Studying (Small) businesses with the Michigan Employment Security Commission longitudinal data base

This paper addresses the usefulness of a longitudinal data file constructed from records on employers from the Michigan Employment Security Commission. We describe the main features of the data file, which includes quarterly (and in some cases, monthly) data from the third quarter of 1978 through the first quarter of 1983, plus the fourth quarters of 1983–87. We then illustrate the uses of the data with two examples: (1) studying changes in the Michigan economy, in particular the early growth and survival of new units of different sizes; and (2) studying the behavior of wages and employment following changes in ownership.Judith Connor and Steven Heeringa are primarily responsible for Section II and the Appendix, John Jackson for Section III, and Charles Brown for Section IV.     

Capitalism and democracy in the 21st century: a Kaleckian interpretation of a Schumpeterian problem

The paper reinterprets Schumpeter's views on the dynamic effects of taxation, as originally expressed in Crisis of the Tax State, from a Kaleckian perspective. In light of Schumpeter's rejection of Keynesian and Marshallian approaches to taxation, the paper argues that a recently developed Kaleckian approach provides an appropriate basis from which to analyse the effects on the business cycle of balanced changes in the structure of taxation. It is shown that, under certain shifting assumptions, increases in the taxation of wages or profits will stimulate investment and attenuate the amplitude of the business cycle. Ultimately, the shifting of taxes reduces to a conflict over income shares. The changing distribution of income in the United Kingdom in recent years suggests that investment is likely to remain sluggish unless there is a significant reversal of income shares. This may give rise to increasing economic and political tensions into the 21st century.     

The Theory of International Trade

How to answer a question in ‘A’ level economics? Graham and Mair Dawson, both teachers of economics, give all the information necessary to write a DIY model answer.     

Youth on the road: Reflections on the history of tramping

Tourism is conventionally traced to the eighteenth century Grand Tour of aristocratic youth which, it is then suggested, was gradually democratized and adopted in modified form by the middle classes. In such a perspective, the road culture of contemporary youth travelers would simply represent one form of this democratized elite tradition. This paper argues instead that contemporary road culture is better seen as an upwardly rather than downwardly mobile cultural form. Tramping originated as a well-institutionalized travel pattern of working class youth. Despite its instrumental functions, it always had touristic components, serving as the young workingman's Grand Tour. When, in the course of the nineteenth century, it declined as a labor institution, it was romanticized and adopted by middle class youth for exclusively tourist purposes.     

The coming of age of major giving

The beginning of the 21st century may well usher in a golden age of major gifts. Not only are those donors born at the beginning of the twentieth century distributing their wealth, but ‘Baby boomers’ and ‘Generation X’ are accumulating significant assets at much younger ages. Each generation appears able and willing to make larger donations to charities. By rethinking major gifts strategy charities can benefit from the increasing wealth and affluence.Copyright © 2000 Henry Stewart Publications.     

Incrementality of SME Loan Guarantees

In many countries, loan guarantee programs are important elements of government policy with respect to small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). If loan guarantee schemes are to be effective, a majority of firms obtaining assistance through such a scheme ought not to be able to obtain financing from existing sources: a property known as incrementality or additionality. This paper describes a new approach to measuring incrementality. This work uses a two-stage process to estimate the incrementality of loans made under the terms of the Canada Small Business Financing (CSBF) program. First, a logistic regression-based model of loan outcomes (essentially a credit-scoring model) is estimated based on a large representative sample of SMEs. The resulting model was consistent with prior expectations and exhibited high levels of goodness-of-fit. The model was then employed to classify a sample of firms that had received loans under the terms of the loan guarantee scheme. Incremental loans ought to be classified as “turndowns” by the model; hence the proportion of loan guarantee recipients that the model classified as turndowns is a direct measure of incrementality. For the CSBF loan guarantee program incrementality was estimated (with 95% confidence) as 74.8±9.0%.     

The effect of experience with a brand imitator on the original brand

Imitating the look of an existing successful brand is a common occurrence in today's crowded marketplace. It was found that a negative experience with an imitator brand increased the evaluations of the original brand. A positive experience with the imitator was shown to have the opposite effect, and there was a decrease in the evaluations of the original brand. Subjects also indicated they would be likely to purchase the positive imitator over the original at only a 10 percent price reduction.