Country-specific sentiment and security prices

I study the effect of country-specific sentiment on security prices. I provide evidence that a country’s popularity among Americans affects US investors’ demand for securities from that country and causes security prices to deviate from their fundamental values. Moreover, I find that country popularity is positively associated with the intensity of US cross-border mergers and acquisitions activity, suggesting that country popularity also affects firms’ investment decisions.     

Managerial entrenchment of anti-takeover devices: Quasi-experimental evidence from Korea

With the removal of statute-based anti-takeover provisions during the aftermath of Asian crisis, a significant number of Korean firms started to introduce charter-based measures. In this paper, we make use of this unique situation where firm-level anti-takeover provisions (ATP) vary over time (making firm fixed effects regression feasible) and its amendment requires a shareholder approval (making event study feasible), when investigating the link between ATP and firm performance. Using a sample during 1999–2009, we find that firms with charter-based anti-takeover provisions are smaller in size, have lower inside and foreign ownerships, and upon adoption, experience lower share prices, the extent of which drops with inside ownership. Consistent with the overinvestment hypothesis in Jensen (1986), we also find that these firms increase capital expenditure. Our finding also shows that ATP adoptions are followed by lower profitability and lower dividend payouts. Firms with ATPs also experience greater de-listings after the global financial crisis.     

A Measure of Fundamental Volatility in the Commercial Property Market

The low level of volatility observed in appraisal-based commercial property indices relative to other asset classes has been frequently noted and extensively commented on in the real estate finance literature. However, the volatility of such commercial property indices is only one source of information on the second moment of commercial property returns. The volatility of securitized property returns forms another potential source of information, though there is some uncertainty about how closely the volatility of securitized returns may match the volatility of the underlying asset. Each measure of volatility has a potential source of noise associated with it. This paper proposes a fundamental measure of volatility for the commercial property market by using a stochastic volatility model to filter out the signal in the different sources of volatility information. This allows for different measures of volatility to be decomposed into transitory noise and unobserved fundamental volatility. The suitability of such an approach and the properties of the underlying fundamental volatility series are analyzed using data from the U.K. property market.     

Predictability of Term Spread for Economic Activity with Liquidity Premium Theory

In this article, we explore the predictive content of the term spread based on the liquidity premium theory. We decompose the contribution of the spread into the effect of expected future changes in short rates and the effect of the term premium. We also examine whether the predictive power of the term spread for real economic activity can be enhanced by such a decomposition. The basic finding is that both the expectations effect and the term premium effect are relevant for predicting economic fluctuations. In particular, we find that the decomposition might lead to a better prediction for the business-cycle turning points than the usual term spread.     

Yen-synchronization of floating East Asian currencies: A regime-switching regression model and micro-structural analysis

Using a regime-switching regression model, we find evidence of synchronization between the Swiss-franc exchange rates of floating East Asian currencies and the Swiss-franc–Japanese-yen exchange rate over the period 1999–2006. The volatility of Swiss-franc–East-Asian currencies’ exchange rates is higher during the synchronization period than during the de-synchronization period. Contrary to traditional arguments concerning the yen-bloc, we find that the Export-Similarity Index and Foreign Portfolio Investment between Japan and East Asian countries are the two main determinants of yen-synchronization in the region. Finally, micro-structural analysis shows that the weeks of synchronization is greater when the yen is strong for Korea and Taiwan, but there are no asymmetric responses for Thailand, Indonesia, or the Philippines.     

Regional economic integration and multinational firm strategies

This paper analyzes the effects of regional economic integrations on investment patterns among multinational firms. We develop a model in which heterogeneous firms decide on the optimal foreign direct investment (FDI) strategies for serving trade-integrated regions consisting of asymmetric countries: developed and developing nations. Following reduced trade costs within the trade-integrated region, our model shows that integrating into a regional economic zone affects firms with relatively low productivity levels to enter developing nation within the region via complex FDI – a firm activity of engaging in multiple types of FDI. Specifically, we show that depending on the size of the region respective to the home country, complex FDI involves different investment patterns. Using Korean firm- and plant-level data, we specify a binary choice model to link firms’ choice of FDI strategies with their productivity levels and trade-integrated regions. Our empirical results are consistent with the theoretical implications.     

Entrepreneurial applications of the lean approach to service industries

Service industries have grown significantly in recent years, especially in the advanced economies. The applicability of the Toyota system for manufacturing excellence to other industries has been widely studied. This paper seeks to contribute to this growing body of research by exploring the applications of the Toyota approach, particularly the lean system in the service sector. The paper examines the information systems that have enabled benefit in the service industries, to include vendor-managed inventory systems and variants, and then compares the benefits from information systems in support of supply chains. We also review why enterprise systems provide more opportunities in aiding the implementation of the lean systems. We present a case study of a South Korean supply chain system to demonstrate the entrepreneurial application of such approaches.     

How Persistent is Stock Return Volatility? An Answer with Markov Regime Switching Stochastic Volatility Models

Abstract:  We propose generalised stochastic volatility models with Markov regime changing state equations (SVMRS) to investigate the important properties of volatility in stock returns, specifically high persistence and smoothness. The model suggests that volatility is far less persistent and smooth than the conventional GARCH or stochastic volatility. Persistent short regimes are more likely to occur when volatility is low, while far less persistence is likely to be observed in high volatility regimes. Comparison with different classes of volatility supports the SVMRS as an appropriate proxy volatility measure. Our results indicate that volatility could be far more difficult to estimate and forecast than is generally believed.     

The importance of understanding the shape of diverse ethnic female consumers for developing jeans sizing systems

This study has been conducted to investigate the fit issues related to the current apparel pants and jeans sizing system for diverse consumers, identifying body shape differences among ethnic groups. A total of 1335 women in a certain size range (Misses figure type sizes 2–20) were selected in the study. A Misses figure type size category is commonly used for adult women of average proportion and height. First, the body dimension differences among ethnic groups were examined with a single factor analysis of variance. Second, the fit of pants and jeans for the diverse consumers within the same size category was examined with the current standard sizing system, ASTM D5585 for adult female Misses figure type sizes 2–20. Three cases were programmed within a database: When each consumer selects a size for a pair of jeans based on (1) waist size; (2) hip size; and (3) waist height (usually pants length). And last, the results were analysed with fit comparison plots. Current jean consumers are racially diversified in the US and globally as well. This study revealed that ethnic groups had different fit problems and significant body shape differences. Even within the same figure type size category, a variety of body dimensions existed in each ethnic group. According to the fit problem assessment in this study, consumers within the same body figure type size category could not find the right fit of the pants and jeans within the current sizing system. Half of the female consumers could not find a garment to fit based on waist height (pants length) because the current sizing systems overlooked the effect of diverse consumers. This study will be useful for standardizing organizations to modify current sizing systems for diverse ethnic consumer groups as a demographic factor so that apparel companies could provide better quality of fit for their consumers in the global and local market.