Dynamic Spatial Competition Between Multi‐Store Retailers

We propose a dynamic model of an oligopoly industry characterized by spatial competition between multi‐store retailers. Firms compete in prices and decide where to open or close stores depending on demand and cost conditions, the number of competitors at different locations, and on location‐specific private‐information shocks. The model distinguishes multiple forces in the spatial configuration of store networks, such as cannibalization of revenue between stores of the same retail chain, economies of density, competition, consumer transportation costs, or positive demand spillovers from other stores. We develop an algorithm to approximate a Markov Perfect Equilibrium in our model, and propose a procedure for the estimation of the parameters of the model using panel data on number of stores, prices, and quantities at multiple geographic locations within a city. We also present a numerical example to illustrate the model and algorithm.     

A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)?

We compare 330 ARCH‐type models in terms of their ability to describe the conditional variance. The models are compared out‐of‐sample using DM–$ exchange rate data and IBM return data, where the latter is based on a new data set of realized variance. We find no evidence that a GARCH(1,1) is outperformed by more sophisticated models in our analysis of exchange rates, whereas the GARCH(1,1) is clearly inferior to models that can accommodate a leverage effect in our analysis of IBM returns. The models are compared with the test for superior predictive ability (SPA) and the reality check for data snooping (RC). Our empirical results show that the RC lacks power to an extent that makes it unable to distinguish ‘good’ and ‘bad’ models in our analysis. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

UNCERTAIN INCOME,UNCERTAIN TAXES AND RICARDIAN EQUIVALENCE*

L. K. C. Chan (1983) and R. B. Barsky et al. (1986) have demonstrated that a tax cut financed by bonds to be repaid from proportional income taxes on uncertain future income, by reducing the latter's riskiness, stimulates current consumption - Ricardian equivalence does not hold. However, their two-period models exclude the possibility that future taxes are uncertain. In this paper a three-period model is developed that, by allowing the government two periods in which to collect taxes, introduces ex ante tax rate uncertainty. This renders the result concerning Ricardian equivalence ambiguous. By comparison, taxes levied as lump sums and via a ‘lottery’ respectively produce the ‘usual’ effects (zero and negative) on consumption.     

Environment–Flexibility Coalignment and Performance: An Analysis in Large versus Small Firms

This paper takes a wide-ranging transnational look, within the frame of he European Union, at the differences between large and small firms based on practices of flexibility. More specifically, the research aims to evaluate whether small firms form a homogeneous body in applying flexible practices as opposed to large firms, as well as observing the differential effects on performance when there are discrepancies in the coalignment levels between a firm's actual flexibility and that required by the environment. The hypotheses are tested using data from 417 European firms. The results reveal that (1) good coalignments between actual and required flexibility (flexibility fit) have a greater influence on business performance in the case of small firms; (2) there are significant differences between small and large firms as regards operative flexibility, strategic flexibility, financial flexibility (organizational slack), and performance. The large firms analyzed coalign their flexibility fit better in their various dimensions (structural, operative, and strategic); (3) the degree of metaflexibility can be greater among small firms, which represents a greater information processing capacity, thus enabling the flexibility fit to be constantly coaligned to changes in the environment. However, a greater metaflexibility is not immediately reflected in the flexibility fit; and (4) this greater flexibility fit among large firms can be favored by their greater financial flexibility.     

Anti‐dumping's Happy Birthday?

The purpose of this paper is to highlight and discuss recent developments in the worldwide use of anti‐dumping (AD) policy as a possible strategic counterpoint to trade liberalisation. First, we review briefly the original intended purpose of AD policy, and reflect on its secondary position on the agenda of current international trade negotiations. Second, we discuss the escalating – and perhaps strategic – use of AD policy, particularly in the developing world, and highlight the roles of both interest groups and the state in determining policy outcomes. Next, we review the state of affairs of AD policy with the world's most active user, the US. In particular, we introduce and discuss the latest important development, the implementation of the ‘Continued Dumping and Subsidy Offset Act of 2000’, which incorporates monetary compensation for petitioners, potentially offering more opportunities for strategic policy behaviour by firms, industries and the state. We conclude the article with a short discussion of directions for future research and some general concerns about the use of AD policy.     

The trade effects of the U. S. generalized system of preferences

Conclusion Subsequent rounds of multilateral tariff reductions and changes in the GSP and other trade arrangements supersede the analysis presented here, but this study still provides some guidance to future analysis of tariff concessions. The review of the literature suggests a need for greater precision in methods and data. The new technique employed here would appear to be appropriate for future analyses of multilateral trade liberalization and of proliferating free trade areas. Our results indicate that extremely optimistic and pessimistic estimates of GSP trade effects should be regarded with skepticism. The GSP has probably had a modest positive impact on LDC exports to the United States.