Robust future‐oriented technology portfolios: Black–Litterman approach

We propose a new way of constructing more robust technology portfolios to overcome the weaknesses of previous technology portfolios based either on the judgments of experts or on quantitative data such as patents. Instead of using historical data, the method of nonlinear forecasting enables us to forecast the future number of patent citations and accordingly, to use the forecast as a quantitative proxy for future returns and risks of technologies. Using the Black–Litterman portfolio model, we improve the accuracy of inputs by combining the future views of experts with the future returns and risks of technologies. As a consequence of this, the portfolio becomes strongly future‐oriented. With our approach, corporate managers use both experts and data more effectively to build robust technology portfolios. In particular, our method is of great help for companies launching new businesses because the method avoids heavy dependency on internal experts with little knowledge about emerging technologies. A company entering the molecular amplification instrument market is exemplified herein.     

The influence of experiential marketing and activity involvement on the loyalty intentions of wine tourists in Taiwan

This study assesses a behavioural model that uses latent variables of experience of experiential marketing, activity involvement, satisfaction and loyalty intentions of wine tourists in Taiwan. A total of 871 usable questionnaires were collected. Confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation model analysis were performed using LISREL 8.70 for Windows. Analytical results, which further elucidate the behavioural models of wine tourism, suggest that experience of experiential marketing, activity involvement and satisfaction significantly affect the loyalty intentions of wine tourists. Satisfaction played a mediating role in the behavioural model. This study provides further insight into the behavioural modelling of wine tourism.     

Unsolicited Versus Solicited: Credit Ratings and Bond Yields

This paper is the first attempt to analyze Standard & Poor’s unsolicited and solicited ratings by using bond-yield data in Japan. Our findings show that there are differences in firm characteristics between firms seeking solicited ratings and those that receive unsolicited ratings. Firms with solicited ratings have less information asymmetry and are more likely to be owned by foreign investors, generate more revenue from exports, be cross-listed in the US, and have higher firm quality. But, firms with unsolicited ratings pay higher costs for debt, and their bond prices react more strongly to credit-rating changes. Yield spreads for new bonds with unsolicited ratings are higher than those with solicited ratings, because unsolicited ratings have higher information asymmetry, and investors therefore demand higher yields. We find that bond-price reactions to the announcements of unsolicited rating downgrades (upgrades) are negative (positive) and significant, while bond prices do not react significantly to solicited rating downgrades or upgrades.     

Factors affecting the success of women entrepreneurs

The main purpose of this paper is to examine the relation that exists between the skills possessed by women entrepreneurs and their motivations, barriers and performance. Thus, on the theoretical framework we review literature some aspects that are related to the skills required of a business owner: level of education, previous occupational experience, and prior business expertise and management skills. The analysis undertaken shows that the lack of education and managerial skills of women business owners are two of the most important variables when it comes to understanding the motivations and the difficulties they have to face.     

Globalisation and technological convergence in the EU

We employ a two-step approach in investigating the dynamic transmission channels under which globalization factors foster technical efficiency by combining a dynamic efficiency analysis in the stochastic frontier framework, and a time series approach based on VAR and spectral analysis. Using the dataset of the 18 EU countries over 1970–2004, we find that both import and FDI are significant factors in spreading efficiency externalities and thus accelerating technology catch-up in the EU. In particular, the impacts of the import are more prominent in the short-run while those of FDI play a more important role over the longer-run. Furthermore, the impacts of the import are pro-cyclical only in the short-run whereas those of FDI are pro-cyclical mostly over the medium- to the long-run. This evidence is broadly consistent with the sample observation that the recent slowdown of the EU productivity has been closely related to the corresponding FDI decline especially after 2000. Hence, any protection-oriented policy will be likely to be more detrimental for the EU.     

Sustainable Ecotourism in Amazonia: Evaluation of Six Sites in Southeastern Peru

It is widely assumed that ecotourism offers sustainable development opportunities in under‐developed countries, but little is known about the variables contributing to differential sustainability of multiple ecotourism ventures within a geographic region. This investigation compared differences among rainforest ecotourism sites in Tambopata, Amazonian Peru. These rainforest lodges act as stewards of the surrounding habitat. Different histories and philosophies regarding tourism resulted in varied levels of economic, social and ecological sustainability. This study quantitatively examines the differential sustainability of multiple ecotourism sites in a small geographic region. Tourism in Tambopata has a potential for sustainability of local communities and natural resources. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Getting too personal: Reactance to highly personalized email solicitations

Research on the effects of personalized messages on consumers’ behavioral responses has yielded mixed findings. We explore how e-mail personalization influences click-through intentions. Our results suggest that consumers experience personalization reactance in response to highly personalized messages when the fit between the offer in the message and consumers’ personal characteristics is not explicitly justified by firms. Consequently, consumers are less willing to respond favorably to the offer. Results of two studies suggest that this effect primarily emerges for consumers who perceive the utility of the service to be relatively low. For those consumers with higher perceived utility, justification of personalization is less important because highly personalized messages are less likely to elicit reactance.     

Comment on “A new simple square root option pricing model”

Câmara A. and Wang Y.‐H. ( 2010 ) introduce a simple square root option pricing model where the square root of the stock price is governed by a normal distribution. They show that their three‐parameter option pricing model can outperform the Black–Scholes option pricing model. We demonstrate that their assumption possesses an internal inconsistency in that the square root of the stock price can take on negative values. We generalize and revise their assumption so that the internal inconsistency can be avoided, and introduce a new square root option pricing model. The difference in option prices calculated from the two models may not be trivial. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark     

Tempered stable structural model in pricing credit spread and credit default swap

In this paper, we explore the features of a structural credit risk model wherein the firm value is driven by normal tempered stable (NTS) process belonging to the larger class of Lévy processes. For the purpose of comparability, the calibration to the term structure of a corporate bond credit spread is conducted under both NTS structural model and Merton structural model. We find that NTS structural model provides better fit for all credit ratings than Merton structural model. However, it is noticed that probabilities of default derived from the calibration of the term structure of a bond credit spread might be overestimated since the bond credit spread could contain non-default components such as illiquidity risk or asymmetric tax treatment. Hence, considering CDS spread as a reflection of the pure credit risk for the reference entity, we calibrate it in order to obtain more reasonable probability of default and obtain valid results in calibration of the market CDS spread with NTS structural model.