Job growth in early transition: Comparing two paths*

Small start‐up firms are the engine of job creation in early transition. We ask about differences in their growth across two different transition economies: Estonia, which experienced rapid destruction of pre‐existing firms, and the Czech Republic, which reduced the old sector gradually. We find that the majority of job growth corresponds to within‐industry reallocation. The within‐industry growth of small start‐up firms is similar in the two countries, in line with the convergence to Western industry firm‐size distributions. We also find similar patterns in the evolution of wage differentials between start‐ups and old firms and small differences in the extent of low‐wage employment in start‐ups across the two transition paths. JEL Classifications: J2, J3, J4, L1, O1, P2.     

Pure Altruism,Consumer Behavior and Choice Modeling*

An important assumption underlying non‐market valuation is that it is not the environment but the human preference that is valued. This paper attempts to test whether individual consumer behavior is influenced by a purely altruistic motive, examining the attitude of hikers towards the hypothetical removal of the Muju ski resort from the Mount Togyu National Park in South Korea. Data were collected from samples of hikers and skiers who visited the national park. The respondents were forced to consider trade‐offs between the recovery of the lost environmental assets in the Muju ski resort area, skiers’ additional travel time, and willingness‐to‐pay amounts for the hypothetical environmental improvement. It was found that hikers did not take into account skiers’ disutility represented by additional travel time.     

Location and competition in retail banking

We investigate the impact of banking deregulation during the 1990s on consumer welfare. We estimate a spatial model of consumer demand for retail bank deposits that explicitly accounts for consumer disutility from distance traveled. This is important given the substantial changes in banks' branch networks observed in the data. Our model indicates that cross-price elasticities between banks whose branches are close to consumers (‘close’ banks) are larger than those between ‘far’ banks and more than double the cross-price elasticity of ‘close’ banks with respect to ‘far’ banks. We distinguish between thrifts and other banks and find that within-thrift competitive effects are stronger than within-bank effects or those between thrifts and banks. We use our estimates to predict the effect of changes in market structure on consumer welfare following the branching deregulation of the Riegle–Neal Act of 1994. Our results indicate that the median household gained around $60 per year from the changes. Approximately two thirds of the gains come from within-market changes in market structure. The gains were greater in markets with high initial numbers of banks than elsewhere.     

Assessing supply chain risks with the analytic hierarchy process: Providing decision support for the offshoring decision by a US manufacturing company

This paper reports the process used by a US manufacturing company to assess supply chain risks within the context of an offshore sourcing decision. The case study company was faced with the objective of finding a new supplier for two of its major product lines. Five alternatives were considered: (1) sourcing finished goods from Mexico; (2) sourcing finished goods from China; (3) sourcing parts from China and assembly in the US; (4) sourcing parts from China, assembly in a Maquiladora in Mexico with investment; and (5) sourcing parts from China, assembly in a Maquiladora in Mexico with no investment in the venture. To find the best solution, action research methodology was combined with the application of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Through iterative and structured discussions, 17 risk factors were identified, which were subsequently grouped into main and sub objectives. AHP was then used to evaluate the importance of each risk factor, and to determine the best alternative. This study makes several contributions to the field of purchasing and supply management. First, it provides a comprehensive framework of empirically derived risk factors to be considered in an international sourcing context. Second, it shows how AHP can be used to assess these risk factors and alternatives as part of the framework to facilitate and support the final offshoring decision. And third, it illustrates the successful application of the approach by a US manufacturing company. As such, this paper contributes to the research streams of offshoring and risk management in purchasing and supply, as well as to decision-making under uncertainty and AHP. In addition, it serves as a practical methodology for firms in similar situations.     

Varieties of paternalism and the heterogeneity of utility structures

A principal source of interest in behavioral economics has been its advertised contributions to policies aimed at ‘nudging’ people away from allegedly natural but self-defeating behavior toward patterns of response thought more likely to improve their welfare. This has occasioned controversies among economists and philosophers around the normative limits of paternalism, especially by technical policy advisors. One recent suggestion has been that ‘boosting,’ in which interventions aim to enhance people’s general cognitive skills and representational repertoires instead of manipulating their choice environments behind their backs, avoids the main normative challenges. A limitation in most of this literature is that it has focused on relatively sweeping policy recommendations and consequently on strong polar alternatives of general paternalism and strict laissez faire. We review a real instance, drawn from a consulting project we conducted for an investment bank, of a proposed intervention that is more typical of the kind that economists are more often actually called upon to offer. In this example, the sophistication of current tools for preference attribution, combined with philosophical externalism about the semantics of preferences that makes it less plausible to attribute their literal self-conscious representation to people as propositional attitude content becomes more tightly refined, blocks applicability of the distinction between nudging and boosting. This seems to call for irreducible, context-specific ethical judgment in assessing the appropriateness of the forms of paternalism that economists must actually wrestle with in going about their everyday business.     

Returns to scale and externalities in the consumption and investment sectors

Using data on US manufacturing, I estimate internal returns to scale and external effects for the consumption and investment sectors. I construct panels of data at the industry level and use results of gross output production function estimation to derive implied estimates in a value added specification. For the investment sector, returns to scale appear to be slightly increasing, with evidence of a positive external effect. For consumption, the evidence indicates decreasing to constant returns to scale. I discuss the implications of these results for the empirical plausibility of indeterminacy in recent multi-sector models of the business cycle.     

Valuing GM technologies using real options: the case of drought tolerant wheat in Australia

ABSTRACT

In this article we seek to estimate the value of a partially-developed crop technology from the perspective of the firm developing the technology. Firms need this value estimation to decide whether their technology will earn a sufficient return in the market to justify investing in it. However, determining the (ex-ante) value of the technology before it is commercialised is challenging as the technology is not yet in the market and hence the demand function has not yet been defined. An alternative valuation method is required. We use risk premiums, Monte Carlo simulation and real options analysis and we demonstrate this combination of valuation tools on wheat that is currently being developed in Australia to be drought tolerant. The results indicate that this drought tolerant wheat variety is likely to be adopted by farmers in most regions and has a pre-commercialisation value that justifies continued investment in its development. We also identified South Australia as a region in which the new variety would not be sufficiently valuable to farmers to see them adopt it and we consider possible explanations for this outcome.