Creating the experience of social change

This paper discusses how the social change theory of P.R. Sarkar is introduced to students of the Australian Foresight Institute's Masters in Strategic Foresight program through an action learning process. Through action learning, the student can come to appreciate the qualitative difference in understanding that can be obtained through taking an ‘integral’ or meta-perspective on social change processes. Such a perspective increases the efficacy and scope of all social interventions.     

Can futures research contribute to tourism policy?

Following a definition of the basic terms employed, the author examines the interrelationships between planning, policymaking and forecasting. The main trends in futures research are described, and some forecasting methods and techniques conventionally used in tourism studies are considered. Criteria are derived by which tourism policy-makers could measure the usefulness of forecasts presented to them.     

The demand for rental housing: Evidence from the Housing Allowance Demand Experiment

This paper provides new evidence on the price and income elasticities of demand for rental housing by low income households. Housing expenditures of households participating in the Housing Allowance Demand Experiment and receiving housing allowances in the form of a proportional rent rebate are analyzed. These rent rebates experimentally vary the effective relative price of housing and thus enable estimation of the price elasticities. Natural income variation enables estimation of income elasticities. Analysis is carried out using two functional forms and a variety of models of housing dynamics. The estimated income and price elasticities of demand are 0.36 and −0.22, respectively. When the sample is restricted to include only households headed by couples, the elasticity estimates are 0.47 for income and −0.36 for price. These estimates are lower (in absolute value) than have been previously estimated and it is suggested that this may be due to the low-income nature of the sample.     

A suggested taxonomy for marketing thought: The case of lacking applied development and research in marketing

An examination of marketing literature reveals a surpricing deficiency of articles discussing theoretical applications in marketing. These deficiencies are largely in the area of specific, practical, everyday applied marketing. This article casts the literature into an overall taxonomy of marketing thought and development, highlighting the deficiency. Then the article discusses the deficiency positing reasons for its continued existence. It is thought that such a taxonomy might better help marketers identify critical need areas that might well result in unusually productive findings and advances important to all marketers. EDITOR'S FOOT-NOTE: Reviewers have agreed that marketing has no Taxonomy and needs one, but that a full study and statement would be a Herculean task. The paper published here is presented as a beginning and, as the author himself states, “in the hope to stir controversy, debate, and effort.”     

AN EXCHANGE RATIO DETERMINATION MODEL FOR MERGERS: A NOTE

One of the most important financial and economic issues involved in corporate mergers is the determination of the exchange ratio between the shares of the acquiring firm and the acquired firm. The model presented in theis paper is based on the dividend growth model. Since growth expectations are crucial in an exchange ratio negotiation, the model derived here, which explicitly incorporates these growth expectations, is relevant. In contrast, Larson and Gonedes' exchange ratio expressions are in terms of price-earnings multiples. The model presented here provides an exchange ratio expression for the buying firm and one for the selling firm. Both expressions are a function of one variable—the post-merger growth rate as perceived by each party. There are two important features of the model: (1) it provides boundary values for negotiation; and (2) it can be used to study the effect of firm characteristics on the bid-and-asked exchange ratios.     

DETERMINANTS OF THE RATINGS AND YIELDS ON CORPORATE BONDS: TESTS OF THE CONTINGENT CLAIMS MODEL

A contingent claims model for corporate bonds is tested on newly issued bonds of firms with very simple capital structures. Two default risk measures derived from the model — firm return standard deviation (σ) and leverage (D/V) — explain approximately 78 percent of the variation in the agency ratings on the bonds, based on a probit analysis. Model yield premiums explain almost 60 percent of the variation in market yield premiums. In both analyses, however, firm size is a significant additional variable, suggesting that the contingent claims model is not robust to changes in scale. The assumption of nonstochastic interest rates also appears to be an important misspecification. Institutional restrictions on investments in speculative grade bonds, however, do not affect market yield premiums on such bonds, and thus do not appear to represent a serious misspecification.