Trade and Financial Integration in East Asia: Effects on Co‐movements

In this paper we explore three important areas where deeper trade and financial integration in East Asia can influence: (1) business cycle co‐movements in the region, (2) the extent of risk sharing across countries and (3) price co‐movements across countries. We find evidence that trade integration enhances co‐movements of output but not of consumption across countries. Especially the fact that trade integration does not raise co‐movements of consumption as much as that of output is interpreted as trade integration does not improve the extent of risk sharing. Co‐movements of price arise most significantly as trade integration deepens, lowering the border effects and allowing better opportunities for resource reallocation across countries. In contrast, financial integration demonstrates much weaker evidence of enhancing co‐movements across countries. Deeper financial integration improves price co‐movements weakly but does not enhance output or consumption co‐movements at all. However, since the current level of financial integration in East Asia is quite low, our evidence is too early to firmly determine the role of financial integration.     

The Assessment: Games and Coordination

Coordination problems arise in a multitude of economic interactions.Recent advances in the field of game theory have shed new lighton these problems and the ways in which they might be analysed.This issue of the Oxford Review of Economic Policy first examinessome of the theoretical dimensions to this literature, as wellas some empirical and experimental insights. It goes on to applysome of these ideas to a number of important policy areas, includingmacroeconomic policy coordination, public good provision, andproblems of political coordination.     

Measuring producer welfare under output price uncertainty and risk non-neutrality

Procedures to measure the producer welfare effects of changes in an output price distribution under uncertainty are reviewed. Theory and numerical integration methods are combined to show how for any form of Marshallian risk-responsive supply, compensating variation of a change in higher moments of an output price distribution can be derived numerically. The numerical procedure enables measurement of producer welfare effects in the many circumstances in which risk and uncertainty are important elements. The practical ease and potential usefulness of the procedure is illustrated by measuring the producer welfare effects of USA rice policy.     

What If Immigrants Had Not Migrated?

A bstract .   Despite strong theoretical arguments and models about international migration, very few empirical studies rigorously test these arguments and models. The purpose of the present study is to analyze determinants and consequences for international migration, focusing particularly on the returns to post-hoc international migration. The present study compares residential well-being of Korean international migrants in the United States with that of their hypothetical well-being if they had not migrated. Our suggested models of the selectivity corrected returns to various characteristics for immigrants and nonimmigrants enable us to estimate the "opportunity well-being" of individuals and households; that is, the well-being of immigrants-had-they-stayed and of nonimmigrants-if-they-had-immigrated. The data for our analyses are drawn from the 1990 Korea Census Data and the Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS) of the 1990 U.S. Census. In either case of migrants-had-they-stayed or of nonimmigrants-had-they-migrated, international migration to the United States has a significant and positive effect on the probability of homeownership, especially for women. The results show that the predicted probability of homeownership attainment increases as a result of migration by 15 percent to 16 percent for women and by 8 percent for men. The study concludes that migrating to the United States offers better opportunities for homeownership than staying in Korea does, particularly for women.     

The cross‐Euler equation approach to intertemporal substitution in import demand

This paper addresses the empirical dilemma in identifying and estimating the parameters governing the intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) for import demand. We propose a new concept, the cross‐Euler equation, for overcoming this empirical dilemma. IES parameters are estimated by exploiting the cointegrating restriction implied by the cross‐Euler equation. Further, by comparing the IES estimates from the cross‐Euler equation to those from the standard Euler equation, we test the hypothesis whether import demand is affected by nuisance factors. Using the US data, we found imported goods consumption to be robust against nuisance factors, but not for domestic goods. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Liquidity and Twin Crises

This paper proposes a simple analytical framework for understanding 'twin crises'– i.e. crises where a currency crisis and banking crisis occur simultaneously and reinforce each other. The distinguishing feature of such crises is the spill‐over effects across financial institutions through collateral constraints, declines in market values of assets, currency mismatches on the balance sheet and the endogenous amplification of financial distress through asset sales. We explore the role of liquidity and the role of monetary policy in such crises. In particular, a central question is whether raising interest rates in the face of a twin crisis is the appropriate policy response. Raising interest rates has two countervailing effects. Holding the domestic currency becomes more attractive (other things being equal), but the value of the domestic banking system falls due to the fall in asset prices. When assets are marked to market, there is a potential for endogenously generated financial distress that leads to a collapse of asset prices, as well as the exchange rate. It is thus possible that raising interest rates can have the perverse effect of exacerbating both the currency crisis and the banking crisis.     

Underwriter syndication and corporate governance

The main purpose of this paper is to examine underwriters’ response to issuers’ ineffective corporate governance. Given the growing importance of corporate governance for the success of equity offerings, we examine this response using a sample of seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). Previous studies suggest various rationales behind underwriter syndication, such as risk sharing, market-making, information production, certification, and monitoring. We offer an information-asymmetry-reduction hypothesis for the persistence of underwriter syndication. We argue that less effective corporate governance decreases information credibility, which, in turn, increases information asymmetry, leading underwriters to increase syndicate size to mitigate subsequent agency problems. Consistent with this prediction, we find that the size of the underwriter syndication is inversely related to proxies that measure the effectiveness of corporate governance. Results remain robust even after controlling for other confounding factors.