-scale private players. It permits a game theoretic analysis under the assumption that all agents maximize their payoffs. The paper then relaxes the assumption of maximising agents, allowing for a more complex and thus realistic second version of the model that is interpretable within SKAT, the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory of risk and uncertainty. In an experimental setting, this second version of the model points to: a) the inability of agents in central banks, governments and the private real and financial sectors to operate in maximising ways; b) destructive central bank conflict; and c) the widely discrepant outcomes arising from the dynamics of individual personality differences. The paper’s theoretical and empirical findings thus both point to the merits of a single world currency.     

Order book characteristics and the volume–volatility relation: Empirical evidence from a limit order market

Using unique data, we address the issue of price formation in a limit order market. A standard volume–volatility relation is documented with the number of trades acting as the important component of volume. The main contribution of the paper is to identify strong evidence that volume, volatility, and the volume–volatility relation are negatively related to the order book slope. These results are robust to the inclusion of several liquidity measures. A significant empirical relationship between the order book slope and the coefficient of variation in earnings forecasts by financial analysts suggests that the slope is proxying for disagreement among investors. Hence, our results support models where investor heterogeneity intensifies the volume–volatility relation.     

The dynamics of premium reserves of life annuities under the regime of Solvency II

The article considers the solvency requirements for a whole portfolio of annuities under the regime of Solvency II. More precisely, the following question is investigated: Which demand of interest on the initial capital – the Solvency II premium reserves – is needed in order to fit the balance for Solvency II capital requirements in the next year? It turns out, that even for a model portfolio of simple annuities with say guaranteed interest rate of 1,25% the demand of interest in one year is greater than 3%. So even if a life insurance company fulfill the capital requirements of Solvency II in 2016 the mentioned effect causes eventually problems in future times.     

Discouraging Rainforest Transformation: An Ex-ante Policy Impact Analysis

Despite extensive efforts made by national and international certification agencies, Indonesian smallholder farmers’ participation in palm oil certification schemes adoption remains low. A fundamental obstacle is the smallholder practice of rainforest transformation into oil palm plantation which is forbidden by the agencies. In this context, we investigate three policies that could lead to a reduction in rainforest deforestation by smallholders: price premium on certified palm oil; the provision of environmental information; contributor recognition. In order to evaluate the influence of the policies ex-ante, we conduct a social dilemma experiment involving rubber and oil palm smallholders in Jambi Province, Sumatra, Indonesia. The findings indicate that the price premium and provision of context-specific environmental information could reduce rainforest transformation. However, a statistically significant effect of contributor recognition was not found.     

The estimation of agricultural policy effects on soil erosion—An application for the bio-economic model MODAM

As agricultural policies affect land use, they have effects on the amount of soil erosion in agricultural regions through changes of the economic conditions of agricultural production. Prices of inputs and outputs, regulations and incentives can change, forcing or encouraging farmers to adopt new crop rotations. This paper shows how a bio-economic model can be used to describe and estimate the effects of policies on agricultural production and the risk of soil erosion at the example of a region in North-Eastern Germany. The model uses both an assessment tool that is based on a fuzzy-logic approach for the estimation of soil erosion risk of cropping practices, and a linear programming model, that simulates farmers’ economic behaviour under the assumption of gross margin maximisation being the main goal of farmers’ actions.The analysed policy options were both a targeted and an untargeted incentive programme for reduced tillage, and a restriction option where high erosive crops are not allowed on high erodible field types. The results show that policy changes can have an impact on soil erosion. Furthermore, soil conservation policies are shown to have different levels of efficiency in terms of reduced soil erosion related to the costs of the policy. In the case of this study, a restriction option was more efficient than the incentive options. The results of such simulations can serve as a decision support for the development of soil conservation policies and help to foresee the effects of general changes of agricultural policies.     

Validating an innovative real-time Delphi approach - A methodological comparison between real-time and conventional Delphi studies

A novel and innovative real-time Delphi technique is introduced in order to address previously identified weaknesses of the conventional Delphi method, such as complicated facilitator tasks, lack of real-time presentation of results, and difficulties in tracking progress over time. We demonstrate how the real-time (computer-based) method increases the efficiency of the process, accommodates expert availability, and reduces drop-out-rates. Modifications in the Delphi procedure (e.g. change of iteration principle) not only increase efficiency but also change the nature and process of the survey technique itself. By identifying and analysing three individual effects (initial condition effect, feedback effect, and iteration effect) we examine whether the modifications in the survey process cause deviations to the survey results. Empirical data obtained from both conventional as well as real-time Delphi studies is analysed based on multiple statistical analyses. The research findings indicate that significant differences between the two Delphi survey formats do not exist and final survey results are not affected by changes in the survey procedure.     

The impact of trade promotion services on Canadian exporter performance

From 1999 to 2006, Canadian firms successfully diversified their exports to destinations beyond the United States while smaller firms increased their share in total exports. Both are explicit aims of the Trade Commissioner Service export promotion program. Exploiting assumptions from the treatment effects literature, we identify a causal, export‐boosting effect. In contrast with existing evidence for Latin American countries, the intensive margin effect—higher exports to existing product‐destination markets—dominates. Effects at the extensive margin—exporting more products to more destinations—are smaller and sensitive to identification assumptions. We interpret this evidence in light of trade models with heterogeneous firms.     

Capstone or deadweight? Inefficiency, duplication and inequity in South Africa's tertiary education system, 1910-93

This paper presents time series on South African tertiary education.The data series presented cover inputs and outputs for the university,technical training and teacher training systems. Modern growththeory has emphasised the importance of human capital, thoughempirical studies have attempted to isolate human capital impactsthrough single aggregate measures that capture only a quantityof human capital dimension. While data analysis in the presentstudy is exploratory in nature, we show that strong qualitydifferentials exist both within and between different partsof the tertiary education system. The methodological implicationfor growth studies is that fully accounting for both the quantityand quality of human capital in aggregate human capital measuresthus faces significant measurement difficulties. The data alsoestablish that discrimination in the South African tertiaryeducation was not simply a question of underresourcing of Blackinstitutions. Quality of output was low, but attaining it wasfrequently very expensive.     

Fiscal news and macroeconomic volatility

This paper analyzes the contribution of anticipated capital and labor tax shocks to business cycle volatility in an estimated New Keynesian business cycle model. While fiscal policy accounts for about 15% of output variance at business cycle frequencies, this mostly derives from anticipated government spending shocks. Tax shocks, both anticipated and unanticipated, contribute little to the fluctuations of real variables. However, anticipated capital tax shocks do explain a sizable part of inflation fluctuations, accounting for up to 12% of its variance. In line with earlier studies, news shocks in total account for about 50% of output variance. Further decomposing this news effect, we find permanent total factor productivity news shocks to be most important. When looking at the federal level instead of total government, the importance of anticipated tax and spending shocks significantly increases, suggesting that fiscal policy at the subnational level typically counteracts the effects of federal fiscal policy shocks.     

Monetary Reference Points of Managers – Empirical Evidence of Status Quo Preferences and Social Comparisons

We explore whether monetary reference points affect managers′ job satisfaction. These reference points include a manager′s own status quo and the incomes of comparable managers within the same firm and also at the market level. Making use of a unique panel data set of managers in the German chemical sector, we find that social comparisons of compensation do affect reported job satisfaction. Both the relative income position within a manager's own firm and a manager's wage rank on the market have positive relations with job satisfaction. There is no evidence of the relevance of status quo considerations once we control for firm‐related pay variables.