Evaluating the Impact of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs

Several developing economies have recently introduced conditionalcash transfer programs, which provide money to poor familiescontingent on certain behavior, usually investments in humancapital, such as sending children to school or bringing themto health centers. The approach is both an alternative to moretraditional social assistance programs and a demand-side complementto the supply of health and education services. Unlike mostdevelopment initiatives, conditional cash transfer programshave been subject to rigorous evaluations of their effectivenessusing experimental or quasi-experimental methods. Evaluationresults for programs launched in Colombia, Honduras, Jamaica,Mexico, Nicaragua, and Turkey reveal successes in addressingmany of the failures in delivering social assistance, such asweak poverty targeting, disincentive effects, and limited welfareimpacts. There is clear evidence of success from the first generationof programs in Colombia, Mexico, and Nicaragua in increasingenrollment rates, improving preventive health care, and raisinghousehold consumption. Many questions remain unanswered, however,including the potential of conditional cash transfer programsto function well under different conditions, to address a broaderrange of challenges among poor and vulnerable populations, andto prevent the intergenerational transmission of poverty.      

Slow boom, sudden crash

Many asset markets exhibit slow booms and sudden crashes. This pattern is explained by an endogenous flow of information. In the model, agents undertake more economic activity in good times than in bad. Economic activity generates public information about the state of the economy. If the economic state changes when times are good and information is abundant, asset prices adjust quickly and a sudden crash occurs. When times are bad, scarce information and high uncertainty slow agents’ reactions as the economy improves; a gradual boom ensues. Data from U.S. and emerging credit markets support the theory.     

Consumer-perceived risk model for the introduction of genetically modified food in Spain

Since the last part of the 20th century, the search for new forms of cultivation and food has basically centred on the application of biotechnology, giving rise to GM foods. Consumer acceptance is conditioned by the risk that they perceive from introducing food into their consumption habits processed through technology that they hardly understand. Besides, information is insufficient in the consumer ambit and moreover, it is influenced by ideological and ethical determining factors. The factors were analysed that influence this consumer-perceived risk through a structural equation model. This study was conducted in Spain, concretely in the province of Alicante, located in the southeast of this country.     

Modelling the sectoral allocation of labour in open economy models

Indivisible labour is not the only type of non‐convexity affecting labour supply decisions. Another type of non‐convexity arises in economies with sectors whenever individuals can work in only one sector at a time. I introduce this restriction into an open economy model with a tradeable and a non‐tradeable sector, and I use lotteries to convexify the consumption possibilities set. This approach implies that the aggregate elasticity of labour supply becomes infinite. I compare the performance of the model with an analogous model in which the labour supply elasticity is finite. I find that there is a disconnect between the response of wages to monetary shocks and the open economy variables. The labour supply elasticity plays a more important role in the transmission of technology and government expenditure shocks to the real exchange rate and the terms of trade.     

Marriage equality and interstate migration

This study examines the impact of state imposed, marriage equality laws on interstate migration prior to the 26 June 2015 U.S. Supreme Court ruling to legalize same-sex marriage in all states. Results of the estimation of a series of probit models suggest that all head of households are more likely to leave states without marriage equality. This estimated impact is significantly larger for household heads in same-sex relationships. When examining the migration choices separately by both sex and relationship type, this result remains significant for female heads of households in different-sex relationships and male heads of households in same-sex relationships. Simulations, using the results of the probit estimations, the analysis of regional trends, and recent rebellions against the Supreme Court ruling indicate that state level, marriage equality laws may be aggravating the imbalanced distribution of same- and different-sex couple households across the country.     

ICT introduction in the city councils. A regional analysis

The peculiarities and heterogeneity of city councils hinder the homogenous implementation of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) in all Spanish regions. This study investigates some city council websites and its aim is to enhance the degree of ICT integration, relating it to municipality size. The websites of six Spanish regions have been analyzed and aspects such as accessibility, e-participation, transparency, website design, and use of channels as well as the usefulness to the user have been investigated. In certain aspects, some regional differences and deficiencies have been observed, particularly in small municipalities. Other issues such as participation or use of languages besides the official ones do not seem to be related to size.     

Entrepreneurs drive community revival in the wake of disaster

This article responds to the points raised by Daniel P. Aldrich, Emily Chamlee-Wright, and Lori Peek in the symposium on our book Community Revival in the Wake of Disaster: Lessons in Local Entrepreneurship (Palgrave Macmillan, 2015).     

A Nonparametric Revealed Preference Approach to Measuring the Value of Environmental Quality

We develop an approach to valuing non-market goods using nonparametric revealed preference analysis. We show how nonparametric methods can also be used to bound the welfare effects of changes in the provision of a non-market good. Our main context is one in which the non-market good affects the marginal utility of consuming a related market good. This can also be framed as a shift in the taste for, or quality of, the market good. A systematic approach for incorporating quality/taste variation into a revealed preference framework for heterogeneous consumers is developed. This enables the recovery of the minimal variation in quality required to rationalise observed choices of related market goods. The variation in quality appears as a adjustment to the price for related market goods which then allows a revealed preference approach to bounding compensation measures of welfare effects to be applied.