The effects of analyst forecasts and earnings trends on perceptions of management forecast credibility

We examine whether analyst forecasts influence investors’ perceptions of the credibility of a good news management earnings forecast. We hypothesize that the effect of analyst forecasts will depend on whether the analyst forecast confirms management’s forecast and the extent to which management’s forecast is consistent with the prior earnings trend. Findings indicate that the positive effect of a confirming analyst forecast is greater when the management forecast is trend inconsistent than when it is trend consistent. The negative effect of a disconfirming analyst forecast does not differ based on management forecast trend consistency.     

A critical review of the 2015 South Korean civil service pension reform

The Republic of Korea’s civil service pension (KCSP) was established in 1960 and has been changed several times to overcome the serious financial burdens it has placed on the country. Major problems related to the KCSP include its structure (low contribution and high benefit) and the country’s rapidly aging population. The authors examine the 2015 KCSP reform, reviewing the reasons for the reform, its process, and its fiscal and policy implications. Reforms in other countries are briefly compared. The paper provides important lessons for researchers and practitioners involved in public sector pension reforms.     

Stock returns,velocity dynamics and inflation volatility

ABSTRACT

Our model relates the variability of stock returns to the variability of consumption velocity and shows that real stock returns tend to co-vary negatively with expected inflation in a period (or regime) of low and stable inflation and to co-vary positively with expected inflation in a period (or regime) of high and volatile inflation. Long-run real stock returns are shown to be positively related to expected inflation. Our empirical results for 20 countries provide consistent support for our propositions, indicating that the standard deviation of the annual inflation rate roughly equal to 10% is the dividing line between negative and positive return-inflation relations.     

Financial crisis and stock market efficiency: Empirical evidence from Asian countries

This paper empirically investigates the effects of the 1997 financial crisis on the efficiency of eight Asian stock markets, applying the rolling bicorrelation test statistics for the three sub-periods of pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis. On a country-by-country basis, the results demonstrate that the crisis adversely affected the efficiency of most Asian stock markets, with Hong Kong being the hardest hit, followed by the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Korea. However, most of these markets recovered in the post-crisis period in terms of improved market efficiency. Given that the evidence of nonlinear serial dependencies indicates equilibrium deviation resulted from external shocks, the present findings of higher inefficiency during the crisis are not surprising as in the chaotic financial environment at that time, investors would overreact not only to local news, but also to news originating in the other markets, especially when the news events were adverse.     

Analysing the performance of managed funds using the wavelet multiscaling method

We propose a new approach for investigating the performance of managed funds using wavelet analysis and apply it to an Australian dataset. This method, applied to a multihorizon Sharpe ratio, shows that the wavelet variance at the short scale is higher than that of the longer scale, implying that an investor with a short investment horizon has to respond to every fluctuation in the realized returns, while for an investor with a much longer horizon, the long-run risk associated with unknown expected returns is not as important as the short-run risk. Using multihorizon Sharpe ratios of six groups of managed funds, we find that none of the fund groups are dominant over all time scales.

Developing the Causal Model of Online Store Success

This article introduces an Online Store Success Model (OSM) that reflects the characteristics of information systems, marketing, and e-commerce, and then empirically test the model. The OSM has five dimensions: system quality, information quality, service quality, trust, and customer loyalty. The model posits the causal relationships between the dimensions. In order to empirically test the model, a research model is developed and empirically analyzed by structural equation modeling using data from 244 customers on 69 online store websites. The results show that system quality significantly influences service quality and trust; information quality significantly influences service quality and customer loyalty; service quality also significantly influences trust and customer loyalty; and trust has a significant influence on customer loyalty.     

Emerging Asian MNCs

Developed countries traditionally account for the lion's share of outward foreign direct investment (FDI) and multinational corporations (MNCs). More recently, however, developing countries are emerging as a significant source of outward FDI and globally influential MNCs. The central objective here is to analyze and compare the main issues facing emerging Asian MNCs today with the main issues which faced developed-country MNCs 30 years ago. Our basic hypothesis is that the two groups of MNCs significantly differ due to both exogenous and endogenous factors. Particularly important are differences in motivation and behaviour, ownership patterns, ownership-specific advantages and the institutional infrastructures of their home countries.     

Loyalty toward online food delivery service: the role of e-service quality and food quality

This study assesses the direct influence of food quality and e-service quality on customer loyalty toward online food delivery (OFD) service and its indirect influence through the mediation of customer satisfaction and perceived value. This study uses a survey of 405 OFD service customers from Bandung, Indonesia. By applying variance-based partial least squares to evaluate the proposed model, this study confirms the direct effect of food quality on online loyalty, but not e-service quality. Further, this study discloses the partial mediation role of customer satisfaction and perceived value on the relationship between both food quality and e-service quality on online loyalty toward OFD services.     

The impact of CSR on corporate reputation perceptions of the public—A configurational multi‐time,multi‐source perspective

This study investigates the connection between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and corporate reputation among the public using fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA). To examine complex processes underlying the reactions of this influential stakeholder group, hypotheses are drawn from the category diagnosticity approach. Thereby, a psychological model of perceived (im)morality is transferred to the CSR context. In line with these hypotheses, positive/negative CSR activities influence reputation in the expected directions (H1a, b), while the effects of specific configurations of CSR activities reveal an asymmetry suggesting a negativity bias (H2). Further analyses confirm that positive effects require a consistent positive performance regarding prior reputations (H3a) and the aggregated CSR activities of several previous years (H3b, c). Moreover, the relevant patterns vary between industries (H4). The present study thus contributes to CSR research by investigating a powerful but hitherto understudied stakeholder group through a category diagnosticity lens combined with a configurational approach to analysis.